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Forums - Sales Discussion - VGChartz Gap Charts April 2020 Discussion Thread

trunkswd said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

PS4+XB1 is going to be ahead at the end.  PS3+X360 actually lost customers to the Wii, especially during the first 4 years.  This is easy to see on the first chart where the peak of the gap is at month 49, which was also Wii's last really good month.  About a year later PS3+X360 starts to close the gap on current gen consoles.  The Wii gamers started to transition over, but not all of them made the transition.  So PS3+X360 ended up behind PS2+XB.  For the same reason I think PS3+X360 will also be behind PS4+XB1.

The Xbox 360 had 8 years on the market before the Xbox One launched and PS3 had 7 years before PS4 launched. Looks like PS4 and Xbox One will have 7 years to themselves before their successors launch this holiday season. I do think PS4 and Xbox One will beat out PS3 and Xbox 360 in the end. But not by a lot. Less than 5 million. 

You may be right about less than 5 million, especially if PS4 never gets a price cut.  They can definitely lose customers by pricing them out of the market.  

If PS4 gets down to at least $269, like the PS3, then I think there will be at least a 10 million difference which is similar to the loss going from Generation 6 to 7.  Those 10 million were lost to the Wii, but that market came back to Sony/Microsoft in Generation 8.  Instead they might just lose people who can't afford the current price.



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The_Liquid_Laser said:
trunkswd said:

The Xbox 360 had 8 years on the market before the Xbox One launched and PS3 had 7 years before PS4 launched. Looks like PS4 and Xbox One will have 7 years to themselves before their successors launch this holiday season. I do think PS4 and Xbox One will beat out PS3 and Xbox 360 in the end. But not by a lot. Less than 5 million. 

You may be right about less than 5 million, especially if PS4 never gets a price cut.  They can definitely lose customers by pricing them out of the market.  

If PS4 gets down to at least $269, like the PS3, then I think there will be at least a 10 million difference which is similar to the loss going from Generation 6 to 7.  Those 10 million were lost to the Wii, but that market came back to Sony/Microsoft in Generation 8.  Instead they might just lose people who can't afford the current price.

Sony would be smart to drop the price soon to $249 of the PS4 to help keep sales higher for a little longer. A PS4 price drop won't eat into PS5 sales. PS5 will be sold out at launch and through 2020. The majority of people who plan to buy a PS5 at or near launch have already owned a PS4 for many years.



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YoutubeFollow me on Twitter @TrunksWD.

Writer of the Gap Charts | Weekly Hardware Breakdown Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

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Switch vs Wii – VGChartz Gap Charts – April 2020

Switch Vs. Wii Global:

Gap change in latest month: 6,183,651 - Wii

Gap change over last 12 months: 507,499 - Switch

Total Lead: 9,563,714 - Wii

Switch Total Sales: 55,084,445

Wii Total Sales: 64,648,159

April 2020 is the 38th month that the Nintendo Switch has been available for. During the latest month, the Wii grew its lead over the Switch by 6.18 million units when you align the launches of the two consoles. In the last 12 months the Switch has outsold the Wii by just 507,499 units. The Wii is currently ahead of the Switch by 9.56 million units.

The Wii launched in November 2006, while the Nintendo Switch launched in March 2017. Therefore the holiday periods for the two consoles don’t lineup, which is why there are big increases and decreases. The Switch has sold 55.08 million units, while the Wii sold 64.65 million units during the same timeframe.

The 38th month for the Nintendo Switch is April 2020 and for the Wii it is December 2009.

The Wii sold 101.63 million units worldwide during its lifetime. The Switch needs to sell another 46.55 million units to outsell the Wii.



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YoutubeFollow me on Twitter @TrunksWD.

Writer of the Gap Charts | Weekly Hardware Breakdown Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

Still two years more until Switch pulls away from the Wii for good, because contrary to popular belief, the Wii's strong sales weren't shortlived. 93m in 62 months, that means Switch needs to sell 38m in the next 24 months to match that; that's 19m per year.

Crossover point is bound to occur in month 58, then month 62 will be the last gasp of the Wii where it will still fall short of crossing back above Switch. Month 63 onwards will be smooth sailing for Switch.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

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RolStoppable said:
Still two years more until Switch pulls away from the Wii for good, because contrary to popular belief, the Wii's strong sales weren't shortlived. 93m in 62 months, that means Switch needs to sell 38m in the next 24 months to match that; that's 19m per year.

Crossover point is bound to occur in month 58, then month 62 will be the last gasp of the Wii where it will still fall short of crossing back above Switch. Month 63 onwards will be smooth sailing for Switch.

Switch has been a great rebound for Nintendo. Talk about a change in sales from one console to the next. GameCube to Wii to Wii U to Switch. 

I do like the new third graph that shows the lifetime sales for the Wii. It gives people an idea how well the Switch needs to sell to keep up or pass the Switch. 



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YoutubeFollow me on Twitter @TrunksWD.

Writer of the Gap Charts | Weekly Hardware Breakdown Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

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Still confident Switch will outsell the Wii.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

curl-6 said:
Still confident Switch will outsell the Wii.

Looking more likely as long as Nintendo continues to release games for the console. Paper Mario being announced so soon to release, bodes well for at least this holiday season when it comes to bigger releases. 



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YoutubeFollow me on Twitter @TrunksWD.

Writer of the Gap Charts | Weekly Hardware Breakdown Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

trunkswd said:
curl-6 said:
Still confident Switch will outsell the Wii.

Looking more likely as long as Nintendo continues to release games for the console. Paper Mario being announced so soon to release, bodes well for at least this holiday season when it comes to bigger releases. 

Yeah I was starting to get worried they were repeating Wii's mistake of jumping ship too early after they had nothing scheduled beyond this month, but Paper Mario being announced so close to release is a reassuring sign they've still got stuff up their sleeve.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

curl-6 said:
trunkswd said:

Looking more likely as long as Nintendo continues to release games for the console. Paper Mario being announced so soon to release, bodes well for at least this holiday season when it comes to bigger releases. 

Yeah I was starting to get worried they were repeating Wii's mistake of jumping ship too early after they had nothing scheduled beyond this month, but Paper Mario being announced so close to release is a reassuring sign they've still got stuff up their sleeve.

I'd rather they announce games further out. Not years and years, but I'd like to know what the big games for this holiday season are. Though, other than Halo Infinite, we don't really know the big games from Sony or Microsoft for this holiday season either. 



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YoutubeFollow me on Twitter @TrunksWD.

Writer of the Gap Charts | Weekly Hardware Breakdown Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

trunkswd said:
curl-6 said:

Yeah I was starting to get worried they were repeating Wii's mistake of jumping ship too early after they had nothing scheduled beyond this month, but Paper Mario being announced so close to release is a reassuring sign they've still got stuff up their sleeve.

I'd rather they announce games further out. Not years and years, but I'd like to know what the big games for this holiday season are. Though, other than Halo Infinite, we don't really know the big games from Sony or Microsoft for this holiday season either. 

Yeah, personally I think games should be announced when they are 6-18 months off. Anything less than 6 leaves their future schedule looking too empty, any more than 18 is painful to wait for. (Granted I realize the pandemic makes it hard to date things far off atm)



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.