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Forums - Sales Discussion - Your lifetime sales expectations for Xbox Series X|S?

 

Your lifetime sales expectations for Xbox Series X|S?

Less than 30 million 101 8.40%
 
30.0 - 39.9 million 85 7.07%
 
40.0 - 49.9 million 126 10.47%
 
50.0 - 59.9 million 224 18.62%
 
60.0 - 69.9 million 255 21.20%
 
70.0 - 79.9 million 186 15.46%
 
80.0 - 89.9 million 130 10.81%
 
90.0 - 99.9 million 23 1.91%
 
100.0 - 110.0 million 27 2.24%
 
More than 110 million 46 3.82%
 
Total:1,203
eva01beserk on 05 October 2020
The_Liquid_Laser said:

I really don't know how this is going to turn out.  It's unclear to me if their focus on Gamepass will help or hurt XBox hardware sales.  I voted "less than 30m" mostly because I'm guessing it will hurt hardware sales.  Gamepass subs will probably be a lot more than 30m once the generation comes to an end, but that doesn't mean that Gamepass members have to play on a XBox console.

Exactly my thinking. This is no more than an easy transition out of the console space. 



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eva01beserk on 05 October 2020

At op. Any chance at adding a market share option. With the uncerteanty of the length of This gen or if there is evenngoing to be a mid gen refresh. This numbers are a tough guess. But marketshare should be easiers.



It takes genuine talent to see greatness in yourself despite your absence of genuine talent.

Cerebralbore101 on 05 October 2020

I voted 50-60 million. Nothing significant over this generation, like I predicted back in May.



Ryng on 06 October 2020
Shadow1980 said:

70 million, ±5%, about half of that from the U.S.

This is literally my prediction.

360 sold 43 million in USA and XBO will end at < 30 million, so 35 million LT for XBS seem legit.



Farsala on 06 October 2020

This is an extremely early prediction that will likely change as the gen moves on. If the market for PS/XB holds at ~170m

I give it

PS5- 105m NA 35m EU+others 60m JP 10m
XB- 65m NA- 33 EU+others 30m JP 2m

I would be curious about others regional predictions.

An increase in the market would obviously lead to different predictions.



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Bofferbrauer2 on 06 October 2020

Around 75M is my guess.

XSX/XSS are much more appealing then XBO was this gen and Microsoft didn't hit any major marketing snags like they did before the release of the XBO. And with their recent acquisitions, they can get a great lineup of exclusive games later down the road.

However, the brand got damaged too much in several markets to make much of an impact in them, no matter how good they'd do otherwise. Hence why I don't expect them to go much higher than 80M - but 70M also seems like the floor to me with the reception it got so far.

eva01beserk said:
Below the x1 I would say. Theres less and less reason to own an Xbox thanks to gamepass. I know first years worth of exclusives is not set in stone yet, but it does not look good for the Xbox so far.

So gamepass up, xbox down.

Same could be said for Sony's consoles since more and more of their games are now also available on PC. Yet I doubt you'd say that PS5 will sell less than PS4 did due to this.



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kobka6 on 06 October 2020

I think they will do way better than last gen. Expect to see some people switch to pc due to gamepass.
Xbox one was a **** show, hard to do worse than that.

Preordered Series x



2zosteven on 06 October 2020

seams reasonable here.



steve

derpysquirtle64 on 06 October 2020

Around the same numbers as Xbox One did, I guess. So +/- 10m in each possible side. Somewhere between 40m and 60m



 

eva01beserk on 06 October 2020
Bofferbrauer2 said:

Around 75M is my guess.

XSX/XSS are much more appealing then XBO was this gen and Microsoft didn't hit any major marketing snags like they did before the release of the XBO. And with their recent acquisitions, they can get a great lineup of exclusive games later down the road.

However, the brand got damaged too much in several markets to make much of an impact in them, no matter how good they'd do otherwise. Hence why I don't expect them to go much higher than 80M - but 70M also seems like the floor to me with the reception it got so far.

eva01beserk said:
Below the x1 I would say. Theres less and less reason to own an Xbox thanks to gamepass. I know first years worth of exclusives is not set in stone yet, but it does not look good for the Xbox so far.

So gamepass up, xbox down.

Same could be said for Sony's consoles since more and more of their games are now also available on PC. Yet I doubt you'd say that PS5 will sell less than PS4 did due to this.

One game came to pc. And even then it came 3 years after launch. I think even if more games do come if they still come out way later for pc then there is no issue. Remember that the games come out date and date on the pc and xbox and its absolutly all. Nowhere near the same impact. 



It takes genuine talent to see greatness in yourself despite your absence of genuine talent.