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Forums - Sales Discussion - Let's Predict the Floor for Metroid Prime 4

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What is the LOWEST number of units MP4 will sell?

1 million units 12 24.00%
2 million units 15 30.00%
3 million units 11 22.00%
4 million units 4 8.00%
5 million units 1 2.00%
6 million units 1 2.00%
7 million units 1 2.00%
8 million units 1 2.00%
9 million units 0 0%
10+ million units 4 8.00%

Assuming it will be a straight-forward continuation of Metroid Prime 1-3, I'd say 2m is the absolute lowest. We'd get a game that is a combination of excellence and somewhat dated design (plenty of corridors to cover up loading times between the bigger rooms). The Metroid fanbase will be on board with this after roughly 15 years of waiting for a game that is worthy of the Metroid name. (People have to remember that the development of Metroid Prime 4 was rebooted less than two years ago, so a fall 2021 release was basically the most optimistic and still realistic launch timeframe.)

If Retro Studios changes things up, such as pursuing a more open design with bigger seamless areas, then I'd really need to see the game first because assuming a Breath of the Wild-like revelation would be a giant leap of faith in a studio that has failed to live up to its own fame lately (last game released in 2014, so their follow-up project didn't turn out well and wasn't deemed good enough to show off, let alone release).

Regardless, Metroid has inherent sales limitations because it cuts out a female audience and does not appeal to the lowest male denominator. While it wasn't asked by the OP, I'd define the ceiling at 5m, no matter the direction of the game.

Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

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The floor will be a brownish black.

I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.

Jumpin said:
The floor will be a brownish black.

We can only hope.  This certainly won't be My Little Metroid Prime or Metroid Prime Crossing, although both of those would be really cool, don't get me wrong.

The lowest? Maybe 1,5 mil if it somehow flops so bad that even the fans will denounce it.
Very unlikely though. More realistically, I actually expect that it will outsell the original trilogy combined. Which is ofc sadly only a little over 5 mil, but would be a huge step in the right direction for the series.

Major Switch Titles Launch Aligned

2021 predictions:

  • Switch - 27m
  • PS5 - 15.5m
  • Xbox Series - 10m

I think the floor is 3 million.
A little off topic but I think Prime 3 would have gone on to outsell Prime 1 and gone on to sell 3+ million if Nintendo didn't release the Prime Trilogy in 2009, effectively cutting its legs. Not that that's a bad thing. Just thought I'd get it out there.

Depending on when the game releases relative to the Switch's life cycle and how Nintendo manages it's release, I think its sales could range from 3 million to as high as 6 million.

Last edited by PAOerfulone - on 14 August 2020

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Ok...someone picked the very high 10 million+ units as the floor for this title. Show yourself and be counted. That is a hefty wager and I'm sure if you believe in it that you should get that prediction out there now. Would be a great post to throw in your signature once it reaches that lofty goal.

Going by past Metroid games I would normally say 2.5 million, but given that Switch games seem to sell like hotcakes I'll go with 7 million.

I'm worried that the development-hell it went through will give it a bad rep and people will skip it if its not a masterpiece. I can't recall a game that went through that and lived up to the expectations after release. Metroid is also somewhat niche (although I can't see why) so all things considered... Maybe 1 million?

0. Because it's never coming out

Bite my shiny metal cockpit!

I am going to say 3 mil. I have a feeling it will draw quite a few new to the IP to give it a shot.

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