| Kai_Mao said: Never thought I’d see the day that the PS4 would be outsold by the 3DS in 2020. Will the PS4 reach 10 million LTD in Japan at this point? Even with all the remaining big games releasing at this point, the sales just seemed to decline. Lack of stock doesn’t help. |
I said in February that it would never hit 10m, now I am unsure about 9.5m...
Top 30
NSW 26 (10 of which are third party)
PS4 4 (3 of which are third party)
This week 10/13 = 77% of third party games were on the Switch. For the past 3 months Switch has consistently had 60-80% of third party games in the top 30 and this week is no different. Also, it is interesting to look at the progression of eBaseball 2020 on both platforms. First week sales were almost the same, but the Switch version clearly has much better legs.
Week 28 (launch)
01./00. [NSW] eBaseball Powerful Pro Baseball 2020 (Konami) {2020.07.09} (¥6.980) - 94.876 / NEW <60-80%>
02./00. [PS4] eBaseball Powerful Pro Baseball 2020 (Konami) {2020.07.09} (¥7.980) - 91.547 / NEW <60-80%>
Week 34 (this week)
6. [NSW] eBaseball Powerful Pro Yakyuu 2020 (Konami, 07/09/20) – 9,522 (200,447)
13. [PS4] eBaseball Powerful Pro Yakyuu 2020 (Konami, 07/09/20) – 5,366 (170,534)
curl-6 bet me that PS5 + X|S sales would reach 56m before year end 2023 and he was right.
My Bet With curl-6
My Threads:
Master Thread, Game of the Year/Decade
Switch Will Be #1 All Time
Zelda Will Outsell Mario (Achieved)
How Much Will MH Rise sell?
My Bet With Metallox
| Marth said: Nintendo eShop Sales: August 20th to August 26th 2020 01./New. – Final Fantasy Crystal Chronicles Remastered Edition (Square-Enix) [27.8.2020] 01./02. – Inazuma Eleven 1 – 2 – 3!! Endo Mamoru Densetsu (Level-5) [29.5.2013] (on sale for 500 Yen, instead of 6 076 Yen, until September 1st) |
It's interesting that Animal Crossing is only #3 on the eShop. Seems like most of it's sales are physical. I think what happens in Japan is that most people buying Animal Crossing are new customers who buy a Switch at the same time.
curl-6 bet me that PS5 + X|S sales would reach 56m before year end 2023 and he was right.
My Bet With curl-6
My Threads:
Master Thread, Game of the Year/Decade
Switch Will Be #1 All Time
Zelda Will Outsell Mario (Achieved)
How Much Will MH Rise sell?
My Bet With Metallox
TOP 25 Switch Famitsu 2020:
*could have missed some titles
TOTAL: 11.660.788
2019 TOTAL TOP 50: 13.949.236
Currently just the Top 25 Switch games this year have sold over 11.66M Software, last year the Top 50 had 13.94M sales. Knowing how Ring Fit and Animal Crossing are about to sell during the holidays and having some major 3rd Party games launching, I think this year there is a very good chance for the Top 50 to surpass 20M units.
TOP 10 3rd Party Games 2020:
TOTAL: 1.349.126
So far this year the biggest 3rd Party titles have been eBaseball, followed by One Piece, Trial of Mana, Hatsune Miku, and Persona 5 Scramble. Evergreen games are still doing decent numbers and DQXIS longevity has been surprising many who didn't expect a long tail for a JRPG. Currently, Bandai is the top publisher followed by Microsoft, Sega, Konami and Square.
Now things are finally starting to pick up from a 3rd party perspective. The total for 3rd Parties this year could very well surpass 4M if Bravely and Rune Factory 5 launch in 2020. Momotaro Dentetsu is set to be the biggest Japanese 3rd Party game and should easily surpass DQXIS sales in 2020 and will fight with Minecraft for the annual crown.
Close to 90% of physical software sales are Nintendo titles. This might change due to no big fall title revealed and Konami, Marvelous, Square, Bandai, Atlus all have games that should easily make the Top 50 Switch titles for 2020. As mentioned before Sega only has Puyo in the fall, Capcom doesn't have anything, Koei will probably enter the chart with Atelier and we still don't know what to expect from Derby Stallion by Land Ho! but as I've said before this game is difficult to predict.
The Japanese market has reached a level of monopoly not seen since the NES.
| curl-6 said: The Japanese market has reached a level of monopoly not seen since the NES. |
I'd actually say its closer to late super famicom era. sega was doing jack squat in japan and the PC engine only marginally better
I see there are still a lot of suckers spending hard earned money on Mario Party.
Top 5 Monster Hunter Games Japan:
Two insiders confirming Monster Hunter Switch, it would be kind of funny if by the end of the year Capcom is the top 3rd party publisher because of a single game but it could very well happen. Simply put the franchise remains very popular in Japan and the Switch is killing it.. so 4M is to me the minimum a hypothetical Monster Hunter on Switch would do.
Most Monster Hunter games launch in the fall but there have been some that launched early in the year such as Monster Hunter World & Monster Hunter Freedom Unite, if it ends up launching this year, that I can understand Nintendo not really needing a big holiday game.
2017 3rd Party Support(2H) with over 50K Sales LTD
2018 3rd Party Support(2H) with over 50K Sales LTD
2019 3rd Party Support(2H) with over 50K Sales LTD
Even though they would only get 30% of profits from 3rd Parties there would be actual support this fall for the Switch. We already have eBaseball, which has surpassed 200K. Below are the tiers I would put the games revealed so far and a hypothetical Monster Hunter.
