because if this is the last big trick it wont reach 22 million in japan
Switch's last big trick in Japan is called "third party domination". Every dev that made games for 3DS and Vita will make games for Switch. Also most of the PS4 third party devs will also be making Switch games. Switch is already the primary home system in Japan. That means it's going to be the platform for most Japanese devs that were making games for the PS4.
The only reason to make a game for the PS5 is if it has a significant Western market (e.g. Final Fantasy, Resident Evil, etc...). The vast majority of Japanese third party titles will be on Switch and many of those will be exclusives. It doesn't make financial sense for third parties to do otherwise. Switch is going to be the dominant platform for third parties at least until Nintendo releases a successor.
Until I see games like Persona 5 Royal, Kingdom Hearts 1.5 + 2.5 + whatever is left, Street Fighter (beyond the anniversary collection), Soul Calibur, Tomb Raider, Yakuza, Tekken, etc., I won’t hold my breath. Hell, I would be shocked if any of these devs release an original semi-AAA game on the Switch. Sure, we have games like Bayo 3, Bravely Default II, No More Heroes 3, and SMT V, but two of them are Nintendo published (so they needed a little help to get them off the ground), and we haven’t heard anything much from SMT V and I’m not sure if Atlus will place as much care on that game as they did with Persona 5. Dragon Quest XI S shows that these high-profile Japanese titles can perform well on Switch. Sure it’s not RE2R or FFVIIR, but it’s still a high-profile game on Switch. Unless I see any sign of that on Switch beyond what we know now, ports and original games, I will brush off the possibility.
As I said before, what more do the Japanese devs want at this point? Nintendo to $&@? their you-know-what’s to be even “considered” as part of their dev plans? I don’t know.