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Forums - Sales Discussion - Famitsu Sales: Week 46, 2020 (Nov 09 - Nov 15)

With only the titles in the Top 30 that puts the PS5's attach ratio to 0.5. It's really strange, that would suggest a big portion of digital sales but on the other hand the disc version was the favored SKU by a wide margin.



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Prediction league final results:

ItemAverageActual

Accuracy

Call of Duty: Black Ops - Cold War (PS4)

83,12584,47598.38%

Call of Duty: Black Ops - Cold War (PS5)

18,3756,04532.90%

Sakuna: Of Rice and Ruin (NSW+PS4)

25,25055,8610.00%

Top Predictors

UserBetAccuracyWinnings
kirbsfvg$82557.10%fvg$117
noshtenfvg$9581.38%fvg$60
theDXfvg$70090.01%fvg$560
Woodenfvg$1,00090.60%fvg$812

WoodenPints wins this round!

Closest predictor for every console/game:

ItemPredictionPredicted by

PS5 hardware

125,000kirbs

Xbox Series hardware

27,500Wooden

Demon's Souls (PS5)

25,500Wooden

Marvel's Spider-Man: Miles Morales (PS5)

24,000theDX

Call of Duty: Black Ops - Cold War (PS4)

90,000noshten

Call of Duty: Black Ops - Cold War (PS5)

8,000kirbs

Sakuna: Of Rice and Ruin (NSW+PS4)

40,000noshten



Momotaro is going to be the biggest 3rd Party launch on the Switch, with a initial shipment of around 500K, at this point - you gotta wonder if we will have the first Japanese 3rd Party million seller shipped+digital by the end of the year. 

Age of Calamity initial shipment is expected to be around 300K for comparison. 



Didn't think Spider Man would end up above Demons Souls. PS5's physical software sales feel disappointing, I wish we could know the digital numbers.



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TruckOSaurus said:
With only the titles in the Top 30 that puts the PS5's attach ratio to 0.5. It's really strange, that would suggest a big portion of digital sales but on the other hand the disc version was the favored SKU by a wide margin.

It really isn't that unusual. Knack was bundled with PS4s, but without knack its attach ratio was .7 when digital ratios were much lower.

PS5 digital version has 0.0 attach ratio.

PS5 could only be picked up with random lotteries/ preorders and not bought in store with the games.



noshten said:

Famitsu Switch 3rd Parties 2020 Top 15:

  1. Minecraft (Microsoft) - 413.448 
  2. eBaseball Powerful Pro Baseball 2020 (Konami) - 237.550 
  3. Fishing Spirits (Bandai Namco) - 167.246
  4. Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games: Tokyo 2020 (Sega) - 138.550
  5. One Piece: Pirate Warriors 4 (Bandai Namco) - 117.954 
  6. Taiko no Tatsujin: Drum 'n' Fun! (Bandai Namco) - 101.707
  7. Trials of Mana (Square Enix) - 100.451 
  8. Dragon Quest XI S (Square Enix) - 82.137 
  9. Hatsune Miku: Project Diva MegaMix (Sega) - 78.558 
  10. Persona 5 Scramble: The Phantom Strikers (Atlus) - 65.653
  11. Fitness Boxing (Imagineer) - 62.949 
  12. Shin Megami Tensei III: Nocturne (Atlus) - 59.549 
  13. Final Fantasy Crystal Chronicles: Remastered Edition (Square Enix) - 56.187
  14. Human: Fall Flat (Teyon Japan) - 47.736
  15. Minecraft Dungeons (Microsoft) - 41.437

TOTAL: 1.771.112

  1. Microsoft - 454.885
  2. Bandai Namco - 386.907
  3. Square Enix - 238.775
  4. Konami - 237.550 
  5. Sega - 217.108
  6. Atlus - 125.202

  • Next week Koei enters the chart with Age of Calamity, with Atelier 2 they will easily surpass Square Enix and Sega this year
  • Konami will be the top selling 3rd Party as Momotaro and eBaseball are very likely to surpass 900K combined
  • Microsoft are very likely to be in 2nd place because Minecraft is looking very likely to finish the year with around 600K
  • Derby Stallion, Human: Fall Flat, Sakuna, Taiko & Fit Boxing 2 are the other games that will impact the Top 15 

Very interested to see what the all time third party top sellers list looks like by the end of the year.

