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Forums - Sales Discussion - Animal Crossing: New Horizons 5 Million Digital in March - Single Month Record for any game

Nautilus said:
src said:
SuperData is not reliable at all and anyone folowing sales data for videogames knows 5 million is highly unlikely to be the all time record.

COD sells like 6-8 million in the US alone.

This basically.

No one has acess to Nintendo digital sales, not even NPD tries to do an estimate.Any company saying that they have accurate estimations are either wrong or simply delusional.

This 100%! However, it doesn't stop this website from continuing to push it's narrative and push this as an article on the front page as if reliable. Any thing for a click these days..



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SpokenTruth said:
Nautilus said:

Completely unreliable.They have been wrong numerous times in the past.The biggest example I can think of right now is the Switch first year sales, where they revised their numbers like three times and still got it very wrong at the end.

Revised them 3 times after the fact or during the course of on-going sales of the year?

You do recognize the difference, don't you?

Superdata claims that Nintendo sold 2.4 million units in the first month Switch launched.

Nintendo official sales puts that number at 2.74 million.

That's just one example.And yeah, the example above was after march was done.Pretty sure after I dig up more examples, there will be plenty of them

Sources:

https://venturebeat.com/2017/04/14/superdata-nintendo-sells-2-4-million-switch-consoles-worldwide-in-first-month/

http://gamesmea.com/nintendo-switch-sells-2-74-million-units-first-month/

Dont get me wrong, AC digital sales will be bonkers, but SuperData will never be accurate, and will always miss their number, either be lowballing it or overestimating it.



My (locked) thread about how difficulty should be a decision for the developers, not the gamers.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=241866&page=1

SpokenTruth said:
Nautilus said:

Superdata claims that Nintendo sold 2.4 million units in the first month Switch launched.

Nintendo official sales puts that number at 2.74 million.

That's just one example.And yeah, the example above was after march was done.Pretty sure after I dig up more examples, there will be plenty of them

Sources:

https://venturebeat.com/2017/04/14/superdata-nintendo-sells-2-4-million-switch-consoles-worldwide-in-first-month/

http://gamesmea.com/nintendo-switch-sells-2-74-million-units-first-month/

Dont get me wrong, AC digital sales will be bonkers, but SuperData will never be accurate, and will always miss their number, either be lowballing it or overestimating it.

2.4 million vs 2.74 million.  Seriously?  That's the gulf you're griping about?  That's just 12% short.  That's the equivalent of them saying AC:NH sold 5 million digitally when the real figure is 5.6 million. 

But go ahead and gripe about a free service that was 12% short. And please do tell us about a better free services so we can stop giving SuperData unnecessary attention and focus on your suggestion instead.

Any company doing estimations, especially for after the facts numbers, a 12% difference is huge.But again, as I said before, this is just one example of many.That's why NPD is so respected, because their estimations are extremely accurate.If they were 5% off or anything like that, companies would stop paying them, because innacurate data is useless.

Took this from resetera(they have used official sources):

"Here's one reason I have a hard time believing any of their numbers: according to them during Q3 (July-September) 2018 PlayStation Now brought in $143mil (link https://www.gamesindustry.biz/artic...brought-in-usd143-million-last-quarter-report), or on average $47.6mil a month. Back then the most expensive PlayStation Now subscription was $20/month, meaning that even if everyone was using that subscription (obviously unlikely, many people will sign up for 3 months or a full year because that's way cheaper on a monthly basis) Now would have had at least about 2.38mil paying subscribers according to them. Then for the fiscal year ending March 31 2019 Sony revealed that PlayStation Now had about 700k subscribers, meaning Superdata overestimated the amount of subs Now by over 200%. I'm sorry, but that's laughable."

There is also the Epic Games estimation about fortnite revenue, which Epic just outright said they were wrong:

https://www.gamepressure.com/newsroom/epic-games-on-fortnites-revenue-drops-the-data-is-inaccurate/zb18a1

Again, there are more examples of after the fact estimations that were completely wrong, but Im not going to do your job for you.

Plus their own estimations(the before the fact ones) are simply stupid too.Remember them predicting that the Siwtch would sell only 5 millions in 2017 back in march of that year.Good times.

Edit: Oh, they are also claiming that Doom Eternal digital sales were 3 million units in March.That's supposidelly without counting physical sales.Doom Eternal landed on number 6 on NPD charts in march.No way in fucking hell it did that well digitally while physically it did meh.If that were true, Bethesda wouldn't stop talking about that.Just another example of Superdata bullshit numbers.

