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Forums - Sales Discussion - Famitsu Sales: Week 22, 2020 (May 25 - May 31)

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Check this out, didn’t realize even if Q2 is by far the slowest quarter, NSW 2020 would of done soooo much better than even Q3 usual does. Anyways between the 3ds and itself for all Q2 these are the best ones...

Top 5 Q2 ever (3ds/NSW)

861k (3DS 2012)
671k (NSW 2020)



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Switch 19:1 over PS4 for the week. I would say it's time for PS5, and indeed it is, but I expect PS5 will sell similarly to PS4 in Japan, if not less.

PortisheadBiscuit said:
Does Nintendo even need a big holiday game?? All this pent up demand will make holiday sales explode without much effort. Stock will be the only barrier imo

The holidays are 5-6 months away, their current momentum will lose steam by then if not sustained by regular new releases.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

kirby007 said:
SpokenTruth said:

Only if they never release another game in Japan.

Seriously though, why is this even a contemplation?

because if this is the last big trick it wont reach 22 million in japan

Not sure if serious, if so then I’m feeling bad for you. 3ds did 24.5mil and NSW is currently closing the gap launch align (under 1.9mil and going strong). 3ds best years were in its 1st 3 years, but NSW is a different story. NSW would really need to fall off a cliff for it to not reach 22mil. 



curl-6 said:

Switch 19:1 over PS4 for the week. I would say it's time for PS5, and indeed it is, but I expect PS5 will sell similarly to PS4 in Japan, if not less.

PortisheadBiscuit said:
Does Nintendo even need a big holiday game?? All this pent up demand will make holiday sales explode without much effort. Stock will be the only barrier imo

The holidays are 5-6 months away, their current momentum will lose steam by then if not sustained by regular new releases.

Though I say we wait as I think Nintendo has a little different strategy in terms of announcing software (like Paper Mario) it doesn’t need a big holiday game, it’s not losing steam at all. If your going by japan sales only, demand is not close of being met nor will it during June/July and possibly further ahead. 

even with only let’s say pikmin 3 deluxe / Mario 3D collection / sm3dwd / another new game (insert smaller IP or new) / paper Mario (I think people underestimating this game) For July-Nov NSW sales won’t slow down, it’s on track already to hit 19mil.

again Q1 will be huge, NSW in japan is already ahead of every Q1 previously by a huge margin (see below) and that’s with extreme supply limited as lotteries are worse than anything before. This puts Q2 at a huge advantage going forward and even that might be limited supply. If that does happen then you can expect Q3 needs to have huge shipments to be put on store shelves and keep up with demand

Top 5 Q2 ever (3ds/NSW)

861k (3DS 2012)
671k (NSW 2020) <<<<< 4weeks left
626k (3DS 2013)
531k (NSW 2019)
484k (NSW 2018)

lastly, the evergreens you are hugely underestimating. Me and you both want our new games but your not looking at new consumers. Only us with NSW already. Ring fit and AC will keep hw numbers going (ring fit especially for normal NSW sky) and then there is all the other collection of evergreens that are piling up



tbone51 said:
curl-6 said:

Switch 19:1 over PS4 for the week. I would say it's time for PS5, and indeed it is, but I expect PS5 will sell similarly to PS4 in Japan, if not less.

The holidays are 5-6 months away, their current momentum will lose steam by then if not sustained by regular new releases.

Though I say we wait as I think Nintendo has a little different strategy in terms of announcing software (like Paper Mario) it doesn’t need a big holiday game, it’s not losing steam at all. If your going by japan sales only, demand is not close of being met nor will it during June/July and possibly further ahead. 

even with only let’s say pikmin 3 deluxe / Mario 3D collection / sm3dwd / another new game (insert smaller IP or new) / paper Mario (I think people underestimating this game) For July-Nov NSW sales won’t slow down, it’s on track already to hit 19mil.

again Q1 will be huge, NSW in japan is already ahead of every Q1 previously by a huge margin (see below) and that’s with extreme supply limited as lotteries are worse than anything before. This puts Q2 at a huge advantage going forward and even that might be limited supply. If that does happen then you can expect Q3 needs to have huge shipments to be put on store shelves and keep up with demand

Top 5 Q2 ever (3ds/NSW)

861k (3DS 2012)
671k (NSW 2020) <<<<< 4weeks left
626k (3DS 2013)
531k (NSW 2019)
484k (NSW 2018)

lastly, the evergreens you are hugely underestimating. Me and you both want our new games but your not looking at new consumers. Only us with NSW already. Ring fit and AC will keep hw numbers going (ring fit especially for normal NSW sky) and then there is all the other collection of evergreens that are piling up

