Here is my forecast for Switch sales per fiscal year.
2017 FY: 2.74M
2018 FY: 15.05M
2019 FY: 16.95M
2020 FY: 21.03M
2021 FY: 30M
2022 FY: 25M
2023FY:18M
2024FY:9M
2025FY:5M
2026FY:3M
2027FY:1M
My Total sales prediction: 146.77M Units Sold, the 3rd greatest selling console of all time.
Nintendo will easily win 2021, as I expect around 25-28M Switch's to be sold in 2021 compared to the PS5's 18M in 2021. I think the PS5 will sell better in it's first year than the PS4 did, which sold around 14M its first year because this Pandemic will increase sales for PS5 and overall I believe the PS5 is getting more hype in general and with social media gaming is bigger than ever now, which will help PS5 have a great 18M first year. However, there's no way that it beats Switch in 2021 even in a best-case scenerio.
2022 might be more interesting, while I did put 18M sold for fiscal year between March 2022-March2023 for the Switch I did a conservative forecast so I see the Switch hovering around 20M in 2022, I think PS5 could approach close to that number being between 18-21M. However, I think Switch is more likely to win out. And who knows, maybe Switch becomes like the DS where the DS had multiple near-30 Million years before sales started falling off, so we still could see the Switch deep in the mid to upper 20M by 2022, but for now I'm keeping a conservative forecast of 18-21M, will be close but I think the Switch will win slightly in 2022.
2023 is when the PS5 will be more likely to surpass the Switch in yearly sales. However, I still don't think it'll be entirely easy for the PS5 since I still think Switch could sell in the mid teens in 2023. However, I believe by 2023 Nintendo will begin winding down software production for the Switch since the successor might be right around the corner and most people who want a Switch most likely already purchased one by 2023 which means sales will begin to slow down. It's really hard to predict cause we have no idea how the market will react in a couple of years after this unprecedented pandemic event. But I think Switch will likely outsell the PS5 for at least the next 2 years.
Last edited by javi741 - on 16 November 2020
