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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Pachter: "Nintendo should get rid of the Switch console and have only the Lite"

curl-6 said:

In 2009, Pachter predicted that the PS3/360/Wii would be the last console generation ever:

https://v1.escapistmagazine.com/news/view/90443-Pachter-This-Is-The-Final-Generation

The only other job where you could be as off the mark as often as this guy and not get fired would be as a weatherman.

Or a baseball hitter.



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PAOerfulone said:

This guy STILL has a platform to speak?

He sure has. If this thread managed to get 15 pages over this bullshit, means people cares a lot about this guy opinion 





             

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Bofferbrauer2 said:
Alby_da_Wolf said:

VideoGameAccountant said:

I think it's very telling when people on this forum have a better gauge of the Switch and it's trajectory than a man who makes a six figure salary. It's weird he doesn't get the hybrid concept when the Switch. The Lite didn't release until 2019, almost 2 years later, and the system did very well. Clearly people got the Switch concept, but somehow Pachter doesn't. You'd think after the Wii he'd eat some humble pie and study this company rather than shoot off at the mouth. It seems like his job at the firm to say stuff to get headlines. 

To add context to your point: on 1/1/2012, the SNP closed at $1,313. On 1/1/2013, it closed at $1,498, which is about a 14 percent return. So you were better off putting your money into an SNP Index fund than giving it to Pachter. Even worse, those suckers had to pay Pachter his management fee for his 1.2% return.

I have some doubts, how can anyone track his job without the permission of him, his employer and their paying customers?
Probably someone tracked the (crappy) analyses he publicly gives away for free, my point is that if he still has a job what he suggests privately and being paid for it must be quite different. 

He put his investment portfolio public for everyone to see. By doing so, he gave the permission himself. Dunno if they are still public, but back in the day at the very least, they were.

Edit:

http://investorwand.com/investor/8324/michael-pachter

https://www.tipranks.com/analysts/michael-pachter

He bettered himself a bit, back in the day like I said it was only +1.2%...

They give him 4 out of 5 stars! The days when many people had to try many times the hardest exams before passing them must have long gone, if getting such rating in a real life matter harder than any single university exam has become so easy.    
Anyway, he made public his portfolio only, we don't know what investments he suggests to his paying customers, but I guess that both for his own and his customers' investments he must be very careful to avoid SEC and other countries market authorities consider his most outlandish public analyses market manipulation.



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Bofferbrauer2 said:
Alby_da_Wolf said:

VideoGameAccountant said:

He put his investment portfolio public for everyone to see. By doing so, he gave the permission himself. Dunno if they are still public, but back in the day at the very least, they were.

Edit:

http://investorwand.com/investor/8324/michael-pachter

https://www.tipranks.com/analysts/michael-pachter

He bettered himself a bit, back in the day like I said it was only +1.2%...

Thanks for sharing this! That's not just bad performance, it's also unethical for him to push his portfolio as it is not based on making people money (which is what you imply by sharing this information publicly: It sends the message of "hey, I'm an expert! Copy my portfolio!"), but promoting what his clients want him to promote. I work in the investment industry and we help average people with asset generation / wealth building. As VideoGameAccountant pointed out, you could do better by investing in simple Index Funds, which is like the lowest bar to cross - I would have already quit my job if investing in index funds made people more money (karma and stuff... it would be highly unethical).

I think what people have to understand about Pachter is that he is not stupid. He is placing these statements intentionally because he is paid by his clients to influence the gaming industry (if only ever so slightly). Pachter's clients obviously think they can make more money in an environment where Nintendo doesn't thrive. So whenever Nintendo does something right, Pachter tries to argue it is the wrong move. Whenever Nintendo does something wrong, Pachter applauds them for it. If Pachter was simply guessing, you'd expect him to be right 50% of the time on easy success/failure questions. But his track record is so absurdly bad because he intentionally spreads bad analysis. He's basically an industry influencer (at least publicly). 



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"Gaming community should get rid of the useless analysts and have only the useful ones"



don't mind my username, that was more than 10 years ago, I'm a different person now, amazing how people change ^_^

VideoGameAccountant said:

I think it's very telling when people on this forum have a better gauge of the Switch and it's trajectory than a man who makes a six figure salary. It's weird he doesn't get the hybrid concept when the Switch. The Lite didn't release until 2019, almost 2 years later, and the system did very well. Clearly people got the Switch concept, but somehow Pachter doesn't. You'd think after the Wii he'd eat some humble pie and study this company rather than shoot off at the mouth. It seems like his job at the firm to say stuff to get headlines. 

Bofferbrauer2 said:

Even then he's not.

I don't remember where it was, but there was a guy who was tracking his investments, and his earnings were... 101.2%, so a tiny return on investment of only 1.2%. Mind you, that was in 2012 when the stock market was booming, so he was underperforming below the standard

To add context to your point: on 1/1/2012, the SNP closed at $1,313. On 1/1/2013, it closed at $1,498, which is about a 14 percent return. So you were better off putting your money into an SNP Index fund than giving it to Pachter. Even worse, those suckers had to pay Pachter his management fee for his 1.2% return.

I avoided posting in this thread but I feel I need to point out his biggest flaw, it isn't downplaying nintendo. It is downplaying Netflix to the point that investors want him to shut up. 

"This Netflix Analyst Has Cost Investors a 2,000% Return"

"On Nov. 30, 2011, Wedbush Securities analyst Michael Pachter said Netflix was a broken company, and he saw no way to fix it. Pachter advised his clients to sell the stock, and estimated its value at $6 a share."

