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Forums - Sales Discussion - VGChartz Gap Charts April 2020 Discussion Thread

curl-6 on 17 May 2020
trunkswd said:

Read and share this article here. As you can see I took advice from some of you and added months to the second chart. 

PS4 and Xbox One vs PS3 and Xbox 360 - VGChartz Gap Charts – April 2020

The VGChartz Gap charts are updated monthly and each article focuses on a different gap chart. The charts include comparisons between the 7th generation and 8th generation platforms, as well as comparisons within the 8th generation. All sales are worldwide, unless otherwise stated.

This monthly series compares the combined aligned sales of the PlayStation 4 and Xbox One with the combined aligned sales of the PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360.

Gap change in latest month: 301,823 – PS4 & XOne

Gap change over last 12 months: 6,440,016 – PS3 & X360

Total Lead: 12,920,046 – PS4 & XOne

Total Combined PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360 Sales: 143,520,877

Total Combined PlayStation 4 and Xbox One Sales: 156,440,923

In April 2020 the gap grew in favor of the combined sales PlayStation 4 and Xbox One when compared to the aligned launch of the PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360 in the last month by 301,823 units. In the last 12 months the PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360 have caught up by 6.44 million units. The PlayStation 4 and Xbox One lead by a combined 12.92 million units.

The PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360 in their first 78 months sold a combined 143.52 million units, while the PlayStation 4 and Xbox One have sold a combined 156.44 million units.

The PS3 and X360 sold a combined 173.22 million units lifetime. The PS4 and XOne are currently 16.78 million units away from surpassing the PS3 and X360.

Even on this chart you can see the pandemic boost, that little uptick at the end.

Question is, with PS4/Xbone having worse legs than PS3/360, can the former retain their lead or will they ultimately fall short of their last gen counterparts lifetime? After all, their lead was once nearly double what it is now.



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curl-6 on 17 May 2020
trunkswd said:
curl-6 said:

Even on this chart you can see the pandemic boost, that little uptick at the end.

Question is, with PS4/Xbone having worse legs than PS3/360, can the former retain their lead or will they ultimately fall short of their last gen counterparts lifetime? After all, their lead was once nearly double what it is now.

Do you think the PS4 and Xbox One could sell another 17 million units lifetime? And yes the pandemic has helped boost sales of video games across the board. 

Sony shipped 13.6 million PS4's from April 2019 to March 2020. Even if PS4 shipment figures drop by 50% per year that is 6.8 million for the current fiscal year, 3.4 million for the next, 1.7 million, and 0.85 million for a total of 12.75 million. Even with the PS5 coming out this holiday, I don't see PS4 shipment figures dropping by 50%. 

I don't know, with the future so uncertain right now it's hard to say how it will all play out. Will be interesting to watch.



derpysquirtle64 on 18 May 2020
trunkswd said:
curl-6 said:

Even on this chart you can see the pandemic boost, that little uptick at the end.

Question is, with PS4/Xbone having worse legs than PS3/360, can the former retain their lead or will they ultimately fall short of their last gen counterparts lifetime? After all, their lead was once nearly double what it is now.

Do you think the PS4 and Xbox One could sell another 17 million units lifetime? And yes the pandemic has helped boost sales of video games across the board. 

Sony shipped 13.6 million PS4's from April 2019 to March 2020. Even if PS4 shipment figures drop by 50% per year that is 6.8 million for the current fiscal year, 3.4 million for the next, 1.7 million, and 0.85 million for a total of 12.75 million. Even with the PS5 coming out this holiday, I don't see PS4 shipment figures dropping by 50%. 

It actually all depends on how much will PS4/XB1 be available on the market and how the release of next gen consoles will affect the sales of current gen consoles. But it will definitely be very close to what PS3/360 did. So, I would say that PS4/XB1 will sell around the same within a 1-2 million margin of error in any side.



 

The_Liquid_Laser on 18 May 2020
trunkswd said:

Read and share this article here. As you can see I took advice from some of you and added months to the second chart. 

PS4 and Xbox One vs PS3 and Xbox 360 - VGChartz Gap Charts – April 2020

The VGChartz Gap charts are updated monthly and each article focuses on a different gap chart. The charts include comparisons between the 7th generation and 8th generation platforms, as well as comparisons within the 8th generation. All sales are worldwide, unless otherwise stated.

This monthly series compares the combined aligned sales of the PlayStation 4 and Xbox One with the combined aligned sales of the PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360.

Gap change in latest month: 301,823 – PS4 & XOne

Gap change over last 12 months: 6,440,016 – PS3 & X360

Total Lead: 12,920,046 – PS4 & XOne

Total Combined PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360 Sales: 143,520,877

Total Combined PlayStation 4 and Xbox One Sales: 156,440,923

In April 2020 the gap grew in favor of the combined sales PlayStation 4 and Xbox One when compared to the aligned launch of the PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360 in the last month by 301,823 units. In the last 12 months the PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360 have caught up by 6.44 million units. The PlayStation 4 and Xbox One lead by a combined 12.92 million units.

The PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360 in their first 78 months sold a combined 143.52 million units, while the PlayStation 4 and Xbox One have sold a combined 156.44 million units.

The PS3 and X360 sold a combined 173.22 million units lifetime. The PS4 and XOne are currently 16.78 million units away from surpassing the PS3 and X360.

