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Forums - Nintendo - Nintendo quarterly sales update (Switch 61.44m, Animal Crossing 22.4m)

sethnintendo on 06 August 2020

I almost feel sorry for the guy that put a 400 million short against Nintendo two years ago. They had a chance to make money if he cashed out a year or two when it was below the price he shorted on but now lol... If they held on they are completely fucked for awhile. Looks like they can't cash out for another few years unless they want massive losses.

https://variety.com/2018/gaming/news/nintendo-gabriel-plotkin-short-1202890198/



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Slownenberg on 06 August 2020
trunkswd said:
RolStoppable said:

So much pessimism. Switch keeps tracking ahead of the PS4 and extending its lead over it, but at the same time there's the belief that the drop off a cliff is inevitable, so Switch will end up behind the PS4 ultimately.

When momentum declines, console manufacturers usually issue price cuts and launch revisions to keep sales up. But for some reason people seem to think that either Nintendo will not act or that none of those measures will help, so a sharp decline is expected.

People are remembering the huge cliff of the Wii and fans are worried the same will happen with the Switch. 

Which makes no sense since the Wii and Switch are in very different situations.



Slownenberg on 06 August 2020
javi741 said:

After seeing these numbers, I've realized that there is 0% chance that the Switch falls short of 100 Million Sold, it's inevitable at this point it's going to sell 100M+ especially with AC:NH becoming viral and a global phenomenon with many non-gamers purchasing a Switch just to play that game, along with how innovative and awesome the Switch's hybrid concept is with Nintendo's other evergreen titles that are selling like crazy to this day like Smash, Mario Kart, Zelda, ECT.. Plus we likely still got 2 more mainline pokemon games down the pipeline and more.

My prediction for the Switch was 113M sold, but now I see the Switch selling 120-130M when all said and done, maybe outselling the PS4, this system since its launched has just blown away every expectation and shut up all the potential naysayers, I believe the Switch's final sales total will blow us all away.

Chance of OutSelling Each System:

NES 61.91M: 100%

3DS: 76M: 100%

PSP: 81M: 100%

Gameboy Advance: 82.5M: 100%

Xbox 360: 85M: 100%

PS3: 87M: 100%

Wii: 101.63M: 95%

PS1 102.5M: 93%

PS4: 112.3M+: 40%

Gameboy: 118.69M: 50%

DS: 154.02M: 10%

PS2: 157M: 8%

Are you really just now realizing there is no way Switch sells under 100 million? That's been decided for quite some time now. And you really have passing the Wii and PS1 not at 100%??

Here are better percentages:

Wii: 101.63M: 100%

PS1 102.5M: 100%

PS4: 112.3M+: 50%

Gameboy: 118.69M: 90%

DS: 154.02M: 2%

PS2: 157M: 1%



javi741 on 06 August 2020
Slownenberg said:
javi741 said:

After seeing these numbers, I've realized that there is 0% chance that the Switch falls short of 100 Million Sold, it's inevitable at this point it's going to sell 100M+ especially with AC:NH becoming viral and a global phenomenon with many non-gamers purchasing a Switch just to play that game, along with how innovative and awesome the Switch's hybrid concept is with Nintendo's other evergreen titles that are selling like crazy to this day like Smash, Mario Kart, Zelda, ECT.. Plus we likely still got 2 more mainline pokemon games down the pipeline and more.

My prediction for the Switch was 113M sold, but now I see the Switch selling 120-130M when all said and done, maybe outselling the PS4, this system since its launched has just blown away every expectation and shut up all the potential naysayers, I believe the Switch's final sales total will blow us all away.

Chance of OutSelling Each System:

NES 61.91M: 100%

3DS: 76M: 100%

PSP: 81M: 100%

Gameboy Advance: 82.5M: 100%

Xbox 360: 85M: 100%

PS3: 87M: 100%

Wii: 101.63M: 95%

PS1 102.5M: 93%

PS4: 112.3M+: 40%

Gameboy: 118.69M: 50%

DS: 154.02M: 10%

PS2: 157M: 8%

Are you really just now realizing there is no way Switch sells under 100 million? That's been decided for quite some time now. And you really have passing the Wii and PS1 not at 100%??

Here are better percentages:

Wii: 101.63M: 100%

PS1 102.5M: 100%

PS4: 112.3M+: 50%

Gameboy: 118.69M: 90%

DS: 154.02M: 2%

PS2: 157M: 1%

I've always thought the Switch would outsell 100M, I was always like 95% sure it would. The 5% of doubt I always had that kept me from saying it's guaranteed is knowing how much the Wii fell off a cliff.

