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Forums - Sales Discussion - VGChartz Gap Charts April 2020 Discussion Thread

According to VGChartz, PS2 sold 25.57 million outside the major regions (North America, Japan, and Europe) so not an insignificant amount.

PS2 also benefited from the PS3 stumbling out of the gate with a $600 price tag and so not quickly replacing it. PS5 is unlikely to trip up the same way and Sony have talked about wanting to transition players from PS4 to PS5 more quickly than in past generational shifts: https://www.gamespot.com/articles/sony-wants-a-faster-shift-from-ps4-to-ps5-than-in-/1100-6471259/



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023. (And over 130 million lifetime)

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I can see the PS4 getting to 150m, but all of the "stars" would have to line up for them.  Here are all the potential things that would have to go right for them.

1) They definitely have to cut the price, preferably to $199.

2) They have been growing the market in Central and Eastern Europe this generation which is why sales are still high in Europe compared to the rest of the world.  They can still get a few years worth of sales from this.

3) Third parties may find they can make a lot of money by doing a bunch of PS4/XB1/Switch simultaneous releases and they continue this for several more years, because Switch is in its prime.

4) Corona virus is still going to be around for at least another year.  This can end up both helping PS4 and hurting PS5.  People are more likely to want a cheap console if they have to stay at home during a recession, especially if they were on the fence about getting one to begin with.

5) We still have to see the full reveal for PS5 (and series X), but it is likely to have a slow start for a variety of factors.  The slow PS5 start is going to help PS4 sales.

Each of these factors can boost the life of PS4 by several million, and if they all kick in then 150m is not out of the question.



yo33331 said:

Stop with those emerging markets, they weren't so big deal, they just helped PS2 with around 5M units more, and besides this, I lowered the number on the PS4 from the 50M that PS2 did to 30/35M that PS4 should do and can do with the right things happening. I think 15M between what PS4 should do and PS2 did is enough of a difference for your "emerging markets" thing.

As for the catching to the DS, we will see.. it's is doubtful and hard, yes, however not impossible imo.

PS2 sold 26M in RoW. No other consoles is even really close to that number, so yeah, they were a very big deal. And the PS2 got released there for the most part only after the release of the PS3 in the industrialized countries. Same with many eastern European countries, Middle East and northern Africa (which are all counted to Europe afaik). All in all that's probably about 40M consoles that were sold in countries where PS2 sales only opened up after the PS3 got released, not just 5% as you're claiming.

Claiming they were not a big deal is like saying that the PS4 won't sell over 115M, utterly ridiculous considering the data we have.



yo33331 said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

PS2 sold 26M in RoW. No other consoles is even really close to that number, so yeah, they were a very big deal. And the PS2 got released there for the most part only after the release of the PS3 in the industrialized countries. Same with many eastern European countries, Middle East and northern Africa (which are all counted to Europe afaik). All in all that's probably about 40M consoles that were sold in countries where PS2 sales only opened up after the PS3 got released, not just 5% as you're claiming.

Claiming they were not a big deal is like saying that the PS4 won't sell over 115M, utterly ridiculous considering the data we have.

Those 26M of rest of the world include those middle east and northern africa countries that you mentioned, so no there can be 40M of the sales after 2006 only to "rest of the world" And those 26M are not all after 2006. Probably most like 15 or 20M at max. And even then PS2 still sold around 30M more after 2006 through out europe, us, and japan.

afaik Middle East is counted to Europe, though it might not have been at the time.

@bolded: PS2 died quickly in Japan, even before the PS3 got released. Just look at this graph with a 12 months moving average:

Notice how the sales started crashing down in Japan after ~60 months? At that point we are in March of 2005 and the PS3 is still 20 months away. At the point the PS3 launched the yearly moving average already dropped to 1M, and dropped to 500k a year later.

In other words, Japan only added ~2M to the PS2 sales after the PS3 launched. Similar trends in the US and Western Europe, or everywhere else where the console launched in 2000. But something big happened in 2005: The European Union got enlarged by 10 Easter European Members, and those got access to the console market along with it. Suddenly those countries could play on something more modern than some NES clone console, and the PS2 conquered those countries by storm. Same thing happened in the Middle East where they progressively opened up their markets to video games.

