I think in ten years physical games will be all but extinct on Xbox and Playstation. You'll have to special order them from sites like LRG and the like. That is if the Xbox Format X2-59-Alpha-Part-II-Series-ABC+D, and PS6 even have optical disk readers. Nintendo should still be able to hold onto cartridges for another 10 to 15 years longer than Sony/Microsoft. So by 2040-2045 even Nintendo will have given up on physical media.
I'm not too worried about it though, because it really looks to me like my hobby is changing for the worse. More and more games are just these multiplayer, MTX infested, Gatcha, forever updated monstrosities. You know, the kind of games that won't stay out of the news. Stuff like Fallout76, MK11, Genshin Impact, Fortnite, Fall Guys, etc. Some of these games are fun, but they all would have been infinitely better as standalone $60 releases, with some light DLC.
Anyway, I think gaming as a whole will move into a space where I no longer enjoy it. I'll stick around for the Marios, and Outer Worlds, and God of Wars, and the like. But I think as time goes on, more and more publishers will insist on injecting unfun grind into longrunning series for the sole purpose of pushing MTX in the game. Just look at Wolfenstein Youngblood for a perfect example. Or MK11 and its horrible tower of time grindfest. A game isn't worth collecting if 25% of the game is locked behind an additional paywall. A game isn't worth collecting if it forces you to choose between insane levels of grind and paying extra money to skip said grind.
TL/DR: Microtransactions will make collecting games pointless long before physical media dies.
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