SSD's prices are expected to fall from Q4 2020 to 2021 due to overproduction. They're only going to get more affordable next year.

I would assume most console makers would love to cut out an optical drive as the used game and retail distribution channels and productions will certainly have an effect on their revenue. However they can't ignore those who buy games physically (like myself). As always, vote with your wallets and we will have more options on where to buy ;)

We've seen what happened when Microsoft tried it with the Xbox One. Thankfully, that PR nightmare demolished any idea of that happening (at least for now). I don't think any company will dare risk that. It the same with $599 consoles.

IF flash manufacturers aren't just going to sit on their stock, lower production and sell the flash at regular prices.

They did that with DRAM, and seeing SSD pricing basically plateau for the last 4 years doesn't inspire me with much confidence. And yes, I did pre-order the PS5 with the Blu-Ray Drive. I still watch the majority of my movies on Blu-Ray and I like to go bargain diving from time to time.

I think in ten years physical games will be all but extinct on Xbox and Playstation. You'll have to special order them from sites like LRG and the like. That is if the Xbox Format X2-59-Alpha-Part-II-Series-ABC+D, and PS6 even have optical disk readers. Nintendo should still be able to hold onto cartridges for another 10 to 15 years longer than Sony/Microsoft. So by 2040-2045 even Nintendo will have given up on physical media.

I'm not too worried about it though, because it really looks to me like my hobby is changing for the worse. More and more games are just these multiplayer, MTX infested, Gatcha, forever updated monstrosities. You know, the kind of games that won't stay out of the news. Stuff like Fallout76, MK11, Genshin Impact, Fortnite, Fall Guys, etc. Some of these games are fun, but they all would have been infinitely better as standalone $60 releases, with some light DLC.

Anyway, I think gaming as a whole will move into a space where I no longer enjoy it. I'll stick around for the Marios, and Outer Worlds, and God of Wars, and the like. But I think as time goes on, more and more publishers will insist on injecting unfun grind into longrunning series for the sole purpose of pushing MTX in the game. Just look at Wolfenstein Youngblood for a perfect example. Or MK11 and its horrible tower of time grindfest. A game isn't worth collecting if 25% of the game is locked behind an additional paywall. A game isn't worth collecting if it forces you to choose between insane levels of grind and paying extra money to skip said grind. 

TL/DR: Microtransactions will make collecting games pointless long before physical media dies.

My 360 and PS3 games are doing just fine on offline consoles. Thanks.

PS5 SSD speed is 4.5Gb and over 9Gb when counting compression.

So the BD transfering 72MB won't really cover that need.

The OP said "the end of discs" and I think that is the best way to put it.  I can agree that discs are going away.  I don't think carts are going away.

Nintendo is going to keep selling carts, because too many people buy mostly carts.  Also retailers are a great way to market games.  They do a lot of their own marketing which is basically free marketing for the game publishers and console makers.  On the other hand Microsoft is clearly going hard toward the all digital route.  It's going to be somewhat successful, at least, if for no other reason than they just bought Bethesda and a bunch of other game studios.  Hot exclusive games can make any platform successful regardless of how good (or bad) the idea fundamentally is.  So Microsoft wants to get to discless as fast as possible, and they are definitely going to be successful enough that they can't be ignored.

That just leaves Sony.  I think for Generation 10 Sony is going to have to choose who they want to compete directly with.  They will most likely choose Microsoft, as the path of least resistance, since they and Microsoft have been fairly similar in the past.  In this case PS6 will be a discless system that focuses on a digital subscription service.  They might also to choose be more like Nintendo if they feel there is more money on this route.  That means Sony will make something like a "Vita hybrid" with carts.  Either way Sony will have to toss discs aside for one of the other two paths.

Regardless I'd have to agree that the era of discs will end in a few years, but physical media will continue through carts.

As some others here, I don't see physical media switching to carts in the future, which is unfortunately. Yes, in modern days, Blu-Ray is probably not the best option because you can't run a game directly from it anymore. The main reason why carts will not be an option is because publishers want to spend as less money as possible on game distribution but this would mean spending more on a media than current Blu-Ray approach. It's great to see that companies like LRG still exist to bring physical distribution as an option but not everything is in their hands. If console manufacturers decide to ditch disc drives in the future, LRG's business will come to the end because there won't be even a possibility to produce physical media for such consoles.

P.S. The most stupid thing I ever see when the physical vs digital is brought into discussion is that there are a lot of clueless people in "digital" camp who believe that games will suddenly become cheaper once "physical media finally dies". And that physical media is the reason why games are that expensive as they are now.

Discs started becoming impractical for games in the 8th Gen. Disc drives have such a low read speed compared to HDD and SSD. And even triple-layer Blu-ray discs can't always fit all the data needed for a large AAA release now and in the future.

I suppose Sony and Microsoft could go to shrinking the amount of games available physically and choose to release them on small capacity SSD drives. But I don't think such a thing would happen until a PS5 revision or the 10th Gen. Nintendo's game cards for the Switch should continue to serve them well for Switch 2. Just up the capacity.

There is no future for physical media - every year it will decline. It won't take much of a shift for computer game retailers to go and then it will be down to the online retailers.