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Forums - Sales Discussion - I think Nintendo Switch sales will be above PS5 for 2-3 years

Here are the combined yearly sales of the PS3/360 and the XBO/PS4.  Using VGC Data, figures rounded to thousands.

Switch tops the Gen 7 combined peak if it passes 28.4M sold this year (needs to sell 8.6M in the final 7 weeks of the year - it did 8.1M last year so this should be easy).

Switch tops the Gen 8 combined peak if its passes 27.4M sold this year (needs to sell 7.6M in the final 7 weeks of the year - it will be close to this by Cyber Monday IMO).

How about straight up best years of Gen 7 and Gen 8 consoles, without lining up the years?  Gen 7 stays the same (2011 for both).  Gen 8 goes up to 28.2M (PS4 2017 + XBO 2015).  So the story doesn't change.

Point is, 2020 NSW is on pace to pass the combined best year of sales of both 360/PS3 and XBO/PS4.  That's with supply/production issues hitting the entire industry (RTX 30 series, Ryzen 5000 series, upcoming RDNA series, NSW, PS5/XBS - everything is struggling to meet demand right now).  IMO if Nintendo could have produced/shipped 35-37M NSW consoles this year, they would have.  Yet they are likely only going to sell/ship 28-32M this year and this FY.

Those problems are not going to go away come January.  Nothing magical is going to happen with PS5/XBS that's going to boost them past the performance of the previous 2 gens (save for Series S price point of $300 - we will have to see how that penetrates the market, especially outside of the US).  Reasonable expectation though, is that the combined sales of both Gen 9 consoles should hit 27-29M some time in the Y3-Y5 range (counting 2020 as Y0).  NSW I am certain will stay above 30M in 2021, and at the very least should hold the fort above/around 25M in 2022 (we will have to wait and see how Nintendo's hardware strategy plays out regarding Pro vs. Switch 2).

So I think this thread/prediction is too conservative.  The Switch should hold up well vs both XB/PS combined in the next 2-3 years.  PS5 alone is too easy of a target (especially at $500 price point, especially with Sony not supplying a heavy share of the $400 SKU).



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I agree with the OP.  Just talking calendar years, this year Switch will sell around 30m +/- 3m.  In 2021, Switch is going to sell above 20m, and in 2022 Switch will probably sell close to 20m as well.  For Sony, 20m seems around the peak they can do even in their best years, so they won't be above Switch in 2021 or 2022.  For 2023, that is too far away for me to call.  It could go either way.  In 2024 and 2025, PS5 will be the top selling system.  Then in 2026, PS5 will be a six year old system while Switch's successor will have built up a lot of momentum.  So 2026-2029 will go to whatever Nintendo's next system is.

Basically the 202X years will mostly go to Nintendo.  Sony will be on top for 2-3 years while Nintendo will take the other 7-8 (including this current year).



PS5 will outsell the Switch in 2022.

The switch will sell less in 2021 than 2020 but still significantly more than the PS5 will manage in it's first full year.

I'm amazed people think 2020 isn't the Switch's peak and it will do better in 2021. Just wait till April, Switch is going to get decimated YoY in those months.

Last edited by Barkley - on 15 November 2020

Switch will surely dominate 2021, and will probably still beat PS5 by a bit in 2022. By 2023 Switch should be slowing down to just "good" sales instead of great sales, while PS5 will be hitting great sales by then, so PS5 should be beating Switch in 2023, but then Switch should be replaced sometime in 2024.



Switch will sell more than PS5 and Xbox Series X|S (separately) in 2020 and 2021, maybe in 2022, but the Atari VCS will outsell them all combined.



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YanisFromFrance said:

I honestly think that the Nintendo Switch will be above the PS5, the PS4 in the year 2014 had made 14.5 Million, the Switch will surely make 30 Million in 2021 and it is impossible for the PS5 to achieve this score.

I'm willing to bet it will not. It's very likely to sell above ps5, but it will not make 30m, i'm sure of this.



Prediction: In 5 years Nintendo will Lauch a "Core Mario game"  very similar to Astro Bot. That said, many will Ignore Astro Bot existence and say Nintendo created this concept.

YanisFromFrance said:

I honestly think that the Nintendo Switch will be above the PS5, the PS4 in the year 2014 had made 14.5 Million, the Switch will surely make 30 Million in 2021 and it is impossible for the PS5 to achieve this score.


