I don't see them releasing MK9 on Switch just cause they don't have to. Switch is rolling and MK8D is as well, releasing a new MK would just kill off the hype they could use for a new one during the first 2 years of the next console's lifecycle. Let them make an F-zero game instead.

I think it should cross 31 millions this year alone, so i expect it to end up towards the end of the 30s or maybe 40-41 millions if the Switch has a slow decline.

Yeah exactly. MK9 should be a big launch title for Switch 2, MK9 on Switch is just a "oh another Mario Kart?? why?" Unless they change up the formula and experiment with a new style of Mario Kart there is no reason Switch needs a second Mario Kart that is just gonna compete with the other Mario Kart and steal sales from it. Those resources could better be spent on other franchises.

I wanna see Nintendo support their best sellers with DLC. I would pay for more Mario Kart 8 maps and characters, and more Odyssey content.

What I think you're missing here, is that yes, releasing MK9 on Switch may keep MK8D sales to ~35mil, when it could potentially do 40-45mil without being replaced, which is a possible loss of ~10mil sales there... But, with how long they would've had since MK8 first released, having only done two DLC packs and a marginally improved re-release since, and with being later in the Switch life cycle while actually being developed for Switch from the ground up, it could be a far improved game with sales potential of 40mil+ itself.

So you take the ~35mil from MK8D, add in 40mil+ potentially from MK9 and even with the ~10mil loss you're still gaining 30mil sales. If you think MK9 could realistically only do 30mil+ this late in the system's life, that's still a 20mil gain. All that while giving a huge boost to the second half of Switch. Because while it already has a Mario Kart, this would be a new and far improved Mario Kart specifically made for the Switch, letting people know it's not going anywhere anytime soon. What other franchise could they devote those resources to for that kind of assured gain right now?

After all that, you can still begin cooking the next Mario Kart for Switch 2 and have it ready by year two or three. If they want to experiment with other franchises, like an F-Zero reboot, they can do it as a year one release for their next system, while also reassuring fans more Mario Kart and the like are on the way. This helps differentiate the new system while prolonging the Switch success.

tl;dr Nintendo shouldn't be prematurely holding back titles for a Switch 2 launch, when the Switch is only growing in worldwide interest and they can easily prolong it's success with a new and improved Mario Kart for the system, allowing them more time to plan and develop for their next system as well.

They are cooking this game for more than 6 years. Obviously will be a huge improvement over MK8D.

Releasing MK9 this or next year will make switch rolling for a long period, which will give them plenty time for a next Mario kart release for the next system within its first year.

So for all these pointless concerns, especially the one that a flagship title like MK8D would lose its legs. Like if the mainstream audience would lose the opportunity to have 2 brand new Mario karts in the same system. Like... For real?

This line of thinking doesn't make sense from a business perspective considering Mario Kart is easily their biggest franchuse now and would provide them with the most profit for said resources.

If that were the case then why doesn't Nintendo release two or three or four mario karts on every system??!

Fact is that if a second Mario Kart came to the Switch it would sell far less than MK8D, while simultaneously cutting off MK8D's legs. Unless they are gonna do something radically different with the franchise there is no reason to have Mario Kart twice on the same system. It is bad business. There's a reason why they only have one Mario Kart on each system. Each Mario Kart is pretty much the same experience, with tech upgrades each generation allowing them to make improvements. Same reason why they only put out one Smash on each system. There would be no tech upgrades for a MK9 released on Switch because Switch is comparable to Wii U in strength - there certainly is not a significant enough difference to have a major impact on the franchise. Having two Mario Karts on Switch is having two incredibly similar experiences on the same system, with the latter one cutting off the sales of the former one. It makes much more business sense to direct that development time and effort to other franchises that gamers are still waiting for on the Switch.

Consumers aren't crying out for a second Mario Kart on the same system. We already have the MK experience on Switch. Nintendo has to do nothing at all to sell another 15+ million Mario Karts on Switch. No reason to rush out a second MK on the same system thats not gonna be able to use better tech to deliver more gameplay features. No reason to not wait for Switch 2 to bring out a sequel that can improve the franchise in every way.

Again, unless Nintendo has brand new ideas to change up the Mario Kart formula there is no reason to bring another Mario Kart out on Switch in what would essentially amount to the same experience with new tracks. There are loads of franchises they haven't even released on Switch yet, it doesn't make business sense to put another MK on Switch when they have loads of IP still waiting for the Switch treatment which will add variety to the library.

These calls for having MK9 on Switch are ill conceived. Mario Kart is the Nintendo franchise that LEAST needs a second game on the Switch. Unless they change up the formula to bring a brand new experience to the Switch instead of basically new tracks, it makes much more sense to get a vastly upgraded game ready for Switch 2 launch a few years down the road. Two Mario Karts on Switch only makes sense to those who had it on the Wii U, which is obviously a small minority of Switch owners.

If you for some reason can't grasp the business sense of this, think about why a new GTA hasn't come out in a long time (only two GTAs have come out in the past 15 years!)...because the last one is still selling like crazy, and the company can focus efforts elsewhere while letting GTA V sell amazing numbers for years. Same deal with Mario Kart. For both of those franchises it makes sense to upgrade once a new gen comes out because they can make big upgrades to the experience. Going by the reasoning of people in the last few posts here, Rockstar should be coming out with a GTA far more often than that, but they know that doesn't make sense.

It would make wayyyyy more business sense for Nintendo to release an overpriced DLC course pack for MK8D with like two new cups for $30, and pick up a few hundred million dollars in revenue with only a fraction of the time and money spent on development and which would also spur on even greater sales of MK8D, rather than spend way more time and money to put a second MK on the same system that just offers a similar experience to what gamers have already spent $60 on, which would also delay by a few years a huge system seller for the Switch 2.

I voted 35-37.4 million. The Wii U and Switch releases combined will certainly outsell the 37.32 million units of Mario Kart Wii. But it's pretty likely that Mario Kart 8 Deluxe will match or slightly exceed Mario Kart Wii. I think 50 million is very much out of the question. Stranger things have happened in gaming, but that's a really high number to reach.

MK Wii has the current MK series record of over 37M on a 101M user base, so I'd say MK8D can do over 40M on NS, unless Ninty makes another MK for NS, "stealing" some of the older one future sales.

Yeah but Wii wasn't hurt by having also sold on the GameCube. 8 Delux was hurt some by it's release on Wii U beforehand. There are people like me, that purchased both versions, but of the millions that bought the standard 8 I'm sure a good portion of them didn't buy Delux.