Was meaning more globally, and while I doubt they'll fall short of 19m, even selling 20-21 million would be a big decline in momentum from where they are currently at; with the proper software they could hit 24-25 million. But old ports won't achieve that.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

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curl-6 said:
tbone51 said:

Though I say we wait as I think Nintendo has a little different strategy in terms of announcing software (like Paper Mario) it doesn’t need a big holiday game, it’s not losing steam at all. If your going by japan sales only, demand is not close of being met nor will it during June/July and possibly further ahead. 

even with only let’s say pikmin 3 deluxe / Mario 3D collection / sm3dwd / another new game (insert smaller IP or new) / paper Mario (I think people underestimating this game) For July-Nov NSW sales won’t slow down, it’s on track already to hit 19mil.

again Q1 will be huge, NSW in japan is already ahead of every Q1 previously by a huge margin (see below) and that’s with extreme supply limited as lotteries are worse than anything before. This puts Q2 at a huge advantage going forward and even that might be limited supply. If that does happen then you can expect Q3 needs to have huge shipments to be put on store shelves and keep up with demand

Top 5 Q2 ever (3ds/NSW)

861k (3DS 2012)
671k (NSW 2020) <<<<< 4weeks left
626k (3DS 2013)
531k (NSW 2019)
484k (NSW 2018)

lastly, the evergreens you are hugely underestimating. Me and you both want our new games but your not looking at new consumers. Only us with NSW already. Ring fit and AC will keep hw numbers going (ring fit especially for normal NSW sky) and then there is all the other collection of evergreens that are piling up

Was meaning more globally, and while I doubt they'll fall short of 19m, even selling 20-21 million would be a big decline in momentum from where they are currently at; with the proper software they could hit 24-25 million. But old ports won't achieve that.

Ok so globally it is then. 20-21mil would be extraordinary by where it’s currently at without big software, you do realize that right? With Nintendo sold out of hardware almost all WW, no big games like you said and only ports / AC momentum/ paper Mario / DLC / etc would be more impressive than it did year before.

also you said momentum, let me ask you this. If Nintendo did do 20-21mil with just all that, what the hell you think is going to happen in FY2022 with actually big games/much more software/new model/etc?  That would mean momentum is still going strong even better than if it were to do 24-25mil with big games/more software :)



AC has sold around 660k in Japan since the 13.44m published sales figure for AC. Putting it at 14m already with Japan alone. Assuming it continues to have a 10 to 3 ratio of worldwide and Japanese physical sales then its already at 15.64 sell through. Probably 16m shipped. This will probably be at 17.5 by the time we get the Q1 results in July.



It will be sometime before we will ever see something like Animal Crossing New Horizons again. You can say it was a perfect storm or it was estimated to do really well thanks to the success of New Leaf and Switch, respectively. But to sell so well more than 2 months after launch and avoid being significantly affected by stock issues is phenomenal.



newwil7l said:
AC has sold around 660k in Japan since the 13.44m published sales figure for AC. Putting it at 14m already with Japan alone. Assuming it continues to have a 10 to 3 ratio of worldwide and Japanese physical sales then its already at 15.64 sell through. Probably 16m shipped. This will probably be at 17.5 by the time we get the Q1 results in July.

No much higher, 13.44mil figure was Japan/US/Europe. It’s missing sales, sales that would most likely put it around or possibly above 15mil. (Rest of NoA/Rest of Asia/rest of world). Sell thru is most likely closer to 16.5mil or 17mil now



tbone51 said:
curl-6 said:

Was meaning more globally, and while I doubt they'll fall short of 19m, even selling 20-21 million would be a big decline in momentum from where they are currently at; with the proper software they could hit 24-25 million. But old ports won't achieve that.

Ok so globally it is then. 20-21mil would be extraordinary by where it’s currently at without big software, you do realize that right? With Nintendo sold out of hardware almost all WW, no big games like you said and only ports / AC momentum/ paper Mario / DLC / etc would be more impressive than it did year before.

also you said momentum, let me ask you this. If Nintendo did do 20-21mil with just all that, what the hell you think is going to happen in FY2022 with actually big games/much more software/new model/etc?  That would mean momentum is still going strong even better than if it were to do 24-25mil with big games/more software :)

We don't know yet that they don't have big new games still to come this year. (Beyond Paper Mario) I'm choosing to be optimistic and still hope.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.