Isn't Age of Calamity a Nintendo published game though, even if it's third party developed?



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

curl-6 said:
noshten said:

Famitsu Switch 3rd Parties 2020 Top 15:

  1. Minecraft (Microsoft) - 413.448 
  2. eBaseball Powerful Pro Baseball 2020 (Konami) - 237.550 
  3. Fishing Spirits (Bandai Namco) - 167.246
  4. Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games: Tokyo 2020 (Sega) - 138.550
  5. One Piece: Pirate Warriors 4 (Bandai Namco) - 117.954 
  6. Taiko no Tatsujin: Drum 'n' Fun! (Bandai Namco) - 101.707
  7. Trials of Mana (Square Enix) - 100.451 
  8. Dragon Quest XI S (Square Enix) - 82.137 
  9. Hatsune Miku: Project Diva MegaMix (Sega) - 78.558 
  10. Persona 5 Scramble: The Phantom Strikers (Atlus) - 65.653
  11. Fitness Boxing (Imagineer) - 62.949 
  12. Shin Megami Tensei III: Nocturne (Atlus) - 59.549 
  13. Final Fantasy Crystal Chronicles: Remastered Edition (Square Enix) - 56.187
  14. Human: Fall Flat (Teyon Japan) - 47.736
  15. Minecraft Dungeons (Microsoft) - 41.437

TOTAL: 1.771.112

  1. Microsoft - 454.885
  2. Bandai Namco - 386.907
  3. Square Enix - 238.775
  4. Konami - 237.550 
  5. Sega - 217.108
  6. Atlus - 125.202

  • Next week Koei enters the chart with Age of Calamity, with Atelier 2 they will easily surpass Square Enix and Sega this year
  • Konami will be the top selling 3rd Party as Momotaro and eBaseball are very likely to surpass 900K combined
  • Microsoft are very likely to be in 2nd place because Minecraft is looking very likely to finish the year with around 600K
  • Derby Stallion, Human: Fall Flat, Sakuna, Taiko & Fit Boxing 2 are the other games that will impact the Top 15 

Very interested to see what the all time third party top sellers list looks like by the end of the year.

Isn't Age of Calamity a Nintendo published game though, even if it's third party developed?

Only published by Nintendo in the west. Not the first time they do things this way.



curl-6 said:
noshten said:

Famitsu Switch 3rd Parties 2020 Top 15:

  1. Minecraft (Microsoft) - 413.448 
  2. eBaseball Powerful Pro Baseball 2020 (Konami) - 237.550 
  3. Fishing Spirits (Bandai Namco) - 167.246
  4. Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games: Tokyo 2020 (Sega) - 138.550
  5. One Piece: Pirate Warriors 4 (Bandai Namco) - 117.954 
  6. Taiko no Tatsujin: Drum 'n' Fun! (Bandai Namco) - 101.707
  7. Trials of Mana (Square Enix) - 100.451 
  8. Dragon Quest XI S (Square Enix) - 82.137 
  9. Hatsune Miku: Project Diva MegaMix (Sega) - 78.558 
  10. Persona 5 Scramble: The Phantom Strikers (Atlus) - 65.653
  11. Fitness Boxing (Imagineer) - 62.949 
  12. Shin Megami Tensei III: Nocturne (Atlus) - 59.549 
  13. Final Fantasy Crystal Chronicles: Remastered Edition (Square Enix) - 56.187
  14. Human: Fall Flat (Teyon Japan) - 47.736
  15. Minecraft Dungeons (Microsoft) - 41.437

TOTAL: 1.771.112

  1. Microsoft - 454.885
  2. Bandai Namco - 386.907
  3. Square Enix - 238.775
  4. Konami - 237.550 
  5. Sega - 217.108
  6. Atlus - 125.202

  • Next week Koei enters the chart with Age of Calamity, with Atelier 2 they will easily surpass Square Enix and Sega this year
  • Konami will be the top selling 3rd Party as Momotaro and eBaseball are very likely to surpass 900K combined
  • Microsoft are very likely to be in 2nd place because Minecraft is looking very likely to finish the year with around 600K
  • Derby Stallion, Human: Fall Flat, Sakuna, Taiko & Fit Boxing 2 are the other games that will impact the Top 15 

Very interested to see what the all time third party top sellers list looks like by the end of the year.

