Forums - Sales Discussion - Famitsu Sales: Week 34, 2020 (Aug 17 - Aug 23)

Tagged games:

TOP 25 Switch Famitsu 2020:

  1. Animal Crossing: New Horizons - 5.594.061
  2. Ring Fit Adventure - 870.794
  3. Pokemon Sword / Shield - 722.927
  4. Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 460.713
  5. Smash Ultimate - 350.786
  6. Minecraft - 336.505
  7. Clubhouse Games: 51 Worldwide Classics - 336.490
  8. Splatoon 2 - 285.173
  9. Super Mario Party - 269.243
  10. Pokemon Mystery Dungeon: Rescue Team DX - 259.513
  11. Dr. Kawashima's Brain Training for Nintendo Switch - 247.791
  12. Paper Mario: The Origami King - 231.959
  13. eBaseball Powerful Pro Baseball 2020 - 200.447  
  14. Luigi's Mansion 3 - 172.088
  15. Super Mario Maker 2 - 155.625
  16. The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 152.138
  17. Fishing Spirits - 143.618
  18. New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe - 139.025
  19. Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games: Tokyo 2020 - 138.550
  20. Xenoblade Chronicles: Definitive Edition - 128.989
  21. One Piece: Pirate Warriors 4 - 117.954
  22. Trials of Mana - 100.451
  23. Taiko no Tatsujin: Drum 'n' Fun! - 85.253
  24. Dragon Quest XI S - 82.137
  25. Hatsune Miku: Project Diva MegaMix - 78.558

*could have missed some titles

TOTAL: 11.660.788

2019 TOTAL TOP 50: 13.949.236

Currently just the Top 25 Switch games this year have sold over 11.66M Software, last year the Top 50 had 13.94M sales. Knowing how Ring Fit and Animal Crossing are about to sell during the holidays and having some major 3rd Party games launching, I think this year there is a very good chance for the Top 50 to surpass 20M units. 

  • <5M Animal Crossing
  • <800K Ring Fit
  • <700K Pokemon
  • <400K Mario Kart 8 Deluxe
  • <300K Smash, Minecraft, Clubhouse, 
  • <200K 6 Titles
  • <100K 8 Titles
  • <50K 3 Titles

TOP 10 3rd Party Games 2020:

  1. Minecraft (Microsoft) - 336.505
  2. eBaseball Powerful Pro Baseball 2020 (Konami) - 200.447  
  3. Fishing Spirits (Bandai) - 143.618
  4. Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games: Tokyo 2020 (Sega) - 138.550
  5. One Piece: Pirate Warriors 4 (Bandai) - 117.954
  6. Trials of Mana (Square) - 100.451
  7. Taiko no Tatsujin: Drum 'n' Fun! (Bandai) - 85.253
  8. Dragon Quest XI S (Square) - 82.137
  9. Hatsune Miku: Project Diva MegaMix (Sega) - 78.558
  10. Persona 5 Scramble: The Phantom Strikers (Atlus) - 65.653

TOTAL: 1.349.126

  • Bandai (3)
  • Sega (2)
  • Square (2)
  • Atlus (1)
  • Konami (1)
  • Microsoft (1)

So far this year the biggest 3rd Party titles have been eBaseball, followed by One Piece, Trial of Mana, Hatsune Miku, and Persona 5 Scramble. Evergreen games are still doing decent numbers and DQXIS longevity has been surprising many who didn't expect a long tail for a JRPG. Currently, Bandai is the top publisher followed by Microsoft, Sega, Konami and Square

Now things are finally starting to pick up from a 3rd party perspective. The total for 3rd Parties this year could very well surpass 4M if Bravely and Rune Factory 5 launch in 2020. Momotaro Dentetsu is set to be the biggest Japanese 3rd Party game and should easily surpass DQXIS sales in 2020 and will fight with Minecraft for the annual crown. 

