Forums - Nintendo Discussion - NSW is here to Stay!! Itís Life Will Be Long and No Successor Will Come Before 2025!

When will NSW2 come out?

2022 Holiday 11 10.28%
 
2023 Spring 17 15.89%
 
2023 Holiday 21 19.63%
 
2024 Spring 35 32.71%
 
2024 Holiday 15 14.02%
 
2025 Spring 7 6.54%
 
2025 Holiday 0 0.00%
 
2026+ 1 0.93%
 
Total:107
Otter said:
Alby_da_Wolf said:

2024. As long as games not developed on NS first will be developed for PS4 and XBOne too, there will be little or no difficulty at all porting them to NS too

There is already a lot of difficulty porting to Switch from PS4/Xbox One, so much so that most AAA games skip the platform entirely, those that don't often come late and require entire seperate teams. With the event of PS5/SX, games will also become less optimised for PS4/Xbox One 

More than conceptually difficult, I'd rather say that for AAA titles it may become time consuming. Scaling down textures and, if necessary, redesign the least important game item models with less polygons doesn't affect the gameplay and game engine, but AAA titles with a reputation on graphics to defend can't just scale down with mostly automatic tools, they must check and tweak the results carefully to keep them as good looking as possible even at lower res, this surely makes managers question the opportunity and profitability of some ports, but as far as we know some ports could be simply delayed to arrive when the NS user base will be larger than now. Another factor is that a large part of NS users are mostly great fans of titles developed for portables and/or family and party titles, this can make devs and publishers predict that some PC and home console titles would attract a too small share of NS users. Obviously this evaluation may be totally wrong, and anyhow those that must decide know that even a very pessimistic prediction about the percent of NS gamers interested in a game can eventually take to an absolute number worth the investment once the total NS user base becomes large enough.
Anyhow, I see that we both agree that the more games will become optimised for PS5 and XBSX, the more difficult NS ports will become, up to eventually become impossible.
I'd add another thing: NS shows Ninty that, at least for Ninty itself, hybrid is the way, so, even with a dropping 3rd party support, unless it drops really too fast,  a new NS can't come too soon, as it would make it too difficult to make it powerful enough when undocked. Luckily for Ninty, thanks to the faster growing mobile market,  ARM CPUs development can react faster than Intel and AMD to new requirements.



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I think the switch will last until 2024 spring at the very least. Nintendo still has a huge buttload of games it can bring to the console and in terms of sale, it's not slowing down any time soon. Also Ninty might want to enjoy the harvest period of the console for a bit longer so they could stretch it out as far as spring 2025. Right now looking at sales, it seems like Ninty can do no wrong. I won't be surprised to suddenly learn clubhouse has reached 1mil or something. You never know which Ninty game can be the next big thing like how Ring fit was. And every game franchise seems to be selling the best or close to the best on switch. The biggest example is Zelda.



Just a guy who doesn't want to be bored. Also

Amnesia said:
I am still a believer for a collapse of the sales after Christmas 2020 (the next in 6 months).
Then in 2021 a new console is presented, and it comes out in 2022.
It is not the announcement which makes collapse the sales in my scenario, but the Switch will simply run out of interest.

Post bookmarked for future reference. :p



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series X will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

curl-6 said:
Amnesia said:
I am still a believer for a collapse of the sales after Christmas 2020 (the next in 6 months).
Then in 2021 a new console is presented, and it comes out in 2022.
It is not the announcement which makes collapse the sales in my scenario, but the Switch will simply run out of interest.

Post bookmarked for future reference. :p

im suprised you didn't agree with the content of that post



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kirby007 said:
curl-6 said:

Post bookmarked for future reference. :p

im suprised you didn't agree with the content of that post

I go back and forth depending on my level of anxiety and depression. For today, both are relatively in check.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series X will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

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Six months is not a long period to wait, we can check that.



I think we're going to see Switch 2 sooner than many seem to think. I will be shocked if Switch 2 isn't out by Spring 2023 personally. Next gen is coming soon and PS4/XB1 support will be dropped from 90% of games by Q2 2022. While it is affordable for a PS4/XB1 game to be downgraded to run on Switch, the downgrades required to get next-gen games to run on Switch will be far more extensive and costly. And I can't see Nintendo allowing 3rd party support to mostly disappear from 2022-2025, 3 whole years, lol, they know from past generations that 3rd party support is essential for success, 1st/2nd party and indies can only move but so many units before sales dry up. By Q1 2023 a Switch 2 with significantly better specs will be possible for $300-350, specs that aren't too much lower than the rumored 4 tflop Xbox Lockhart, which should make getting next-gen 3rd party support even easier for Nintendo to get than current gen 3rd party support on Switch 1. I absolutely expect Nintendo to take advantage of that.



shikamaru317 said:

I think we're going to see Switch 2 sooner than many seem to think. I will be shocked if Switch 2 isn't out by Spring 2023 personally. Next gen is coming soon and PS4/XB1 support will be dropped from 90% of games by Q2 2022. While it is affordable for a PS4/XB1 game to be downgraded to run on Switch, the downgrades required to get next-gen games to run on Switch will be far more extensive and costly. And I can't see Nintendo allowing 3rd party support to mostly disappear from 2022-2025, 3 whole years, lol, they know from past generations that 3rd party support is essential for success, 1st/2nd party and indies can only move but so many units before sales dry up. By Q1 2023 a Switch 2 with significantly better specs will be possible for $300-350, specs that aren't too much lower than the rumored 4 tflop Xbox Lockhart, which should make getting next-gen 3rd party support even easier for Nintendo to get than current gen 3rd party support on Switch 1. I absolutely expect Nintendo to take advantage of that.

I think you are not understanding truly why Wii U failed where the switch succeeded and severely underestimating the switch. The switch will continue to sell with or without big third party support. And support will still come because of the sales it has and the fact that it will have unreal engine 5. The really advanced 3rd party games aren't necessary for the switch's success or any Ninty console's success. Plus the tone of the console is set in the first 2 years and it;s really hard to shake that. If it's poor, turning it around requires a lot of effort and if it's really good, you have to screw up royally to make things go bad. Spring 2023 is the earliest, not the latest. Spring 2024 is the most reasonable and there's a possibility of spring 2025. People forget that the longer Ninty waits, the more advanced the switch 2 can be based on a reasonable price. 

So your assumption is that in 2023, it will be a big weaker than Lockhart. What if I'm 2024, it's a bit stronger and in 2025, it's much closer to XSeX than Lockhart. The switch will continue to sell so why wouldn't they just delay it a bit and make ,ore profit from it. They still haven't released a pro model that will extend the lifetime of the console even more. Or even made one price cut to the OG console.



Just a guy who doesn't want to be bored. Also

I actually don't think I'd want to have to wait until 2025 for Switch's successor.

Systems start get boring and feel stale after a while, and 8 years is just too long. Pretty sure by then I'll be sick of Switch.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series X will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

curl-6 said:

If they capitalize on their momentum in the first half of the year, Switch's 2020 sales total could be one of the highest for any game system ever.

Unfortunately, they are currently showing no sign at all of doing so. 

If the Mario collection is handled properly it can be incredibly HUGE for the holidays. We know it's coming they just haven't announced it yet so we shouldn't fear over that. There is a pretty big game coming in 3 weeks. We should get news for rest of the year soon.