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Forums - Sales Discussion - I think Nintendo Switch sales will be above PS5 for 2-3 years

2021 is absolutely in the bag for Switch.

In 2022 Switch sales will still be too strong for the PS5 to overcome. This thread is yet another instance where PS fans conveniently forget how good Switch's software pipeline is and that Switch serves both the home console and handheld market. There won't be a sharp dip in Switch sales, especially because Europe and Other regions remain strong growth areas for Nintendo; Switch started with modest numbers there and that in turn means that the saturation point in those regions will be hit later than in North America and Japan, so global sales will remain strong.

2023 is the first year where the PS5 will have a shot to sell better than Switch, but until then it has to be seen if the PS5 really has 20m+ years in it which a portion of PS fans believes. Much of it will depend on the reception of Microsoft's Game Pass and better multiplats on XSX which can both prove to become a notable obstacle for Sony, and Sony is helping Game Pass to get more attention with raised software prices. 17.5m+ might already prove to be challenging if Microsoft's offerings get traction and that level won't be high enough to beat Switch which will have better models and price reductions by 2023. Yes, Switch still selling ~20m in 2023 isn't out of the cards with continued strong software support and incentives to add more Switch units to a household.



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Mummelmann said:
2021 should be in the bag, but it's unlikely to continue for another 1-2 years following that. That would require either an unprecedented sustained sales curve for the Switch or a historical low for PS consoles. Both seem unlikely at this time. We'll know more about PS sales some time into 2021; launch windows are a really poor metric for extrapolating future sales. 25 million is a big ask for the Switch for 2021, let's remember the unnatural circumstances for the market in 2020, with the highest ever selling Q2 of any year, starring two consoles in the twilight of their lives. 2021 will likely see a more normal sales trajectory for all parties involved.

This seems logical enough. I think we can assume the Switch will do over 16 million, which it has done each year so far, but we can't say from the start that the PS5 won't manage something special next year either. I think Switch will win out one final year on the existing models (a price cut could extend that). It will be interesting to see what happens if the long rumored Switch Pro finally drops in 2021.



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RolStoppable said:

2021 is absolutely in the bag for Switch.

In 2022 Switch sales will still be too strong for the PS5 to overcome. This thread is yet another instance where PS fans conveniently forget how good Switch's software pipeline is and that Switch serves both the home console and handheld market. There won't be a sharp dip in Switch sales, especially because Europe and Other regions remain strong growth areas for Nintendo; Switch started with modest numbers there and that in turn means that the saturation point in those regions will be hit later than in North America and Japan, so global sales will remain strong.

2023 is the first year where the PS5 will have a shot to sell better than Switch, but until then it has to be seen if the PS5 really has 20m+ years in it which a portion of PS fans believes. Much of it will depend on the reception of Microsoft's Game Pass and better multiplats on XSX which can both prove to become a notable obstacle for Sony, and Sony is helping Game Pass to get more attention with raised software prices. 17.5m+ might already prove to be challenging if Microsoft's offerings get traction and that level won't be high enough to beat Switch which will have better models and price reductions by 2023. Yes, Switch still selling ~20m in 2023 isn't out of the cards with continued strong software support and incentives to add more Switch units to a household.

Yeah this sounds about right, only thing I don't agree with is Switch perhaps still being around 20mil in 2023.

2021 Switch will be completely dominant, it has a good chance to outsell PS5/Xbox combined (24 to 14+9). Switch should beat PS5 in 2022 as well, though maybe only by a million or two, as I'd guess PS5 will be starting to get into the high teens by then while Switch is falling into the high teens. Really 2022 it could go either way depending on how fast PS5 reaches its peak and how quickly Switch falls from its peak, but I'd expect Switch to more likely than not win 2022 by a bit maybe something like 19mil to 17mil or thereabouts. 2023 PS5 will be king as I'd expect Switch to do no more than 15 million while PS5 might be attempting to hit 20 million that year.



2021: Switch should win by a good lead.
2022: I expect Switch sales below 20M and PS5/XBS close to 20M. Could already be a close race.
2023: Switch will show its age and will fall behind PS5/XBS.