PS4+XB1 is going to be ahead at the end.  PS3+X360 actually lost customers to the Wii, especially during the first 4 years.  This is easy to see on the first chart where the peak of the gap is at month 49, which was also Wii's last really good month.  About a year later PS3+X360 starts to close the gap on current gen consoles.  The Wii gamers started to transition over, but not all of them made the transition.  So PS3+X360 ended up behind PS2+XB.  For the same reason I think PS3+X360 will also be behind PS4+XB1.



curl-6 bet me that PS5 + X|S sales would reach 56m before year end 2023 and he was right.
My Bet With curl-6

My Threads:
Master Thread, Game of the Year/Decade
Switch Will Be #1 All Time
Zelda Will Outsell Mario (Achieved)
How Much Will MH Rise sell?
My Bet With Metallox

The_Liquid_Laser on 18 May 2020
trunkswd said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

PS4+XB1 is going to be ahead at the end.  PS3+X360 actually lost customers to the Wii, especially during the first 4 years.  This is easy to see on the first chart where the peak of the gap is at month 49, which was also Wii's last really good month.  About a year later PS3+X360 starts to close the gap on current gen consoles.  The Wii gamers started to transition over, but not all of them made the transition.  So PS3+X360 ended up behind PS2+XB.  For the same reason I think PS3+X360 will also be behind PS4+XB1.

The Xbox 360 had 8 years on the market before the Xbox One launched and PS3 had 7 years before PS4 launched. Looks like PS4 and Xbox One will have 7 years to themselves before their successors launch this holiday season. I do think PS4 and Xbox One will beat out PS3 and Xbox 360 in the end. But not by a lot. Less than 5 million. 

You may be right about less than 5 million, especially if PS4 never gets a price cut.  They can definitely lose customers by pricing them out of the market.  

If PS4 gets down to at least $269, like the PS3, then I think there will be at least a 10 million difference which is similar to the loss going from Generation 6 to 7.  Those 10 million were lost to the Wii, but that market came back to Sony/Microsoft in Generation 8.  Instead they might just lose people who can't afford the current price.



curl-6 bet me that PS5 + X|S sales would reach 56m before year end 2023 and he was right.
My Bet With curl-6

My Threads:
Master Thread, Game of the Year/Decade
Switch Will Be #1 All Time
Zelda Will Outsell Mario (Achieved)
How Much Will MH Rise sell?
My Bet With Metallox

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curl-6 on 18 May 2020

Still confident Switch will outsell the Wii.



curl-6 on 18 May 2020
trunkswd said:
curl-6 said:
Still confident Switch will outsell the Wii.

Looking more likely as long as Nintendo continues to release games for the console. Paper Mario being announced so soon to release, bodes well for at least this holiday season when it comes to bigger releases. 

Yeah I was starting to get worried they were repeating Wii's mistake of jumping ship too early after they had nothing scheduled beyond this month, but Paper Mario being announced so close to release is a reassuring sign they've still got stuff up their sleeve.



curl-6 on 18 May 2020
trunkswd said:
curl-6 said:

Yeah I was starting to get worried they were repeating Wii's mistake of jumping ship too early after they had nothing scheduled beyond this month, but Paper Mario being announced so close to release is a reassuring sign they've still got stuff up their sleeve.

I'd rather they announce games further out. Not years and years, but I'd like to know what the big games for this holiday season are. Though, other than Halo Infinite, we don't really know the big games from Sony or Microsoft for this holiday season either. 

Yeah, personally I think games should be announced when they are 6-18 months off. Anything less than 6 leaves their future schedule looking too empty, any more than 18 is painful to wait for. (Granted I realize the pandemic makes it hard to date things far off atm)



curl-6 on 18 May 2020
trunkswd said:
curl-6 said:

Yeah, personally I think games should be announced when they are 6-18 months off. Anything less than 6 leaves their future schedule looking too empty, any more than 18 is painful to wait for. (Granted I realize the pandemic makes it hard to date things far off atm)

Exactly my thoughts on when to announce a game. Think about how long fans waited for Final Fantasy VII Remake or Kingdom Hearts 3. I guess Square Enix is the worst when it comes to announcing games too early. 

The pandemic has thrown off the development of all games. But I wouldn't mind Nintendo announcing a game and just giving a holiday 2020 release window or early 2021. They don't need to give an exact release date. 

Same. I also wish they'd just fucking show us stuff that's been announced for literal years but kept in the dark for no good reason like Bayonetta 3, it's infuriating the way some games are handled. Don't fucking announce shit if it's years away and you're not gonna show anything in the interim.



curl-6 on 18 May 2020
trunkswd said:
curl-6 said:

Same. I also wish they'd just fucking show us stuff that's been announced for literal years but kept in the dark for no good reason like Bayonetta 3, it's infuriating the way some games are handled. Don't fucking announce shit if it's years away and you're not gonna show anything in the interim.

I totally forgot about Metroid Prime 4 and even Breath of the Wild 2 (or whatever it will be called). I wonder if we will get a new trailer for BotW2 or some actual new MP4 information this year. I don't expect either of them to launch until 2021. Rumors point to 3D Mario remakes / collection and Mario 3D World Deluxe as the bigger games this holiday. I'm all for those games, but feel like they need a NEW big game for this holiday on top of those. 

I would give my right hand for a trailer of BOTW2, Bayonetta 3, or Prime 4, yet I feel like it'll be 2021 and we still won't have seen jack shit of any of them, and that fucking sucks.

And yeah, I'll be very disappointed if the rest of their 2020 lineup beyond Paper Mario is just reheated old games.