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Forums - Sales Discussion - VGChartz Gap Charts April 2020 Discussion Thread

trunkswd said:
curl-6 said:

Fucking hell, so by the end of 2020 Switch could be 7 million or more ahead of PS4. Crikey.

We do know the Switch in the US has set records in March AND April. Depending on stock a new record could be set for May as well. What we need to know for how well the Switch will sell this holiday is what are the deals and what are the new must have games. 

Well, if they hit their forecast of 19 million, that'd probably be around 16 million by the end of the year, so close to 72 million total. So more than 8 million ahead of PS4 is that scenario, unless delays of key software cause hardware sales to slump.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023. (And over 130 million lifetime)

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trunkswd said:
curl-6 said:

Well, if they hit their forecast of 19 million, that'd probably be around 16 million by the end of the year, so close to 72 million total. So more than 8 million ahead of PS4 is that scenario, unless delays of key software cause hardware sales to slump.

With how well the Switch is selling there is a high chance of Nintendo beating their forecast. Actually, there was a report Nintendo is looking to up there production of the Switch by 10% this fiscal year, compared to 2019. I can see them shipping 22 million Switch consoles this year. 

That's certainly possible, but IMO only if the pandemic doesn't delay their big new releases for the second half into the next FY.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023. (And over 130 million lifetime)

trunkswd said:

Read and share this article here

Switch vs DS – VGChartz Gap Charts – April 2020

Switch Vs. DS Global:

Gap change in latest month: 6,374,019 - DS

Gap change over last 12 months: 7,751,373 - DS

Total Lead: 8,840,825 - DS

Switch Total Sales: 55,084,445

DS Total Sales: 63,925,270

April 2020 is the 38th month that the Nintendo Switch has been available for. During the latest month, the gap grew in favor of the DS by 6.37 million units when compared to the Switch during the same timeframe. In the last 12 months the DS has outsold the Switch by 7.75 million units. The DS is ahead of the Switch by 8.84 million units.

The DS launched in November 2004 in North America, December 2004 in Japan, and March 2005 in Europe, while the Nintendo Switch launched worldwide in March 2017. Therefore, the holiday periods for the two consoles do not lineup, which is why there are big increases and decreases.

The 38th month on sale for the Nintendo Switch is March 2020, while for the DS it is December 2007. The Switch has sold 55.08 million units, while the DS sold 63.93 million units during the same timeframe.

The Nintendo DS sold 154.02 million units lifetime. The Nintendo Switch is currently 98.94 million units behind the lifetime sales of the DS.

I'd like to see an update of this chart after the adjustments if you don't mind, you're doing an incredible work!



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trunkswd said:

Read and share this article here.

Switch vs 3DS and Wii U – VGChartz Gap Charts – April 2020

Switch Vs. 3DS and Wii U Global:

Gap change in latest month: 159,135 - Switch

Gap change over last 12 months: 5,811,459 – Switch

Total Lead: 1,731,268 - Switch

Switch Total Sales: 55,757,445

3DS and Wii U Total Sales: 54,026,177

April 2020 is the 38th month that the Nintendo Switch has been available for. During the latest month, the gap grew in favor of the Switch by 159,135 units when compared to the combined sales of the 3DS and Wii U during the same timeframe. In the last 12 months the gap has grown in favor of the Switch by 5.81 million units. The Switch leads by 1.73 million units.

The 3DS launched in February 2011 (however, 3DS sales have been aligned to March 2011, since it only launched at the end of February in Japan), the Wii U launched in November 2012, and the Nintendo Switch launched worldwide in March 2017. The holiday periods between the Switch and 3DS lineup, however, the Wii U holiday is offset from the Switch.

The 38th month for the Nintendo Switch is April 2020, for the Nintendo 3DS it is April 2014 and for the Wii U it is December 2015. The Switch has sold 55.76 million units, while the 3DS and Wii U have sold 54.03 million units during the same timeframe.

The 3DS and Wii U have sold 88.82 million units lifetime through March 2020. The Switch is 33.06 million units behind the 3DS and Wii U. The Wii U has been off the market for a few years, while the 3DS is still on the market. However, 3DS sales have shrunk considerably and is selling less than 10,000 units per week.

Switch continues to prove itself less frontloaded than its predecessors. Gonna breeze passed their combined lifetime sales with ease, almost certainly by the end of next year.

Wii U sales from here on out are almost zero, leaving 3DS standing alone and passed its peak.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023. (And over 130 million lifetime)

trunkswd said:
curl-6 said:

Switch continues to prove itself less frontloaded than its predecessors. Gonna breeze passed their combined lifetime sales with ease, almost certainly by the end of next year.

Wii U sales from here on out are almost zero, leaving 3DS standing alone and passed its peak.

The third graph really shows the slowing of the sales for the 3DS and Wii U.

Exactly, while Switch is trending ever upwards. With demand still so high it's facing shortages all over the globe, Nintendo moving to boost production this year, and plenty of room for future price cuts, revisions, and bundles, there's no sign of it flattening out any time soon either.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023. (And over 130 million lifetime)

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trunkswd said:
curl-6 said:

Exactly, while Switch is trending ever upwards. With demand still so high it's facing shortages all over the globe, Nintendo moving to boost production this year, and plenty of room for future price cuts, revisions, and bundles, there's no sign of it flattening out any time soon either.

Now what kind of legs will the Switch have? 100 million? 125 million? 150 million? 

The way I see it, 100 million is a given, 125 million is unlikely, 150 million highly unlikely.

110 million or so sounds about right.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023. (And over 130 million lifetime)

trunkswd said:
curl-6 said:

The way I see it, 100 million is a given, 125 million is unlikely, 150 million highly unlikely.

110 million or so sounds about right.

You never know. Nothing is out of the question right now. I do agree around 110 million is probably the most likely outcome for the Switch. 

Hence why I didn't say out of the question, just unlikely. ;)

It'll still outsell Wii and PS1 and wind up the #5 best selling system of all time, by my estimates.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023. (And over 130 million lifetime)

trunkswd said:
curl-6 said:

Hence why I didn't say out of the question, just unlikely. ;)

It'll still outsell Wii and PS1 and wind up the #5 best selling system of all time, by my estimates.

So you don't see it outselling the PS4? 

No. While it's ahead for now I think PS4 will have better legs and thus cruise to a higher final total.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023. (And over 130 million lifetime)

trunkswd said:
curl-6 said:

No. While it's ahead for now I think PS4 will have better legs and thus cruise to a higher final total.

It all depends on Nintendo. The GameBoy and DS had good legs. And Nintendo is only developing for one platform now, instead of two. While there is no new Pokemon game this year, I'd expect one to come out in holiday 2021. Probably, a remake of an older title or a Sword and Shield 2. 

It's not that I expect Switch to have bad legs, just not quite as long as PS4's. We'll see.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023. (And over 130 million lifetime)

No way PS4 catches the DS.

As Rol already covered, it won't get the late life boost of releasing in developing markets that the PS2 got as its already available there, nor will it drop to as low a price as PS2 did. If Sony are still sticking to $300 this late in the game, there's no way they'll go below $200 before discontinuation.

PS4 will stop somewhere between 130 and 140 million, leaving DS with at least a 15 million lead when all's said and done.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023. (And over 130 million lifetime)