I think a lot of it is going to depend on the economy and how everything shakes out. There may be a crash is 2021 due to Collateralized Loan Obligation (CMO with corporates debt instead of housing loans). I also think demand for next gen system is inflated due to the low supply. I don't see the same enthusiasm as there was for the PS4/XBox One. I think people are going to stick with last gen much longer. Developers are still supporting old hardware and will continue until the install bases of Gen 9 hardware gets there. I don't see it happening if interest is weak and the economy collapses.
Switch will also have a much longer life cycle (longer than Nintendo anticipates) due to the same reason. No reason to throw out the Switch if the markets are shit. The Switch is at a prime price point. Nintendo can drop the price $50 on both and still make a profit.. I'm sure their internal plan has already been extended due to internal delays and strong Switch sales. I think the Switch will be a 7-10 year console.
2021, Switch will beat PS5/Series X. Likely 2022. Consoles have 18 months to make it or break it. If Sony and Microsoft can't give a compelling reason to upgrade and/or the market falls out, then expect that they will not beat the Switch OR their previous iterations.
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