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Forums - Sales Discussion - Your lifetime sales expectations for Xbox Series X|S?

 

Your lifetime sales expectations for Xbox Series X|S?

Less than 30 million 101 8.40%
 
30.0 - 39.9 million 85 7.07%
 
40.0 - 49.9 million 126 10.47%
 
50.0 - 59.9 million 224 18.62%
 
60.0 - 69.9 million 255 21.20%
 
70.0 - 79.9 million 186 15.46%
 
80.0 - 89.9 million 130 10.81%
 
90.0 - 99.9 million 23 1.91%
 
100.0 - 110.0 million 27 2.24%
 
More than 110 million 46 3.82%
 
Total:1,203
Bofferbrauer2 said:
eva01beserk said:

Same concept. Ps now does not get big releases day and day with the console. 

Not everybody needs their games day 1.

I understand the impact is quite a bit lesser, but you seem to play it up as non-existant, which just isn't true.

Its pretty much non existant when we are tallimg about years later. When the game pretty much stoped selling and is being forgotten. For thouse waiting that long you either had no interest in that game or you had no interested in the platform so you would have never been one of the people who are jumping ship. 



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Ryng said:
Farsala said:
This is an extremely early prediction that will likely change as the gen moves on. If the market for PS/XB holds at ~170m

I give it

PS5- 105m NA 35m EU+others 60m JP 10m
XB- 65m NA- 33 EU+others 30m JP 2m

I would be curious about others regional predictions.

An increase in the market would obviously lead to different predictions.

those Japan numbers huuuuuuuuuum, i can see you are rouding the numbers but PS5 won't beat PS4, which should stop at 9.5m in Japan. Probabily around 8m

Also you expect XBS to become the biggest system of all time for MS, above the 1.7m of the 360 and doing x20 times better than XBO which barely did 100k.

I have no idea what XBS will sell but i don't see a big increase over XBO

While Japan is likely off, I only used it to fill in the gaps. Whether XB sells 100k or 2m in Japan is only a difference of 1.9m, and thus is acceptable to me.

Same with PS5 7m or 10m is a 3m gap out of 105m.



One MILLION units!



I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.

Since they bought Bethesda i'd say about around 60M.



CaptainExplosion said:

I'm gonna say 30 million or less, just to be cautious.

For Microsoft to sell me personally on the Xbox XS they'll need to bring back (and I mean PROPERLY BRING THEM BACK) dormant Rare IPs on the system, although I like how Grounded looks so far, and I wanna know exactly what kind of game The Everwild ends up being.

Pretty sure it will do better in the US alone already...



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65-75 million.
I think All-Access program could really take off.



Depends on how they handle Bethesda, depends on if either console overheats/rrod, depends on games and exclusives. Depends how fast technology moves leading to new tech or iterations. I have no idea without knowing these things especially if bethesda purchased ips blocks out sony or not. I can maybe make a prediction once we see if Elder Scrolls VI is coming to ps5 or not.



padib said:
I'm going with high numbers. We know that MS at its worst like with XboxOne are at 50M (I'm not counting the first xbox for obvious reasons). When the xbox is at its best, it sells 84M (Xbox360).

What is going to happen is a tug-of-war between two forces:
Against high numbers: very strong competition from Sony (Marketing, exclusive games)
Pro high numbers: excellent console price, excellent service price (gamepass), great console specs for price, good form factor (esp. Japan), ease of access, new exclusives (Bethesday, new studios), choice of strength (S vs X)

I believe that, while the 360 strived on the back of the PS3, the Xbox Series S|X will thrive on top of Sony's success. This is due to the excellent proposal MS was able to produce this generation, with all the ducks lining in a row on the management end at Microsoft. For that reason, rather, I believe that XB will eat into PS sales rather than the opposite.

I expect both the XB and PS to sell at a common level of 100M, with MS gaining marketshare and Sony losing Marketshare, with Nintendo far above the two with the Switch and its soft successor.

For 3 Generations now, Playstation + Xbox together always made up around 175M. Unless they can expand their market beyond their usual customers, I don't see them going up to 200M.

I do agree that Xbox will do better and Sony do worse than this gen. But my expectations lie around 85M for each of them, not 100M



padib said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

For 3 Generations now, Playstation + Xbox together always made up around 175M. Unless they can expand their market beyond their usual customers, I don't see them going up to 200M.

I do agree that Xbox will do better and Sony do worse than this gen. But my expectations lie around 85M for each of them, not 100M

Yes that's exactly how I see it, Microsoft will gain marketshare this gen. It's not hard to see since they are offering something very competitive so it is likely that people will also own an xbox while owning a PS this gen.

This has been the case for 2 gens now. I would not be surprised if a very large portion of the xbox one installbase also had a PlayStation 4. 

If I where to pull a number out of my ass I would say like 50% of them. So maybe betwen 20-30 million have both or just all including Nintendo. 

Last edited by eva01beserk - on 09 October 2020

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