Close to 90% of physical software sales are Nintendo titles. This might change due to no big fall title revealed and Konami, Marvelous, Square, Bandai, Atlus all have games that should easily make the Top 50 Switch titles for 2020. As mentioned before Sega only has Puyo in the fall, Capcom doesn't have anything, Koei will probably enter the chart with Atelier and we still don't know what to expect from Derby Stallion by Land Ho! but as I've said before this game is difficult to predict. 



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The Japanese market has reached a level of monopoly not seen since the NES.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

curl-6 said:

The Japanese market has reached a level of monopoly not seen since the NES.

I'd actually say its closer to late super famicom era. sega was doing jack squat in japan and the PC engine only marginally better



I see there are still a lot of suckers spending hard earned money on Mario Party.



Top 5 Monster Hunter Games Japan:

  1. Monster Hunter Freedom 3 (PSP) - 4.840.930
  2. Monster Hunter Freedom Unite (PSP) - 4.226.265
  3. Monster Hunter 4 (3DS) - 3.591.334
  4. Monster Hunter Generations (3DS) - 2.832.833
  5. Monster Hunter 4 Ultimate - 2.617.803

Two insiders confirming Monster Hunter Switch, it would be kind of funny if by the end of the year Capcom is the top 3rd party publisher because of a single game but it could very well happen. Simply put the franchise remains very popular in Japan and the Switch is killing it.. so 4M is to me the minimum a hypothetical Monster Hunter on Switch would do. 

Most Monster Hunter games launch in the fall but there have been some that launched early in the year such as Monster Hunter World & Monster Hunter Freedom Unite, if it ends up launching this year, that I can understand Nintendo not really needing a big holiday game.

2017 3rd Party Support(2H) with over 50K Sales LTD

  1. Monster Hunter Generations (Capcom) - 309.596
  2. Dragon Ball: Xenoverse 2 for Nintendo Switch (Bandai) - 181.090
  3. FIFA 18 (EA) - 122.998
  4. Sumikko Gurashi: Sumikko Park e Youkoso (Nippon) - 84.957
  5. Fire Emblem Warriors (Koei) - 64.747

2018 3rd Party Support(2H) with over 50K Sales LTD

  1. Taiko no Tatsujin: Drum 'n' Fun! (Bandai) - 505.835
  2. Dragon Quest Builders 2 (Square) - 295.237
  3. Octopath Traveller (Square) - 193.780
  4. Fitness Boxing (Imagineer) - 129.142
  5. Pro Baseball Famista Evolution (Bandai) - 110.954
  6. Dragon Ball FighterZ (Bandai) - 92.697
  7. FIFA 19 (EA) 89.875
  8. Go Vacation (Bandai) - 80.842
  9. My Hero Academia: One's Justice (Bandai) - 52.350

2019 3rd Party Support(2H) with over 50K Sales LTD

  1. Dragon Quest XI S (Square) - 545.836
  2. Fishing Spirits (Bandai) - 480.613
  3. Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games Tokyo 2020 (Sega) - 333.678
  4. Disney Tsum Tsum Festival (Bandai) - 149.562
  5. Story of Seasons: Friends of Mineral Town (Marvelous) - 146.363
  6. Rune Factory 4 Special (Marvelous) - 62.412
  7. SD Gundam G Generation Cross Rays (Bandai) - 60.173
  8. FIFA 20 (EA) - 56.886

Even though they would only get 30% of profits from 3rd Parties there would be actual support this fall for the Switch. We already have eBaseball, which has surpassed 200K. Below are the tiers I would put the games revealed so far and a hypothetical Monster Hunter

  • Multi-Million Seller - Monster Hunter Switch
  • Million Seller - Momotaro Dentetsu 
  • >400K - Taiko no Tatsujin RAP,  Bravely Default 2, Rune Factory 5

I know earlier I said 3rd parties in the Top 50 could approach 5M if Bravely Default 2 and Rune Factory 5 release but if Monster Hunter Switch turns out to be true we might be looking at around 7M physical sales for 3rd parties. Momotaro is still the top of Amazon, Taiko should do pretty well this holiday, there is a bunch of 3rd Party games that should do 100-200K in the fall in fact if there was supply Final Fantasy Crystal Chronicles a game I wasn't expecting too much of could have ended up there. Atelier 2 & SMT III namely being games with high potential. 

