curl-6 said:
tbone51 said:
Though I say we wait as I think Nintendo has a little different strategy in terms of announcing software (like Paper Mario) it doesn’t need a big holiday game, it’s not losing steam at all. If your going by japan sales only, demand is not close of being met nor will it during June/July and possibly further ahead.
even with only let’s say pikmin 3 deluxe / Mario 3D collection / sm3dwd / another new game (insert smaller IP or new) / paper Mario (I think people underestimating this game) For July-Nov NSW sales won’t slow down, it’s on track already to hit 19mil.
again Q1 will be huge, NSW in japan is already ahead of every Q1 previously by a huge margin (see below) and that’s with extreme supply limited as lotteries are worse than anything before. This puts Q2 at a huge advantage going forward and even that might be limited supply. If that does happen then you can expect Q3 needs to have huge shipments to be put on store shelves and keep up with demand
Top 5 Q2 ever (3ds/NSW)
861k (3DS 2012)
671k (NSW 2020) <<<<< 4weeks left
626k (3DS 2013)
531k (NSW 2019)
484k (NSW 2018)
lastly, the evergreens you are hugely underestimating. Me and you both want our new games but your not looking at new consumers. Only us with NSW already. Ring fit and AC will keep hw numbers going (ring fit especially for normal NSW sky) and then there is all the other collection of evergreens that are piling up
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Was meaning more globally, and while I doubt they'll fall short of 19m, even selling 20-21 million would be a big decline in momentum from where they are currently at; with the proper software they could hit 24-25 million. But old ports won't achieve that.
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Ok so globally it is then. 20-21mil would be extraordinary by where it’s currently at without big software, you do realize that right? With Nintendo sold out of hardware almost all WW, no big games like you said and only ports / AC momentum/ paper Mario / DLC / etc would be more impressive than it did year before.
also you said momentum, let me ask you this. If Nintendo did do 20-21mil with just all that, what the hell you think is going to happen in FY2022 with actually big games/much more software/new model/etc? That would mean momentum is still going strong even better than if it were to do 24-25mil with big games/more software :)