I'm willing to bet it will not. It's very likely to sell above ps5, but it will not make 30m, i'm sure of this.


Barkley said:

PS5 will outsell the Switch in 2022.

The switch will sell less in 2021 than 2020 but still significantly more than the PS5 will manage in it's first full year.

I'm amazed people think 2020 isn't the Switch's peak and it will do better in 2021. Just wait till April, Switch is going to get decimated YoY in those months.


this, 100% agree with you.

edit: da fuck happened with my post! my Pc gonne crazy here. lol



Prediction: In 5 years Nintendo will Lauch a "Core Mario game"  very similar to Astro Bot. That said, many will Ignore Astro Bot existence and say Nintendo created this concept.

If PS5 performs in a range from slightly worse (85%) to slightly better (115%) than PS4:

Nov 2020-Nov 2021: 12.2-16.6 mi

2021-2022: 13.4-18.17 mi

2022-2023: 16.8-22.8 mi

Beat PS5 in 2020-2021 is a given, even if PS5 sells about two times the numbers of PS4 I still believe on Switch victory. Switch will likely sell about 30 million in that time (remember 2020's November-December are likely the biggest in Switch lifetime)

Beat 2021-2022 numbers is totally realistic, Swich only need to fall less than 40%, for Switch decline that much in only some months they will need to fall of a cliff like everybody keep saying it's happening soon lol

Beat 2022-2023 numbers is pretty unrealistic. Dedicated hardware usually start peaking on its third or fourth year. PS5 would need to have a sloppy start, like PS3, and sell about only 10 million copes for this happen



mk7sx said:

Here are the combined yearly sales of the PS3/360 and the XBO/PS4.  Using VGC Data, figures rounded to thousands.

Switch tops the Gen 7 combined peak if it passes 28.4M sold this year (needs to sell 8.6M in the final 7 weeks of the year - it did 8.1M last year so this should be easy).

Switch tops the Gen 8 combined peak if its passes 27.4M sold this year (needs to sell 7.6M in the final 7 weeks of the year - it will be close to this by Cyber Monday IMO).

How about straight up best years of Gen 7 and Gen 8 consoles, without lining up the years?  Gen 7 stays the same (2011 for both).  Gen 8 goes up to 28.2M (PS4 2017 + XBO 2015).  So the story doesn't change.

Point is, 2020 NSW is on pace to pass the combined best year of sales of both 360/PS3 and XBO/PS4.  That's with supply/production issues hitting the entire industry (RTX 30 series, Ryzen 5000 series, upcoming RDNA series, NSW, PS5/XBS - everything is struggling to meet demand right now).  IMO if Nintendo could have produced/shipped 35-37M NSW consoles this year, they would have.  Yet they are likely only going to sell/ship 28-32M this year and this FY.

Those problems are not going to go away come January.  Nothing magical is going to happen with PS5/XBS that's going to boost them past the performance of the previous 2 gens (save for Series S price point of $300 - we will have to see how that penetrates the market, especially outside of the US).  Reasonable expectation though, is that the combined sales of both Gen 9 consoles should hit 27-29M some time in the Y3-Y5 range (counting 2020 as Y0).  NSW I am certain will stay above 30M in 2021, and at the very least should hold the fort above/around 25M in 2022 (we will have to wait and see how Nintendo's hardware strategy plays out regarding Pro vs. Switch 2).

So I think this thread/prediction is too conservative.  The Switch should hold up well vs both XB/PS combined in the next 2-3 years.  PS5 alone is too easy of a target (especially at $500 price point, especially with Sony not supplying a heavy share of the $400 SKU).

Wow looking at the fact that the Switch ALONE in 2020 is going to outsell the combined sales of the PS/Xbox's best years is insane to me! Who would have ever thought we'll see this day come after coming off the disaster of the Wii U. I remember when everyone was counting Nintendo out and thought it was over for them.

It feels great to see they're achieving this level of success and makes me rest assure that Nintendo we'll never die.



Laughably wrong unless you are counting 2020 as a year.

2021 will have SW > PS5.2022+ will be PS5's. With the outstanding first year of

PS5:SM: Miles Morales

Demons Souls

Ratchet and Clank

Deathloop

GhostWire Tokyo

GT7

Horizon Forbidden West

God of War Ragnorak

RE8

FF16

Hogwarts Legacy

Justice League(and more)

I expect as similarly aggressive and outstanding second year for PS5. PS5 should have no problem reaching around 20m at which point SW will be on its way out.