I knew the Switch likely wouldn't fall off a cliff like the Wii did because the Switch's sales are still growing YoY in it's 4th year compared to the Wii which started declining during its 3rd year meaning the Switch would have a later peak thus a longer lifespan, plus the Switch would get more software support than the Wii with Nintendo combining software teams on one system, plus the tons of new iterations the Switch would likely get. However, despite all this, I could never really completely discount that 5% possibility that it does fall off the cliff. However, after this quarter I completely disregarded that possibility.  



Slownenberg on 06 August 2020
javi741 said:
Slownenberg said:

Are you really just now realizing there is no way Switch sells under 100 million? That's been decided for quite some time now. And you really have passing the Wii and PS1 not at 100%??

Here are better percentages:

Wii: 101.63M: 100%

PS1 102.5M: 100%

PS4: 112.3M+: 50%

Gameboy: 118.69M: 90%

DS: 154.02M: 2%

PS2: 157M: 1%

I've always thought the Switch would outsell 100M, I was always like 95% sure it would. The 5% of doubt I always had that kept me from saying it's guaranteed is knowing how much the Wii fell off a cliff.

I knew the Switch likely wouldn't fall off a cliff like the Wii did because the Switch's sales are still growing YoY in it's 4th year compared to the Wii which started declining during its 3rd year meaning the Switch would have a later peak thus a longer lifespan, plus the Switch would get more software support than the Wii with Nintendo combining software teams on one system, plus the tons of new iterations the Switch would likely get. However, despite all this, I could never really completely discount that 5% possibility that it does fall off the cliff. However, after this quarter I completely disregarded that possibility.  

I just don't get the 95% and 93% on Wii and PS1 haha. Do you really think it is guaranteed to break 100 million but not guaranteed to hit 101 or 102 million? It'll probably be passing Wii and PS1 roughly around summer of 2022, which is likely a year and a half or more before a successor comes out.



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Roma on 06 August 2020

Zelda having more sales than Pokemon is the shocker here! Even outselling Mario! :O hori sheit!



    R.I.P Mr Iwata :'(

JWeinCom on 06 August 2020

ANyone know when the investor q&A is? I'm hoping someone will ask when the hell they'll announce new games. Of course they may just not care with all the money Ninty is making.



Nautilus on 06 August 2020
JWeinCom said:
ANyone know when the investor q&A is? I'm hoping someone will ask when the hell they'll announce new games. Of course they may just not care with all the money Ninty is making.

Investors won't be able to ask questions this quarter.Though I am expecting a briefing of some sort from Nintendo until tomorrow.



My (locked) thread about how difficulty should be a decision for the developers, not the gamers.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=241866&page=1

PortisheadBiscuit on 06 August 2020

AC blew past 20m like it's nothing, wow.



The_Liquid_Laser on 06 August 2020
trunkswd said:
RolStoppable said:

So much pessimism. Switch keeps tracking ahead of the PS4 and extending its lead over it, but at the same time there's the belief that the drop off a cliff is inevitable, so Switch will end up behind the PS4 ultimately.

When momentum declines, console manufacturers usually issue price cuts and launch revisions to keep sales up. But for some reason people seem to think that either Nintendo will not act or that none of those measures will help, so a sharp decline is expected.

People are remembering the huge cliff of the Wii and fans are worried the same will happen with the Switch. 

Wii sold 25.95m during it's peak fiscal year.  After that it sold another 51.25m.  This is Switch's peak fiscal year and 25.95m is a pretty decent estimate.  If Switch sells this and has the same decline as the Wii, then lifetime sales end up at 132.98m.  That is what a "crash and burn" scenario looks like for the Switch.  People are thinking crash and burn is like 100m-110m.  No, crash and burn is 133m.  Wii had weak first party games and weak third party games (other than Just Dance) after 2009.  And if Switch fizzles out, then yeah it will sell 133m.  That is a pessimistic number that is feasible.

On the other hand, the likelyhood of Switch going to a crash and burn scenario is small.  Wii had no Pokemon games, which Switch will likely get 2 more (a port and a new one).  BotW2 is going to be far more popular than Skyward Sword, and Nintendo is going to keep a steady flow of games on the Switch until it's ready to replace it.  Western Devs are going to keep porting PS4 games over, because that is easy money.  Japanese devs are just getting started putting brand new 3rd party games on Switch.  It is far more likely that Switch will not crash and burn.

It is far more likely that Switch will sell a lot more than that 133m crash and burn scenario.



curl-6 bet me that PS5 + X|S sales would reach 56m before year end 2023 and he was right.
My Bet With curl-6

My Threads:
Master Thread, Game of the Year/Decade
Switch Will Be #1 All Time
Zelda Will Outsell Mario (Achieved)
How Much Will MH Rise sell?
My Bet With Metallox