I know earlier I said 3rd parties in the Top 50 could approach 5M if Bravely Default 2 and Rune Factory 5 release but if Monster Hunter Switch turns out to be true we might be looking at around 7M physical sales for 3rd parties. Momotaro is still the top of Amazon, Taiko should do pretty well this holiday, there is a bunch of 3rd Party games that should do 100-200K in the fall in fact if there was supply Final Fantasy Crystal Chronicles a game I wasn't expecting too much of could have ended up there. Atelier 2 & SMT III namely being games with high potential.
Also gotta revise my view on Captain Tsubasa, seems this game will not have great WOM and it doesn't seem it will do too hot at this price. I still think it has potential if they drop the price to Taiko/Fishing Spirits level. Right now it's priced too high for it to really have that much success. Still, there is plenty of time until the holidays for Bandai to make the necessary changes. Wondering if there is going to be any Western 3rd Party reveals that could do well on the Switch this fall, if a Direct is coming up that's the final time we would know about this.
Last edited by noshten - on 29 August 2020
Famitsu 2020 Switch Top 25:
TOTAL: 11.660.788
Nintendo - 9.394.875
Pokemon Co. - 982.440
Other - 1.283.473
Famitsu 2020 PS4 Top 25
TOTAL: 3.319.561
Exclusive to the PS4: 18
Exclusive 3rd Party games on PS4 Top 25: 15
Exclusive 3rd Party games on Switch Top 25: 4
With low initial install base and anemic sales this year on the PS4, it's looking increasingly likely that we will see the Playstation Ecosystem sell below 7M units of physical software. This is actually the first year I expect 3rd Parties to sell more on the Switch compared to the Playstation 4 & 5. So far there is no notable exclusive coming on the PS5 for the fall that could move a large number of sales and push the system.
I find it hard to point to a game launching the rest of the year on the Playstation 4 and 5 that could move over 400K units.
Despite this fact, we will notice that a large number of games haven't been ported to the Switch and can only be bought on the PS4. The majority of these outsides of Final Fantasy, Yakuza, Resident Evil are games that are selling between 10K to 200K units. These are AA Japanese 3rd Party games and next year I don't foresee a lot of these types of titles being exclusive to the PS4/PS5.
These were the numbers for last year according to Media Create, these include all titles launched not just Top 25 titles:
Switch 2019:
Nintendo - 7.585.954
Pokemon Co. - 3.115.023
Other - 5.939.643
All publishers - 16.646.620
PS4 2019:
Sony Interactive Entertainment - 1.284.234
Other - 7.951.099
All publishers - 9.235.333
As we can see PS4/PS5 software sales are trending to drop and end up between 6-7M while if Monster Hunter Switch ends up dropping we might see 3rd Party sales on the Switch easily surpass 8M. The lowest selling title on the Top 25 currently on the Switch has over 78K sales, while on the PS4 we start at about 10K. The writing is on the wall for the PS5, PS4 was lucky to launch in a time where Nintendo basically faced a huge decline going from DS->3DS and Wii->Wii U.
Right now Playstation ecosystem is competing with a dominant force and it cannot count on a large number of Japanese 3rd Party exclusive titles to differentiate itself from the Switch. It will continue to get the AAA exclusivity for the likes of Resident Evil, Final Fantasy, Kingdom Hearts, Yakuza, Persona, Nier and new IPs aiming for AAA but that strategy will also need to be revisited by Square, Capcom, Atlus and Sega at some point. There is simply no way to allow your biggest franchises to fade into obscurity at their home nation, so by 2023 I expect at least 2/3 of those big franchises to make their way to the Switch.
Next year we will likely see something like 80-20 Software sales for 3rd Parties on the Switch simply by the virtue the console will be over 20M units sold by the end of 2021. Also if the rumored revision comes out we might be looking at a much lower hardware drop from 2020 for the Switch, Breath of the Wild 2, Switch Pro, price cuts for Lite and OG, if those all hit the end of FY it all depends on fall line-up if the Switch can actually see over >12M hardware sales for the two year period. We are heading towards 6.5 to 7.5 million for this year, I don't see the Switch dropping below 6M in 2021.
In the meantime, PS4 had sold only 2.2M by the end of 2015 and 4M by the end of 2016. By the end of 2021, the PS5 will most likely be below 2M making it a very hard sell for any AA Japanese games Sony isn't paying for. The size and price are a difficult barrier and competition with the Switch will be brutal for the Playstation in Japan, but more worrying for Sony is the numbers that recently came out of Taiwan and South Korea if this is playing out across Asia.. well Europe and North America will be the only potential large video game markets where Sony would be competitive.
This will have long term ramifications, at the end of the day, the main issue Sony had was exiting the portable space allowing Nintendo to consolidate that market and attract a lot of smaller studios both in Japan and outside of Japan. These small studios & indies that basically made up a large amount of the support during the first few years on the Switch ensured that even though large Japanese 3rd Parties never took the device seriously it had enough 3rd party support. As I've said I feel that Human Fall Flat has probably sold more copies in Japan(digitally) than the vast majority of Japanese 3rd Party titles.
I can understand Sony and other big companies for not wanting to compete against Mobile while also supporting AAA consoles, but it might be problematic with AAA games costing so much these days that one commercial failure can pretty much cripple a very large company. Simply put having both AA and AAA allows you to at least stay afloat in such a scenario. For example, Level 5 is missing entirely from the Top 25 on Nintendo and Playstation but via eShop sales, they might be able to cover their bills. Their AAA efforts failed and so did their mobile efforts if they didn't have the money they had saved up from their AA efforts(in which I include Yo-Kai 3DS games, Snack World, etc) and didn't have some titles to sell digitally right now they would probably go bankrupt.
Last edited by noshten - on 29 August 2020
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