Last edited by Nautilus - on 23 April 2020

My (locked) thread about how difficulty should be a decision for the developers, not the gamers.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=241866&page=1

Metallox said:
src said:
SuperData is not reliable at all and anyone folowing sales data for videogames knows 5 million is highly unlikely to be the all time record.

COD sells like 6-8 million in the US alone.

Not to discredit you entirely but you're being very vague with your statements. You say 5 million is highly unlikely but then claim Call of Duty sells better, then you throw an approximate estimate of 6-8 million, which isn't clear at all, and then you don't cite in which period does Call of Duty make those numbers. 

newwil7l said:
src said:
SuperData is not reliable at all and anyone folowing sales data for videogames knows 5 million is highly unlikely to be the all time record.

COD sells like 6-8 million in the US alone.

Yeah and that 6-8 million includes digital. Sounds like you are brushing off the data because you don't like the results of a life sim beating massive multiplats.

SpokenTruth said:
src said:
SuperData is not reliable at all and anyone folowing sales data for videogames knows 5 million is highly unlikely to be the all time record.

COD sells like 6-8 million in the US alone.

Single month.  Not overall.

You guys really don't know do you?

COD sels 6-8 million in one month (actually a few weeks) in US alone lmao

Thinking AC comes even close to COD is laughable.

https://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2012-12-07-halo-4-sold-3-2m-in-us-during-november

7.5 million opening month for BO2 in US alone. This does not include digital, its only recently NPD had access to digital.

COD MW already holds the best digital opening on PS4 and with Activision.

So yeah, COD in US alone > AC WW



src said:
Metallox said:

Not to discredit you entirely but you're being very vague with your statements. You say 5 million is highly unlikely but then claim Call of Duty sells better, then you throw an approximate estimate of 6-8 million, which isn't clear at all, and then you don't cite in which period does Call of Duty make those numbers. 

newwil7l said:

Yeah and that 6-8 million includes digital. Sounds like you are brushing off the data because you don't like the results of a life sim beating massive multiplats.

SpokenTruth said:

Single month.  Not overall.

You guys really don't know do you?

COD sels 6-8 million in one month (actually a few weeks) in US alone lmao

Thinking AC comes even close to COD is laughable.

https://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2012-12-07-halo-4-sold-3-2m-in-us-during-november

7.5 million opening month for BO2 in US alone. This does not include digital, its only recently NPD had access to digital.

COD MW already holds the best digital opening on PS4 and with Activision.

So yeah, COD in US alone > AC WW

Your link doesn't contradict SuperData's claim. Also, how big is Modern Warfare's digital opening? It's nice to hear is the biggest so far on PS4 and for Activision, but that tells nothing. 

I don't doubt there's a bigger opening than New Horizon's, but you personally haven't proved it. 



My bet with The_Liquid_Laser: I think the Switch won't surpass the PS2 as the best selling system of all time. If it does, I'll play a game of a list that The_Liquid_Laser will provide, I will have to play it for 50 hours or complete it, whatever comes first. 

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src said:

You guys really don't know do you?

COD sels 6-8 million in one month (actually a few weeks) in US alone lmao

Thinking AC comes even close to COD is laughable.

https://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2012-12-07-halo-4-sold-3-2m-in-us-during-november

7.5 million opening month for BO2 in US alone. This does not include digital, its only recently NPD had access to digital.

COD MW already holds the best digital opening on PS4 and with Activision.

So yeah, COD in US alone > AC WW

How did you get this far in the thread without understanding the title? According to Superdata, Animal Crossing sold 5 million in digital copies alone. Add in what it sold physically, and it well exceeds your US CoD numbers. It might even exceed CoD's worldwide numbers, given what Superdata reported last year about MW:

https://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2019-11-25-call-of-duty-modern-warfare-sold-4-75m-digital-units-in-its-launch-month

MW sold 4.75 million versus AC's 5 million, and MW launched on consoles with much higher digital attach rates.



Blood_Tears said:
Nautilus said:

This basically.

No one has acess to Nintendo digital sales, not even NPD tries to do an estimate.Any company saying that they have accurate estimations are either wrong or simply delusional.

This 100%! However, it doesn't stop this website from continuing to push it's narrative and push this as an article on the front page as if reliable. Any thing for a click these days..

You dont like Animal Crossing beating COD? 



Pocky Lover Boy! 

SpokenTruth said:
src said:

You guys really don't know do you?

COD sels 6-8 million in one month (actually a few weeks) in US alone lmao

Thinking AC comes even close to COD is laughable.

https://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2012-12-07-halo-4-sold-3-2m-in-us-during-november

7.5 million opening month for BO2 in US alone. This does not include digital, its only recently NPD had access to digital.

COD MW already holds the best digital opening on PS4 and with Activision.