Also gotta revise my view on Captain Tsubasa, seems this game will not have great WOM and it doesn't seem it will do too hot at this price. I still think it has potential if they drop the price to Taiko/Fishing Spirits level. Right now it's priced too high for it to really have that much success. Still, there is plenty of time until the holidays for Bandai to make the necessary changes. Wondering if there is going to be any Western 3rd Party reveals that could do well on the Switch this fall, if a Direct is coming up that's the final time we would know about this. 

Last edited by noshten - on 29 August 2020

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Another predictable easy year over year win for Switch, but we are finally past that phase. In 2019 week 35 saw the launch of the updated hybrid SKU with better battery life, so this table is going to get more interesting again.

Week 2019 Weekly 2019 Cumulative 2020 Weekly 2020 Cumulative Difference Weekly Difference Cumulative
1 225.698 225.698 284.827 284.827 59.129 59.129
2 83.136 308.834 116.301 401.128 33.165 92.294
3 71.672 380.506 96.458 497.586 24.786 117.080
4 51.556 432.062 67.987 565.573 16.431 133.511
5 66.448 498.510 75.922 641.495 9.474 142.985
6 61.042 559.552 100.961 741.456 39.919 181.904
7 64.313 623.865 80.312 821.948 15.999 198.083
8 49.139 673.004 41.490 863.258 -7.649 190.254
9 66.453 739.457 53.098 916.356 -13.355 176.899
10 67.624 807.081 50.585 967.941 -17.039 160.860
11 55.478 862.559 57.274 1.025.215 1.796 162.656
12 56.812 919.371 392.576 1.417.791 335.764 498.420
13 49.852 969.223 282.561 1.700.352 232.709 731.129
14 46.850 1.016.073 154.640 1.854.992 107.790 838.919
15 54.101 1.070.174 25.313 1.880.305 -28.788 810.131
16 40.338 1.110.512 27.874 1.908.179 -12.464 797.667
17 42.108 1.152.620 107.104 2.015.284 64.996 862.664
18 41.735 1.194.355 78.731 2.094.015 36.996 899.660
19 41.736 1.236.091 78.731 2.172.746 36.995 936.655
20 32.564 1.268.655 38.380 2.211.126 5.816 942.471
21 25.936 1.294.591 52.557 2.263.683 26.621 969.092
22 33.154 1.327.745 107.593 2.371.276 74.439 1.043.531
23 33.590 1.361.335 68.192 2.439.468 34.602 1.078.133
24 34.321 1.395.656 55.187 2.494.655 20.866 1.098.999
25 29.058 1.424.714 78.428 2.573.083 49.370 1.148.369
26 59.184 1.483.898 93.799 2.666.882 34.615 1.182.984
27 75.481 1.559.379 52.250 2.719.132 -23.231 1.159.753
28 55.823 1.615.202 96.879 2.816.011 41.056 1.200.809
29 45.596 1.660.798 113.197 2.929.208 67.601 1.268.410
30 42.689 1.703.487 125.231 3.054.439 82.542 1.350.952
31 36.613 1.740.100 86.605 3.141.044 49.992 1.400.944
32 46.338 1.786.438 173.338 3.314.382 127.000 1.527.944
33 46.339 1.832.777 148.699 3.463.081 102.360 1.630.304
34 30.072 1.862.849 70.129 3.533.210 40.057 1.670.361
35 90.553 1.953.402
36 77.392 2.030.794
37 51.619 2.082.413
38 239.740 2.322.153
39 196.489 2.518.642
40 89.137 2.607.779
41 56.680 2.664.459
42 54.067 2.718.526
43 69.438 2.787.964
44 119.397 2.907.361
45 88.772 2.996.133
46 180.136 3.176.269
47 179.992 3.356.261
48 186.763 3.543.024
49 188.501 3.731.525
50 236.625 3.968.150
51 291.485 4.259.614
52 234.268 4.493.885


Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

Famitsu 2020 Switch Top 25: 

TOTAL: 11.660.788

Nintendo - 9.394.875

Pokemon Co. - 982.440

Other - 1.283.473

Famitsu 2020 PS4 Top 25

  1. Final Fantasy VII Remake (Square) - 932.821
  2. Ghost of Tsushima (Sony) - 362.354
  3. Resident Evil 3 (Capcom) - 258.676 
  4. Yakuza 7: Like a Dragon (Sega) - 243.769
  5. The Last of Us Part II (Sony) - 222.943
  6. eBaseball Powerful Pro Baseball 2020 (Konami) - 170.534
  7. Mobile Suit Gundam: Extreme Vs. MaxiBoost On (Bandai) - 155.623
  8. Persona 5 Scramble: The Phantom Strikers (Atlus) - 149.898
  9. Dragon Ball Z: Kakarot (Bandai) - 149.654
  10. Trials of Mana (Square) - 133.593
  11. One Piece: Pirate Warriors 4 (Bandai) - 131.315
  12. Granblue Fantasy Versus (Cygames) - 111.094
  13. Sword Art Online: Alicization Lycoris (Bandai) - 85.010 
  14. Grand Theft Auto V: Premium Online Edition (Take-Two) - 54.860
  15. Romance of the Three Kingdoms 14 (Koei) - 33.644
  16. Remnant: From the Ashes (DMM Games) -  24.150
  17. Katanakami (Spike Chunsoft) - 17.599 
  18. Fairy Tail (Koei) - 15.344
  19. Predator: Hunting Grounds (Sony) - 13.019
  20. The Legend of Heroes: Trails of Azure - Kai (Nihon Falcom) - 12.047
  21. Winning Post 9 2020 (Koei) - 10.528
  22. Street Fighter V: Champion Edition (Capcom) - 8.705
  23. Kandagawa Jet Girls (Marvelous) - 7.749
  24. Bayonetta & Vanquish (Sega) - 7.397
  25. Mega Man Zero/ZX Legacy (Capcom) - 7.235

TOTAL: 3.319.561

  • Bandai - 4
  • Capcom, Sony, Koei - 3
  • Square & Sega - 2
  • Konami, Atlus, Cygames, Take Two, Marvelous, DMM Games, Nihon Falcom, Spike Chunsoft - 1

Exclusive to the PS4: 18

Exclusive 3rd Party games on PS4 Top 25: 15

Exclusive 3rd Party games on Switch Top 25: 4

With low initial install base and anemic sales this year on the PS4, it's looking increasingly likely that we will see the Playstation Ecosystem sell below 7M units of physical software. This is actually the first year I expect 3rd Parties to sell more on the Switch compared to the Playstation 4 & 5. So far there is no notable exclusive coming on the PS5 for the fall that could move a large number of sales and push the system. 

I find it hard to point to a game launching the rest of the year on the Playstation 4 and 5 that could move over 400K units. 

Despite this fact, we will notice that a large number of games haven't been ported to the Switch and can only be bought on the PS4. The majority of these outsides of Final Fantasy, Yakuza, Resident Evil are games that are selling between 10K to 200K units. These are AA Japanese 3rd Party games and next year I don't foresee a lot of these types of titles being exclusive to the PS4/PS5. 

