Switch 19:1 over PS4 for the week. I would say it's time for PS5, and indeed it is, but I expect PS5 will sell similarly to PS4 in Japan, if not less.
Does Nintendo even need a big holiday game?? All this pent up demand will make holiday sales explode without much effort. Stock will be the only barrier imo
The holidays are 5-6 months away, their current momentum will lose steam by then if not sustained by regular new releases.
Though I say we wait as I think Nintendo has a little different strategy in terms of announcing software (like Paper Mario) it doesn’t need a big holiday game, it’s not losing steam at all. If your going by japan sales only, demand is not close of being met nor will it during June/July and possibly further ahead.
even with only let’s say pikmin 3 deluxe / Mario 3D collection / sm3dwd / another new game (insert smaller IP or new) / paper Mario (I think people underestimating this game) For July-Nov NSW sales won’t slow down, it’s on track already to hit 19mil.
again Q1 will be huge, NSW in japan is already ahead of every Q1 previously by a huge margin (see below) and that’s with extreme supply limited as lotteries are worse than anything before. This puts Q2 at a huge advantage going forward and even that might be limited supply. If that does happen then you can expect Q3 needs to have huge shipments to be put on store shelves and keep up with demand
Top 5 Q2 ever (3ds/NSW)
861k (3DS 2012)
671k (NSW 2020) <<<<< 4weeks left
626k (3DS 2013)
531k (NSW 2019)
484k (NSW 2018)
lastly, the evergreens you are hugely underestimating. Me and you both want our new games but your not looking at new consumers. Only us with NSW already. Ring fit and AC will keep hw numbers going (ring fit especially for normal NSW sky) and then there is all the other collection of evergreens that are piling up