Nintendo quarterly sales update (Switch 61.44m, Animal Crossing 22.4m)

[The_Liquid_Laser]

trunkswd said:

RolStoppable said:

So much pessimism. Switch keeps tracking ahead of the PS4 and extending its lead over it, but at the same time there's the belief that the drop off a cliff is inevitable, so Switch will end up behind the PS4 ultimately.

When momentum declines, console manufacturers usually issue price cuts and launch revisions to keep sales up. But for some reason people seem to think that either Nintendo will not act or that none of those measures will help, so a sharp decline is expected.

People are remembering the huge cliff of the Wii and fans are worried the same will happen with the Switch. 

Wii sold 25.95m during it's peak fiscal year.  After that it sold another 51.25m.  This is Switch's peak fiscal year and 25.95m is a pretty decent estimate.  If Switch sells this and has the same decline as the Wii, then lifetime sales end up at 132.98m.  That is what a "crash and burn" scenario looks like for the Switch.  People are thinking crash and burn is like 100m-110m.  No, crash and burn is 133m.  Wii had weak first party games and weak third party games (other than Just Dance) after 2009.  And if Switch fizzles out, then yeah it will sell 133m.  That is a pessimistic number that is feasible.

On the other hand, the likelyhood of Switch going to a crash and burn scenario is small.  Wii had no Pokemon games, which Switch will likely get 2 more (a port and a new one).  BotW2 is going to be far more popular than Skyward Sword, and Nintendo is going to keep a steady flow of games on the Switch until it's ready to replace it.  Western Devs are going to keep porting PS4 games over, because that is easy money.  Japanese devs are just getting started putting brand new 3rd party games on Switch.  It is far more likely that Switch will not crash and burn.

It is far more likely that Switch will sell a lot more than that 133m crash and burn scenario.