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Forums - Sales Discussion - Famitsu Sales: Week 22, 2020 (May 25 - May 31)

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tbone51 on 04 June 2020
curl-6 said:
tbone51 said:

Though I say we wait as I think Nintendo has a little different strategy in terms of announcing software (like Paper Mario) it doesn’t need a big holiday game, it’s not losing steam at all. If your going by japan sales only, demand is not close of being met nor will it during June/July and possibly further ahead. 

even with only let’s say pikmin 3 deluxe / Mario 3D collection / sm3dwd / another new game (insert smaller IP or new) / paper Mario (I think people underestimating this game) For July-Nov NSW sales won’t slow down, it’s on track already to hit 19mil.

again Q1 will be huge, NSW in japan is already ahead of every Q1 previously by a huge margin (see below) and that’s with extreme supply limited as lotteries are worse than anything before. This puts Q2 at a huge advantage going forward and even that might be limited supply. If that does happen then you can expect Q3 needs to have huge shipments to be put on store shelves and keep up with demand

Top 5 Q2 ever (3ds/NSW)

861k (3DS 2012)
671k (NSW 2020) <<<<< 4weeks left
626k (3DS 2013)
531k (NSW 2019)
484k (NSW 2018)

lastly, the evergreens you are hugely underestimating. Me and you both want our new games but your not looking at new consumers. Only us with NSW already. Ring fit and AC will keep hw numbers going (ring fit especially for normal NSW sky) and then there is all the other collection of evergreens that are piling up

Was meaning more globally, and while I doubt they'll fall short of 19m, even selling 20-21 million would be a big decline in momentum from where they are currently at; with the proper software they could hit 24-25 million. But old ports won't achieve that.

Ok so globally it is then. 20-21mil would be extraordinary by where it’s currently at without big software, you do realize that right? With Nintendo sold out of hardware almost all WW, no big games like you said and only ports / AC momentum/ paper Mario / DLC / etc would be more impressive than it did year before.

also you said momentum, let me ask you this. If Nintendo did do 20-21mil with just all that, what the hell you think is going to happen in FY2022 with actually big games/much more software/new model/etc?  That would mean momentum is still going strong even better than if it were to do 24-25mil with big games/more software :)



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newwil7l on 04 June 2020

AC has sold around 660k in Japan since the 13.44m published sales figure for AC. Putting it at 14m already with Japan alone. Assuming it continues to have a 10 to 3 ratio of worldwide and Japanese physical sales then its already at 15.64 sell through. Probably 16m shipped. This will probably be at 17.5 by the time we get the Q1 results in July.



Kai_Mao on 04 June 2020

It will be sometime before we will ever see something like Animal Crossing New Horizons again. You can say it was a perfect storm or it was estimated to do really well thanks to the success of New Leaf and Switch, respectively. But to sell so well more than 2 months after launch and avoid being significantly affected by stock issues is phenomenal.



tbone51 on 04 June 2020
newwil7l said:
AC has sold around 660k in Japan since the 13.44m published sales figure for AC. Putting it at 14m already with Japan alone. Assuming it continues to have a 10 to 3 ratio of worldwide and Japanese physical sales then its already at 15.64 sell through. Probably 16m shipped. This will probably be at 17.5 by the time we get the Q1 results in July.

No much higher, 13.44mil figure was Japan/US/Europe. It’s missing sales, sales that would most likely put it around or possibly above 15mil. (Rest of NoA/Rest of Asia/rest of world). Sell thru is most likely closer to 16.5mil or 17mil now



curl-6 on 04 June 2020
tbone51 said:
curl-6 said:

Was meaning more globally, and while I doubt they'll fall short of 19m, even selling 20-21 million would be a big decline in momentum from where they are currently at; with the proper software they could hit 24-25 million. But old ports won't achieve that.

Ok so globally it is then. 20-21mil would be extraordinary by where it’s currently at without big software, you do realize that right? With Nintendo sold out of hardware almost all WW, no big games like you said and only ports / AC momentum/ paper Mario / DLC / etc would be more impressive than it did year before.

also you said momentum, let me ask you this. If Nintendo did do 20-21mil with just all that, what the hell you think is going to happen in FY2022 with actually big games/much more software/new model/etc?  That would mean momentum is still going strong even better than if it were to do 24-25mil with big games/more software :)

We don't know yet that they don't have big new games still to come this year. (Beyond Paper Mario) I'm choosing to be optimistic and still hope.