Isn't Age of Calamity a Nintendo published game though, even if it's third party developed?

My prediction for the LTD physical EOY:

  1. Minecraft - >1.75M
  2. Momotaro - >800K
  3. Fishing Spirits, DQXI S, Taiko - >600K
  4. Age of Calamity - >450K
  5. MHGU, YW4, M+S Olympics, eBaseball 2020 - >400K
  6. DQB2 >350K
  7. Bomberman R, Jikkyou Powerful Pro Baseball >250K
  8. Fitness Boxing, Human Fall Flat, Derby Stallion, Octopath, Xenoverse 2, Sakuna, Story of Seasons >200K

Top 20 >8.25M

  • Microsoft >1.75M
  • Konami >1.7M
  • Bandai Namco >1.5M
  • Square Enix >1.15M
  • Koei Tecmo >450K
  • Capcom, Sega, Level 5, Marvelous & Imagineer >400K

PS4 TOP 20 LTD:

  1. Monster Hunter: World (Capcom) - 2.564.928
  2. Dragon Quest XI (Square Enix) - 1.368.698
  3. Final Fantasy XV (Square Enix) - 1.042.951
  4. Final Fantasy VII Remake (Square Enix) - 932.821
  5. Kingdom Hearts III (Square Enix) - 861.226
  6. Grand Theft Auto V (Take-Two) - 708.610
  7. Monster Hunter: World - Iceborne (Capcom) - 557.153
  8. NieR: Automata (Square Enix) - 467.485
  9. Metal Gear Solid V: The Phantom Pain (Konami) - 448.554
  10. Resident Evil 2 (Capcom) - 418.236
  11. Dark Souls III (From Software) - 413.021
  12. Persona 5 (Atlus) - 405.455
  13. Yakuza 6: The Song of Life (Sega) - 367.965
  14. Resident Evil 7: biohazard (Capcom) - 365.896
  15. Rainbow Six: Siege (Ubisoft) - 348.882
  16. Dragon Quest Heroes (Square Enix) - 329.934
  17. Kingdom Hearts HD I.5 + II.5 ReMIX (Square Enix) - 293.248
  18. Judgement (Sega) - 284.001
  19. Dragon Quest Heroes II (Square Enix) - 280.542
  20. Battlefield 1 (EA) - 275.924

TOTAL: 12.735.530

Top Publishers:

  1. Square Enix - 5.576.905
  2. Capcom - 2.547.1060
  3. Take-Two - 708.610
  4. Sega - 651.966
  5. Konami - 448.554

The biggest winners as far as moving towards the Switch by the end of the year will be Microsoft, Konami, Bandai from the big publishers. That will continue into next year since it's very clear where the priorities for all three companies are on the Japanese market, Bandai can see expansion easily by providing a wider amount of support and stop with the late ports they've been doing in the past. Konami is in a similar situation with their Football game potentially hitting the system next year. I think the two companies will have plenty of AA games set to launch on the Switch in 2021. 

Koei, Marvelous & Capcom, will be breaking onto the system with Age of Calamity, Monster Hunter Rise, BOND, Atelier 2, Monster Hunter Stories 2, Dynasty Warriors, Oliver Town, Sakuna, Rune Factory 5 etc they would be making substantial gains in the coming quarters. Capcom in particular will become the Top Selling 3rd Party on the system within a very short period of time. 