2021 and 2022 seems a fair game imo to think the Switch will beat the PS5 and Xbox SX in those years while still performing great due to a good pipeline of software.While we'll see a first real decline in 2022, it'll manage due to last lasting effect of it's legacy software still kicking while new hardware releases (Switch Pro) will help it maintain a health sales line.Anywoo, 2023 is the first year where we might legit see the Switch fall down to it's counterpart, the PS5 since it'll finally be hitting it's strides as it should.



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Here is my forecast for Switch sales per fiscal year.

2017 FY: 2.74M

2018 FY: 15.05M

2019 FY: 16.95M

2020 FY: 21.03M

2021 FY: 30M

2022 FY: 25M

2023FY:18M

2024FY:9M

2025FY:5M

2026FY:3M

2027FY:1M

My Total sales prediction: 146.77M Units Sold, the 3rd greatest selling console of all time.

Nintendo will easily win 2021, as I expect around 25-28M Switch's to be sold in 2021 compared to the PS5's 18M in 2021. I think the PS5 will sell better in it's first year than the PS4 did, which sold around 14M its first year because this Pandemic will increase sales for PS5 and overall I believe the PS5 is getting more hype in general and with social media gaming is bigger than ever now, which will help PS5 have a great 18M first year. However, there's no way that it beats Switch in 2021 even in a best-case scenerio.

2022 might be more interesting, while I did put 18M sold for fiscal year between March 2022-March2023 for the Switch I did a conservative forecast so I see the Switch hovering around 20M in 2022, I think PS5 could approach close to that number being between 18-21M. However, I think Switch is more likely to win out. And who knows, maybe Switch becomes like the DS where the DS had multiple near-30 Million years before sales started falling off, so we still could see the Switch deep in the mid to upper 20M by 2022, but for now I'm keeping a conservative forecast of 18-21M, will be close but I think the Switch will win slightly in 2022.

2023 is when the PS5 will be more likely to surpass the Switch in yearly sales. However, I still don't think it'll be entirely easy for the PS5 since I still think Switch could sell in the mid teens in 2023. However, I believe by 2023 Nintendo will begin winding down software production for the Switch since the successor might be right around the corner and most people who want a Switch most likely already purchased one by 2023 which means sales will begin to slow down. It's really hard to predict cause we have no idea how the market will react in a couple of years after this unprecedented pandemic event. But I think Switch will likely outsell the PS5 for at least the next 2 years.

Last edited by javi741 - on 16 November 2020

I think Switch can remain ahead in 2021, as their supply chain seems to be back on track, the kind of demand it has now won't evaporate overnight, and games like Monster Hunter Rise and hopefully BOTW2 should continue to push hardware, in addition to the rumored hardware revision.By 2022 though Switch will be 5 years old while PS5 should be hitting its stride, so that's when I expect Sony's system to sit at the top of the hardware chart most weeks.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

Switch is still going to be the best selling hardware in 2021 with New model, BOTW 2, SM3DW, SMT5, MHR, Bayo3, and other unannounced megatons. In 2022 with price cut and aggressive promotion are enough to sell more than any hardware on the market. 2023 is where Nintendo Switch will slow down as the successor news is looming around the corner



I think a lot of it is going to depend on the economy and how everything shakes out. There may be a crash is 2021 due to Collateralized Loan Obligation (CMO with corporates debt instead of housing loans). I also think demand for next gen system is inflated due to the low supply. I don't see the same enthusiasm as there was for the PS4/XBox One. I think people are going to stick with last gen much longer. Developers are still supporting old hardware and will continue until the install bases of Gen 9 hardware gets there. I don't see it happening if interest is weak and the economy collapses.

Switch will also have a much longer life cycle (longer than Nintendo anticipates) due to the same reason. No reason to throw out the Switch if the markets are shit. The Switch is at a prime price point. Nintendo can drop the price $50 on both and still make a profit.. I'm sure their internal plan has already been extended due to internal delays and strong Switch sales. I think the Switch will be a 7-10 year console.

2021, Switch will beat PS5/Series X. Likely 2022. Consoles have 18 months to make it or break it. If Sony and Microsoft can't give a compelling reason to upgrade and/or the market falls out, then expect that they will not beat the Switch OR their previous iterations.



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