"Anyone who followed Pachter’s advice missed out on one of the greatest stock market runs in modern history, a return of more than 2,000% over the last decade. Netflix is now worth 250 billion and trades at about $565 a share. Had you invested just $1,000 when Pachter said to sell, you’d have turned that into more than $20,000."

And most of all his opinion hasn't exactly changed much on the fact he believes you should sell. 

"Pachter believes Netflix will remain the dominant player in streaming for years, commanding 30% of the market. And yet, he still has a sell rating. He’s increased his price target all the way from $6 in 2011 to more than $300 today. But that’s about $200 below where they are trading."

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2021-01-24/this-netflix-analyst-has-cost-investors-a-2-000-return

Last edited by Acevil - on 31 March 2021

 

curl-6 said:

In 2009, Pachter predicted that the PS3/360/Wii would be the last console generation ever:

https://v1.escapistmagazine.com/news/view/90443-Pachter-This-Is-The-Final-Generation

The only other job where you could be as off the mark as often as this guy and not get fired would be as a weatherman.

Never even heard of Onlive.

That prediction was by far the dumbest one I have ever heard. Incredible. Pachter should seriously be ashamed of himself. Completely illogical bs.



Acevil said:
VideoGameAccountant said:

I think it's very telling when people on this forum have a better gauge of the Switch and it's trajectory than a man who makes a six figure salary. It's weird he doesn't get the hybrid concept when the Switch. The Lite didn't release until 2019, almost 2 years later, and the system did very well. Clearly people got the Switch concept, but somehow Pachter doesn't. You'd think after the Wii he'd eat some humble pie and study this company rather than shoot off at the mouth. It seems like his job at the firm to say stuff to get headlines. 

To add context to your point: on 1/1/2012, the SNP closed at $1,313. On 1/1/2013, it closed at $1,498, which is about a 14 percent return. So you were better off putting your money into an SNP Index fund than giving it to Pachter. Even worse, those suckers had to pay Pachter his management fee for his 1.2% return.

I avoided posting in this thread but I feel I need to point out his biggest flaw, it isn't downplaying nintendo. It is downplaying Netflix to the point that investors want him to shut up. 

"This Netflix Analyst Has Cost Investors a 2,000% Return"

"On Nov. 30, 2011, Wedbush Securities analyst Michael Pachter said Netflix was a broken company, and he saw no way to fix it. Pachter advised his clients to sell the stock, and estimated its value at $6 a share."

"Anyone who followed Pachter’s advice missed out on one of the greatest stock market runs in modern history, a return of more than 2,000% over the last decade. Netflix is now worth 250 billion and trades at about $565 a share. Had you invested just $1,000 when Pachter said to sell, you’d have turned that into more than $20,000."

And most of all his opinion hasn't exactly changed much on the fact he believes you should sell. 

"Pachter believes Netflix will remain the dominant player in streaming for years, commanding 30% of the market. And yet, he still has a sell rating. He’s increased his price target all the way from $6 in 2011 to more than $300 today. But that’s about $200 below where they are trading."

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2021-01-24/this-netflix-analyst-has-cost-investors-a-2-000-return

To play devil's advocate here....

Assuming the stat given elsewhere in this thread - that he has an average return per prediction of 7.9% - if you take out the Netflix call, he would have a much higher average return.  

Also note that essentially nobody is able to outperform the market in the long-term with common stock.  So, if you take out the Netflix call and his average return goes up to something like 20%, that's pretty good. 

I have no idea what his average return would ve without Netflix though, because I'm not gonna go do the math.  But, I do know that it would be a lot higher, if he has in fact missed Netflix by 2000%.



VAMatt said:
Acevil said:

I avoided posting in this thread but I feel I need to point out his biggest flaw, it isn't downplaying nintendo. It is downplaying Netflix to the point that investors want him to shut up. 

"This Netflix Analyst Has Cost Investors a 2,000% Return"

"On Nov. 30, 2011, Wedbush Securities analyst Michael Pachter said Netflix was a broken company, and he saw no way to fix it. Pachter advised his clients to sell the stock, and estimated its value at $6 a share."

"Anyone who followed Pachter’s advice missed out on one of the greatest stock market runs in modern history, a return of more than 2,000% over the last decade. Netflix is now worth 250 billion and trades at about $565 a share. Had you invested just $1,000 when Pachter said to sell, you’d have turned that into more than $20,000."

And most of all his opinion hasn't exactly changed much on the fact he believes you should sell. 

"Pachter believes Netflix will remain the dominant player in streaming for years, commanding 30% of the market. And yet, he still has a sell rating. He’s increased his price target all the way from $6 in 2011 to more than $300 today. But that’s about $200 below where they are trading."

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2021-01-24/this-netflix-analyst-has-cost-investors-a-2-000-return

To play devil's advocate here....

Assuming the stat given elsewhere in this thread - that he has an average return per prediction of 7.9% - if you take out the Netflix call, he would have a much higher average return.  

Also note that essentially nobody is able to outperform the market in the long-term with common stock.  So, if you take out the Netflix call and his average return goes up to something like 20%, that's pretty good. 

I have no idea what his average return would ve without Netflix though, because I'm not gonna go do the math.  But, I do know that it would be a lot higher, if he has in fact missed Netflix by 2000%.

That analyst profile says it is a 7.9% return for the last year.  You can't take out something that happened a decade ago.



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