Marvelous will be the smaller publisher which will make the biggest gains on the Switch. I expect Marvelous to surpass 2 million software by EOY 2021. On the PS3/PS4/PSV/3DS combined Marvelous didn't manage anywhere near this. They are set for some monster growth compared to their sales just a few years ago, and I expect their Asia and Western sales to actually make them a pretty substantial player on the Japanese market. Overall Tencent's investment into them was clearly based on this growth potential. 

While Age of Calamity will be easily Koei's biggest game in Japan since the PS2 days. I expect it to have unusually long legs for a Warriors game due to Breath of the Wild 2 and ongoing support. AoC, Atelier 2, BOND and Dynasty Warriors 9 are signs of strong alignment to Nintendo. 

Finally we have all types of indies that have already been seeing a huge uptick with their sales in Japan and elsewhere. Human Fall Flat, Fitness Boxing surpassing 200K in Japan physically is a sign of this. 

Square, Sega, Level-5 & AAA Western 3rd Parties are probably the biggest losers on the Japanese market due to their inability to adapt their pipelines to the Switch. For Square - Bravely Default 2 is honestly not enough they should have at least two more games that can break the 500K on the Switch next year. Sega and Level-5 need to start to release more exclusive AA on the system in the search of a new hit franchise. 

noshten said:

Just a reminder that Playstation 3 launched on November 11th, 2006, it had pricing similar to what we expect from Playstation 5. Which were ¥49,980 / ¥59,980 depending on the SKU. 

Launching with 88K sales, by the end of 2006 PS3 managed 466K sales in Japan. 

I honestly don't think Sony needs to ship more than 500K in Japan for 2020 and the first week of 2021. If the pricing is closer to ¥60,000 than they probably don't even need to ship 400K to Japan. So overall the vast majority of what they are going to manufacture will end up elsewhere. At this point I'm wondering if PS4 and PS5 combined will be able to sell 1M this year in Japan... 

It was easy to see what will happen with the PS5 in its launch period and the holidays 

It's also easy to expect that franchises that remain exclusive there will continue to decline. Next year will be really slow for PS5 hardware and software. PS3 managed 1.2M hardware and 2.66M software in 2007.

For the PS5 I think the result will be under 800K hardware and software well below 1.5M in 2021, a lot of Japanese pubs to continue with cross gen PS4/PS5 games but with the added factor of 75% of those games also being multiplatform with the Switch. In the past the Playstation ecosystem has far more exclusives across it's portable and home consoles, but times are changing since the transition of the game makers who were focused on AA games have all pretty much transitioned to the Switch.

Next year is going to be crazy in terms of announcements, and those 25% of games exclusive to the Playstation in Japan will be a point of contention as I don't believe the money Sony will be paying will be enough to offset losses in cases where a big game fails like Marvel's Avengers did this year.  



theDX said:

Prediction league final results:

ItemAverageActual

Accuracy

Call of Duty: Black Ops - Cold War (PS4)

83,12584,47598.38%

Call of Duty: Black Ops - Cold War (PS5)

18,3756,04532.90%

Sakuna: Of Rice and Ruin (NSW+PS4)

25,25055,8610.00%

Top Predictors

UserBetAccuracyWinnings
kirbsfvg$82557.10%fvg$117
noshtenfvg$9581.38%fvg$60
theDXfvg$70090.01%fvg$560
Woodenfvg$1,00090.60%fvg$812

WoodenPints wins this round!

Closest predictor for every console/game:

ItemPredictionPredicted by

PS5 hardware

125,000kirbs

Xbox Series hardware

27,500Wooden

Demon's Souls (PS5)

25,500Wooden

Marvel's Spider-Man: Miles Morales (PS5)

24,000theDX

Call of Duty: Black Ops - Cold War (PS4)

90,000noshten

Call of Duty: Black Ops - Cold War (PS5)

8,000kirbs

Sakuna: Of Rice and Ruin (NSW+PS4)

40,000noshten

Looks like analysts got the hardware shipments right but were massively off in the shipments for Sakuna and we all fell into the trap of dropping our predictions to low expecting smaller shipment numbers.



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