Those countries are also the reason why Europe is Sonyland: Nintendo and Microsoft came late to the party in these new markets for consoles and Sony had already conquered them by then. South America, especially Brazil, has a similar story to tell, though here it's mostly because only Sony bothered to build consoles there as console imports are ludicrously taxed (over 180% at some point iirc, which pretty much triples the price).

Add to this all the other emerging countries getting the console only after or around the launch of the PS3, and you can see why the PS2 had such a long shelf life, such long sales and such high sales in RoW.

Last edited by Bofferbrauer2 - on 26 May 2020

PS4 would have to sell another 44 million systems from here on out to catch up to the DS.

I just can't see that happening, not with PS5 most likely just 6 months away, the system likely near saturation point thanks to being on the market for over six and half years, (PS2 by contrast had only been out for 5 years in Japan and 4.5 in the West when the PS3 was this close) no more significant market regions left to release in, and Sony seemingly content to squeeze maximum profit out of each unit rather than cut the price aggressively.

There's no shame in selling 130-140 million and being the third highest selling system of all time, it's still a remarkable achievement.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023. (And over 130 million lifetime)

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trunkswd said:

Read and share this article here.

Switch vs 3DS in Japan – VGChartz Gap Charts – April 2020 

Switch Vs. 3DS Japan:

Gap change in latest month: 114,766 - Switch

Gap change over last 12 months: 891,717 – Switch

Total Lead: 2,202,104 – 3DS

Switch Total Sales: 13,236,818

3DS Total Sales: 15,440,922

April 2020 is the 38th month that the Nintendo Switch has been available for in Japan. During the latest month, the Switch closed the gap to the 3DS by 114,766 units. In the last 12 months, the Switch has outsold the 3DS by 891,717 units. The 3DS is currently ahead of the Switch by 2.20 million units.

The 3DS launched in February 2011 in Japan and the Nintendo Switch launched in March 2017. This does mean the normal holiday periods and the Japanese Golden Week holiday for the two consoles are off by one month.

The 38th month for the Switch is April 2020, while for the 3DS it is March 2014. The Switch has sold 13.24 million units, while the 3DS sold 15.44 million units during the same timeframe.

The 3DS has sold 24.60 million units lifetime in Japan through April 2020. The Switch is currently 9.16 million units behind the lifetime sales of the 3DS.

The story here is actually pretty similar to 3DS vs Switch worldwide.  Switch is still going to pass 3DS in the long run, but 3DS has an early lead.  But in Japan the 3DS's lead is significant enough that it may not be obvious.  The reasoning is still the same though.  3DS got a price cut in it's first year while Switch still hasn't had one.  Switch is in a much better posisiton to go the distance.



trunkswd said:

Read and share this article here.

Switch vs PS4 in the US – VGChartz Gap Charts – April 2020

Switch Vs. PS4 US:

Gap change in latest month: 796,621 – PS4

Gap change over last 12 months: 2,451,182 – Switch

Total Lead: 1,591,127 - Switch

Switch Total Sales: 19,251,426

PS4 Total Sales: 17,660,299

April 2020 is the 38th month that the Nintendo Switch has been available for. During the latest month, the gap in the US between the Nintendo Switch and PlayStation 4 grew in favor of the PlayStation 4 when you align launches. The PS4 sold 796,621 more units than the Switch in the last month. However, in the last 12 months the Switch has grown its lead by 2.45 million units. The Switch currently leads by 1.59 million units.

The PlayStation 4 launched in the US on November 15, 2013, while the Nintendo Switch launched on March 3, 2017. Therefore, the holiday periods for the two consoles do not lineup, which is why there are big increases and decreases.

The 38th month on sale for the Nintendo Switch is April 2020, while for the PlayStation 4 it is December 2016. The Switch has sold 19.25 million units, while the PlayStation 4 sold 17.66 million units during the same timeframe.

