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javi741 on 06 August 2020
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Slownenberg said:
javi741 said:

After seeing these numbers, I've realized that there is 0% chance that the Switch falls short of 100 Million Sold, it's inevitable at this point it's going to sell 100M+ especially with AC:NH becoming viral and a global phenomenon with many non-gamers purchasing a Switch just to play that game, along with how innovative and awesome the Switch's hybrid concept is with Nintendo's other evergreen titles that are selling like crazy to this day like Smash, Mario Kart, Zelda, ECT.. Plus we likely still got 2 more mainline pokemon games down the pipeline and more.

My prediction for the Switch was 113M sold, but now I see the Switch selling 120-130M when all said and done, maybe outselling the PS4, this system since its launched has just blown away every expectation and shut up all the potential naysayers, I believe the Switch's final sales total will blow us all away.

Chance of OutSelling Each System:

NES 61.91M: 100%

3DS: 76M: 100%

PSP: 81M: 100%

Gameboy Advance: 82.5M: 100%

Xbox 360: 85M: 100%

PS3: 87M: 100%

Wii: 101.63M: 95%

PS1 102.5M: 93%

PS4: 112.3M+: 40%

Gameboy: 118.69M: 50%

DS: 154.02M: 10%

PS2: 157M: 8%

Are you really just now realizing there is no way Switch sells under 100 million? That's been decided for quite some time now. And you really have passing the Wii and PS1 not at 100%??

Here are better percentages:

Wii: 101.63M: 100%

PS1 102.5M: 100%

PS4: 112.3M+: 50%

Gameboy: 118.69M: 90%

DS: 154.02M: 2%

PS2: 157M: 1%

I've always thought the Switch would outsell 100M, I was always like 95% sure it would. The 5% of doubt I always had that kept me from saying it's guaranteed is knowing how much the Wii fell off a cliff.

I knew the Switch likely wouldn't fall off a cliff like the Wii did because the Switch's sales are still growing YoY in it's 4th year compared to the Wii which started declining during its 3rd year meaning the Switch would have a later peak thus a longer lifespan, plus the Switch would get more software support than the Wii with Nintendo combining software teams on one system, plus the tons of new iterations the Switch would likely get. However, despite all this, I could never really completely discount that 5% possibility that it does fall off the cliff. However, after this quarter I completely disregarded that possibility.