A couple of years ago I put Mario Kart 8 D in the 40m-50m range.  Now that I have to narrow my guess, I'll put it at the high end of 47.5m - 50m.

Bonus: I don't know if they will release Mario Kart 9 or not.  If I have to bet, I'd bet against it.  I think it is wiser for them to keep developing new games or at least sequels to franchises we don't have yet.  However, I understand why they might just release MK9 anyway.  As I said, I'd bet against it, but I wouldn't blame them if they had a MK9 release on the Switch.

I'm going on the lower end with 32.5 - 34.9 million, because...

Bonus: It seems insane to think they won't release a new Mario Kart for possibly 10+ years, depending on when Switch's successor launches. People need to remember it's already been 6 years since it released on Wii U, and outside of fixing battle mode which was practically an unfinished project, they haven't added any new maps since the last DLC pack for Wii U.

There's enough time to launch MK9 for Switch in 2021/2022, have that fuel sales until the Switch's successor in 2024/2025, and still have the next Mario Kart ready for that system possibly year two or three. Rather than the stale approach of launching a system with a new Mario Kart (having to hold it back for years and avoiding all those potential sales on Switch, plus the extra boost for Switch), they'll actually try something like maybe a reboot of F-Zero in year one, with a new Mario Kart a couple years later.

If MK8 was going the distance, I have to believe we would've gotten some new DLC by now.

It’ll hit over 45mil, a think MK9 is coming to NSW

I went for 42.5 to 45mil
I really think MK9 won't happen on switch. Or maybe as a cross-gen with switch's successor like Twilight Princess and BOTW did.
I mean, it wouldn't be clever to release it on switch when MK8D is currently the best selling game of the system, it still sells around 4mil on the 3rd quarter and around 7-8mil per year. It still moves a lot of hardware and has a crazy attach rate.

IMO launching the next gen system along with MK9 would be the smartest move and a guarantee to sell tons of systems at launch.

I'd say around 45M

Still remember when everybody said the MK8 couldn't possibly catch up to MKWii even with the Wii U numbers added on top...

I honestly think 50 mil+ is achievable. If we look at shipments so far:

2017: 7,33 mil (launched in april)
2018: 7,69 mil
2019 7,94 mil

Shipments have been INCREASING rather than decreasing and judging by Q1 of this year and the switch in general selling like nuts that'll probably continue for this year as well. Obviously that trend can't last forever, but that would still put it at 31 mil+ by the end of this year with the Switch probably only being around halfway in it's lifecycle. If it does ship 8 mil this year, 19 mil over the rest of the Switch's life seems quite possible to me.

If MK9 launches on Switch this will obviously be thrown off though, but to answer the bonus question I don't expect that.

44.7 Million on the dot.


MK9 will not be on Switch, it will launch on Switch 2 in Q1 2024.

42.5-44.9 seems reasonable unless we get Mario Kart 9 soon. For the love of god give us some new dlc courses if we are not getting 9! I've been playing the same courses since May 2014 and need at least 16 new courses!

I just voted for just under 40 million, but after looking at the quarterly numbers I think somewhere in the 42.5-44.9 is more likely.

If I had to bet I'd say MK9 will be Switch 2 launch title. The only reason I could see MK9 coming out on Switch would be if they make significant changes to the formula. Just another Mario Kart with new courses wouldn't make sense as it would directly compete with the best selling evergreen on the system. I certainly wouldn't bother buying just a second standard Mario Kart on the Switch. If they were thinking about that they should just release a DLC course pack for MK8D.

I don't know what a formula change for Mario Kart would be, but if they gave it the BotW treatment are really gave Mario Kart a new feel that provided a noticeable difference between it and MK8D then I could see that coming out on Switch. And it's not a bad idea for Nintendo to experiment with it, they already have MK8D on Switch, the Switch is super popular so it would be a great time to throw in an experimental Mario Kart. If they release a new style MK9 experiment and it fails they can just go back to the old formula for MK10 on Switch 2.

The only revamped formula ideas for a potential second MK on Switch I can think of would be like a DKR treatment where you add in boats and planes and bosses, or an open world style that somehow makes sense and is fun haha, or my favorite idea a "nintendo kart" style game where it goes more the Smash route of fully embracing non-Mario franchises (which MK8 started a little bit with some Fzero, animal crossing, and zelda content) and they bring whole new courses levels and concepts, weapons, and characters from a variety of franchises, maybe even third party franchises like Smash does.

Same old Mario Kart formula should not come out again on Switch, but a new formula for the series (which lets be honest the series is ripe for a new take) I would be very excited about despite being a second Mario Kart on the same system and would be a great addition to the Switch library and another guaranteed 20+ million mega seller.

38 end 2021=> march 2022 new console + new MK