The PlayStation 4 has been available for 78 months in the US and has sold 33.11 million units in the country. The Nintendo Switch is currently 13.86 million units behind the lifetime sales of the PlayStation 4.

Switch has this in the bag I reckon. It will a few years, but eventually Switch will overtake PS4's total and never look back.

Even with an extra holiday season in PS4's favour, it's still tracking ahead.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023. (And over 130 million lifetime)

trunkswd said:

Read and share this article here

PS4 vs Wii in the US – VGChartz Gap Charts – April 2020

PlayStation 4 Vs. Wii US:

Gap change in latest month: 333,281 – PS4

Gap change over last 12 months: 2,270,981 – PS4

Total Lead: 7,887,078 – Wii

PlayStation 4 Total Sales: 33,113,899

Wii Total Sales: 41,000,977

April 2020 is the 78th month that the PlayStation 4 has been available for in the US. During the latest month, the gap grew in favor of the PlayStation 4 when compared with the Nintendo Wii during the same timeframe. The PlayStation 4 has caught up to the Wii by 333,281 units and in the last 12 months outsold the Wii by 2.27 million units. The Wii currently leads by 7.89 million units.

Both consoles launched in November in the US. The Wii launched in November 2006, while the PlayStation 4 launched in November 2013. This does mean the holidays for the two consoles do lineup.

The 78th months for the PlayStation 4 is April 2020, while for the Wii it is April 2013. The PlayStation 4 has sold 33.11 million units, while the Wii sold 41.00 million units during the same timeframe.

The Wii sold units 41.70 million lifetime in the US, therefore the PlayStation 4 needs to sell another 8.59 million units to catch up to the lifetime sales of the Wii.

Not much to add since last month really; it'll be close, but Wii will most likely come out ahead as PS4 is about to be replaced.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023. (And over 130 million lifetime)

yo33331 said:

With replacing the old console the sales don't magically stop.
8M is not impossible to be made for another 5 years (which will assumabely be the left life of PS4 on the market).
So it is more 50/50 situation, however with this year moderate sales, and at least 1 more price cut on the system I can see PS4 come just barely above the wii total US sales.

It's certainly possible, I just don't think it's the most likely outcome as Sony don't seem to be much interested in aggressively reducing PS4's price, and such cuts tend to make a bigger difference midway through a console's life rather than near the end of it.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023. (And over 130 million lifetime)

trunkswd said:

Read and share this article here.

Switch vs 3DS and Wii U in the US – VGChartz Gap Charts – April 2020

Switch Vs. 3DS and Wii U USA:

Gap change in latest month: 146,072 – Switch

Gap change over last 12 months: 2,369,851 - Switch

Total Lead: 2,006,350 - Switch

Switch Total Sales: 19,251,426

3DS and Wii U Total Sales: 17,245,076

April 2020 is the 38th month that the Nintendo Switch has been available for in the US. During the latest month, the gap grew in favor of the Switch when compared to the combined sales of the 3DS and Wii U during the same timeframe by 146,072 units. In the last 12 months the gap has grown in favor of the Switch by 2.37 million units. The Switch is currently ahead of the 3DS and Wii U by 2.01 million units.

The 3DS launched in March 2011 in the US and the Wii U launched in November 2012, while the Nintendo Switch launched in March 2017. The holiday periods between the Switch and 3DS lineup, however, the Wii U holiday is offset from the Switch.

The 38th month for the Nintendo Switch is April 2020, for the Nintendo 3DS it is April 2014 and for the Wii U it is December 2015. The Switch has sold 19.25 million units, while the 3DS and Wii U have sold 17.25 million units during the same timeframe. The 3DS and Wii U did not reach current Switch sales until month 46.

The 3DS and Wii U have sold a combined 28.85 million units in the US. The Switch is currently 9.60 million units behind. The Wii U has been off the market for a few years, while the 3DS is still on the market. However, 3DS sales have shrunk considerably and is selling well under 10,000 units per week.

Sayonara suckers; Switch is going to smash the benchmark many set for it by arguing that as a successor to both platforms it had to outsell them combined to succeed.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023. (And over 130 million lifetime)