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Slownenberg on 13 July 2020
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I just voted for just under 40 million, but after looking at the quarterly numbers I think somewhere in the 42.5-44.9 is more likely.

If I had to bet I'd say MK9 will be Switch 2 launch title. The only reason I could see MK9 coming out on Switch would be if they make significant changes to the formula. Just another Mario Kart with new courses wouldn't make sense as it would directly compete with the best selling evergreen on the system. I certainly wouldn't bother buying just a second standard Mario Kart on the Switch. If they were thinking about that they should just release a DLC course pack for MK8D.

I don't know what a formula change for Mario Kart would be, but if they gave it the BotW treatment are really gave Mario Kart a new feel that provided a noticeable difference between it and MK8D then I could see that coming out on Switch. And it's not a bad idea for Nintendo to experiment with it, they already have MK8D on Switch, the Switch is super popular so it would be a great time to throw in an experimental Mario Kart. If they release a new style MK9 experiment and it fails they can just go back to the old formula for MK10 on Switch 2.

The only revamped formula ideas for a potential second MK on Switch I can think of would be like a DKR treatment where you add in boats and planes and bosses, or an open world style that somehow makes sense and is fun haha, or my favorite idea a "nintendo kart" style game where it goes more the Smash route of fully embracing non-Mario franchises (which MK8 started a little bit with some Fzero, animal crossing, and zelda content) and they bring whole new courses levels and concepts, weapons, and characters from a variety of franchises, maybe even third party franchises like Smash does.

Same old Mario Kart formula should not come out again on Switch, but a new formula for the series (which lets be honest the series is ripe for a new take) I would be very excited about despite being a second Mario Kart on the same system and would be a great addition to the Switch library and another guaranteed 20+ million mega seller.