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tbone51 on 04 June 2020
curl-6 said:
tbone51 said:

Ok so globally it is then. 20-21mil would be extraordinary by where it’s currently at without big software, you do realize that right? With Nintendo sold out of hardware almost all WW, no big games like you said and only ports / AC momentum/ paper Mario / DLC / etc would be more impressive than it did year before.

also you said momentum, let me ask you this. If Nintendo did do 20-21mil with just all that, what the hell you think is going to happen in FY2022 with actually big games/much more software/new model/etc?  That would mean momentum is still going strong even better than if it were to do 24-25mil with big games/more software :)

We don't know yet that they don't have big new games still to come this year. (Beyond Paper Mario) I'm choosing to be optimistic and still hope.

Oh me as well, release FZero!!!!!!!! Or maybe a New big IP.... something good!!!



The_Liquid_Laser on 04 June 2020
kirby007 said:
SpokenTruth said:

Only if they never release another game in Japan.

Seriously though, why is this even a contemplation?

because if this is the last big trick it wont reach 22 million in japan

Switch's last big trick in Japan is called "third party domination".  Every dev that made games for 3DS and Vita will make games for Switch.  Also most of the PS4 third party devs will also be making Switch games.  Switch is already the primary home system in Japan.  That means it's going to be the platform for most Japanese devs that were making games for the PS4.

The only reason to make a game for the PS5 is if it has a significant Western market (e.g. Final Fantasy, Resident Evil, etc...).  The vast majority of Japanese third party titles will be on Switch and many of those will be exclusives.  It doesn't make financial sense for third parties to do otherwise.  Switch is going to be the dominant platform for third parties at least until Nintendo releases a successor.



curl-6 bet me that PS5 + X|S sales would reach 56m before year end 2023 and he was right.
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MasonADC on 04 June 2020
The_Liquid_Laser said:
kirby007 said:

because if this is the last big trick it wont reach 22 million in japan

Switch's last big trick in Japan is called "third party domination".  Every dev that made games for 3DS and Vita will make games for Switch.  Also most of the PS4 third party devs will also be making Switch games.  Switch is already the primary home system in Japan.  That means it's going to be the platform for most Japanese devs that were making games for the PS4.

The only reason to make a game for the PS5 is if it has a significant Western market (e.g. Final Fantasy, Resident Evil, etc...).  The vast majority of Japanese third party titles will be on Switch and many of those will be exclusives.  It doesn't make financial sense for third parties to do otherwise.  Switch is going to be the dominant platform for third parties at least until Nintendo releases a successor.

When does this third party domination start? 



curl-6 on 04 June 2020

Yeah I'm starting to doubt this surge of third party Switch support from Japanese developers will ever materialize. No matter how well Switch sells, they continue to snub it.



Kai_Mao on 05 June 2020
The_Liquid_Laser said:
kirby007 said:

because if this is the last big trick it wont reach 22 million in japan

Switch's last big trick in Japan is called "third party domination".  Every dev that made games for 3DS and Vita will make games for Switch.  Also most of the PS4 third party devs will also be making Switch games.  Switch is already the primary home system in Japan.  That means it's going to be the platform for most Japanese devs that were making games for the PS4.

The only reason to make a game for the PS5 is if it has a significant Western market (e.g. Final Fantasy, Resident Evil, etc...).  The vast majority of Japanese third party titles will be on Switch and many of those will be exclusives.  It doesn't make financial sense for third parties to do otherwise.  Switch is going to be the dominant platform for third parties at least until Nintendo releases a successor.

Until I see games like Persona 5 Royal, Kingdom Hearts 1.5 + 2.5 + whatever is left, Street Fighter (beyond the anniversary collection), Soul Calibur, Tomb Raider, Yakuza, Tekken, etc., I won’t hold my breath. Hell, I would be shocked if any of these devs release an original semi-AAA game on the Switch. Sure, we have games like Bayo 3, Bravely Default II, No More Heroes 3, and SMT V, but two of them are Nintendo published (so they needed a little help to get them off the ground), and we haven’t heard anything much from SMT V and I’m not sure if Atlus will place as much care on that game as they did with Persona 5. Dragon Quest XI S shows that these high-profile Japanese titles can perform well on Switch. Sure it’s not RE2R or FFVIIR, but it’s still a high-profile game on Switch. Unless I see any sign of that on Switch beyond what we know now, ports and original games, I will brush off the possibility.

As I said before, what more do the Japanese devs want at this point? Nintendo to $&@? their you-know-what’s to be even “considered” as part of their dev plans? I don’t know.