Mummelmann said: 2021 should be in the bag, but it's unlikely to continue for another 1-2 years following that. That would require either an unprecedented sustained sales curve for the Switch or a historical low for PS consoles. Both seem unlikely at this time. We'll know more about PS sales some time into 2021; launch windows are a really poor metric for extrapolating future sales. 25 million is a big ask for the Switch for 2021, let's remember the unnatural circumstances for the market in 2020, with the highest ever selling Q2 of any year, starring two consoles in the twilight of their lives. 2021 will likely see a more normal sales trajectory for all parties involved. |
This seems logical enough. I think we can assume the Switch will do over 16 million, which it has done each year so far, but we can't say from the start that the PS5 won't manage something special next year either. I think Switch will win out one final year on the existing models (a price cut could extend that). It will be interesting to see what happens if the long rumored Switch Pro finally drops in 2021.
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