These were the numbers for last year according to Media Create, these include all titles launched not just Top 25 titles:

Switch 2019:
Nintendo - 7.585.954
Pokemon Co. - 3.115.023
Other - 5.939.643
All publishers - 16.646.620

PS4 2019:
Sony Interactive Entertainment - 1.284.234
Other - 7.951.099
All publishers - 9.235.333

As we can see PS4/PS5 software sales are trending to drop and end up between 6-7M while if Monster Hunter Switch ends up dropping we might see 3rd Party sales on the Switch easily surpass 8M. The lowest selling title on the Top 25 currently on the Switch has over 78K sales, while on the PS4 we start at about 10K. The writing is on the wall for the PS5, PS4 was lucky to launch in a time where Nintendo basically faced a huge decline going from DS->3DS and Wii->Wii U

Right now Playstation ecosystem is competing with a dominant force and it cannot count on a large number of Japanese 3rd Party exclusive titles to differentiate itself from the Switch. It will continue to get the AAA exclusivity for the likes of Resident Evil, Final Fantasy, Kingdom Hearts, Yakuza, Persona, Nier and new IPs aiming for AAA but that strategy will also need to be revisited by Square, Capcom, Atlus and Sega at some point. There is simply no way to allow your biggest franchises to fade into obscurity at their home nation, so by 2023 I expect at least 2/3 of those big franchises to make their way to the Switch.

Next year we will likely see something like 80-20 Software sales for 3rd Parties on the Switch simply by the virtue the console will be over 20M units sold by the end of 2021. Also if the rumored revision comes out we might be looking at a much lower hardware drop from 2020 for the Switch, Breath of the Wild 2, Switch Pro, price cuts for Lite and OG, if those all hit the end of FY it all depends on fall line-up if the Switch can actually see over >12M hardware sales for the two year period. We are heading towards 6.5 to 7.5 million for this year, I don't see the Switch dropping below 6M in 2021.

In the meantime, PS4 had sold only 2.2M by the end of 2015 and 4M by the end of 2016. By the end of 2021, the PS5 will most likely be below 2M making it a very hard sell for any AA Japanese games Sony isn't paying for. The size and price are a difficult barrier and competition with the Switch will be brutal for the Playstation in Japan, but more worrying for Sony is the numbers that recently came out of Taiwan and South Korea if this is playing out across Asia.. well Europe and North America will be the only potential large video game markets where Sony would be competitive. 

This will have long term ramifications, at the end of the day, the main issue Sony had was exiting the portable space allowing Nintendo to consolidate that market and attract a lot of smaller studios both in Japan and outside of Japan. These small studios & indies that basically made up a large amount of the support during the first few years on the Switch ensured that even though large Japanese 3rd Parties never took the device seriously it had enough 3rd party support. As I've said I feel that Human Fall Flat has probably sold more copies in Japan(digitally) than the vast majority of Japanese 3rd Party titles.

I can understand Sony and other big companies for not wanting to compete against Mobile while also supporting AAA consoles, but it might be problematic with AAA games costing so much these days that one commercial failure can pretty much cripple a very large company. Simply put having both AA and AAA allows you to at least stay afloat in such a scenario. For example, Level 5 is missing entirely from the Top 25 on Nintendo and Playstation but via eShop sales, they might be able to cover their bills. Their AAA efforts failed and so did their mobile efforts if they didn't have the money they had saved up from their AA efforts(in which I include Yo-Kai 3DS games, Snack World, etc) and didn't have some titles to sell digitally right now they would probably go bankrupt. 

Last edited by noshten - on 29 August 2020

How y’all feeling about another YoY for japan? 2021>2020 anyone?



tbone51 said:
How y’all feeling about another YoY for japan? 2021>2020 anyone?

It really depends on the line-up and what we see the rest of the year.

If 2020 is >7M for example, I don't think 2021 will be able to surpass it.

If it ends up disappointing us with 6M results than 2021 will probably be up. 

It's all about supply for the rest of the year, we've seen that the Switch is selling 100K per week when there is enough supply. I'd imagine we would be looking at some huge figures in December if the supply is there. Luckily Nintendo diversified their hardware and Lite is much easier to produce. 



tbone51 said:
How y’all feeling about another YoY for japan? 2021>2020 anyone?

Even with monster hunter 2021 isnt surpassing 2020