So yeah, COD in US alone > AC WW

Digital only, SRC, Digital only. 

Nautilus said:

Any company doing estimations, especially for after the facts numbers, a 12% difference is huge.But again, as I said before, this is just one example of many.That's why NPD is so respected, because their estimations are extremely accurate.If they were 5% off or anything like that, companies would stop paying them, because innacurate data is useless.

Took this from resetera(they have used official sources):

"Here's one reason I have a hard time believing any of their numbers: according to them during Q3 (July-September) 2018 PlayStation Now brought in $143mil (link https://www.gamesindustry.biz/artic...brought-in-usd143-million-last-quarter-report), or on average $47.6mil a month. Back then the most expensive PlayStation Now subscription was $20/month, meaning that even if everyone was using that subscription (obviously unlikely, many people will sign up for 3 months or a full year because that's way cheaper on a monthly basis) Now would have had at least about 2.38mil paying subscribers according to them. Then for the fiscal year ending March 31 2019 Sony revealed that PlayStation Now had about 700k subscribers, meaning Superdata overestimated the amount of subs Now by over 200%. I'm sorry, but that's laughable."

There is also the Epic Games estimation about fortnite revenue, which Epic just outright said they were wrong:

https://www.gamepressure.com/newsroom/epic-games-on-fortnites-revenue-drops-the-data-is-inaccurate/zb18a1

Again, there are more examples of after the fact estimations that were completely wrong, but Im not going to do your job for you.

Plus their own estimations(the before the fact ones) are simply stupid too.Remember them predicting that the Siwtch would sell only 5 millions in 2017 back in march of that year.Good times.

Edit: Oh, they are also claiming that Doom Eternal digital sales were 3 million units in March.That's supposidelly without counting physical sales.Doom Eternal landed on number 6 on NPD charts in march.No way in fucking hell it did that well digitally while physically it did meh.If that were true, Bethesda wouldn't stop talking about that.Just another example of Superdata bullshit numbers.


NPD: They have been 12% off many times. That's the nature of their industry.  It also depends on volume of market polling, market polling rate, on-going or post, etc...   But yes, they've been off by 12% many times.

PSNow: The primary question is how was their figure calculated?  It is at simple as avg sub cost x number of subs?  Or does it count other revenue from within the service?  Do you know?  I don't.  Nobody else I've researched seems to either.  I do know that Sony combines Now with PS Plus, PS Video, PS Music, PS Vue and advertising.  And across those segments Sony officially announced $740 million in revenue for Q3 2018.  Unfortunately, I've not found a breakdown for each of that $740 million. If that figure includes the advertising segment (which it should for anything advertised on PS Now) and in-game purchases on PS Now games, then it would be wrong of us to only count avg sub cost x number of subs.

Fortnite: Funny how Epic Games cited that very same report a month earlier.  Also funny how they never provided their own figures to counter.  Sounds to me like investor relations damage control.

Switch: For one, they were definitely wrong.  But so were tons of others in the industry.  Second, that's a projection, not a report after the fact.  They didn't say on Jan 1, 2018 that Switch sold 5 million in all of 2017.  Finally, they partly based the 5 million from statements from GameStop who said they were only getting a limited number of Switch consoles for sale.  Why would you then project high sales of the biggest games retailer is saying they won't have many to sell?

Doom Eternal: We have no idea what kind of effect the pandemic is having on digital and physical sales right now. Doom 2016 sold 1 million without a stay-at-home pandemic going on.  And Doom Eternal has more hype.


Don't get me wrong.  I'm not saying they are absolutely accurate.  Digital game reports are damn hard to do to begin with bad both Nintendo and Bethesda do not share internal digital sales data.  What I am saying is that they are the best we have and until official, contrary comes out, there is not reason to just shit all over the report.

Please provide me a source for when NPD was off 12% on any of their data, because I dont remember.

Im just saying that SuperData has a gigantic history of being wrong.Animal Crossing will be huge in terms of sales.Honestly I fully expect it to cross 10 million units sold when Nintendo announces it at the investor meeting, but 5 million just digitally is way too much, regardless of the existing chaos out there(especially since most people that bought day one had a pre order ready and I doubt that was affected, not to mention that if Japan sales are anything to go by, physical sales are doing just fine).

Give ourselves 2 more weeks, and we will have the official numbers.And Im pretty sure Superdata will be wrong, one way or another.



My (locked) thread about how difficulty should be a decision for the developers, not the gamers.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=241866&page=1

I had no intention of buying it, at least not right away. Once I had to work from home, I bought it digitally day one...on a whim, and have played it way more than I would have guessed.



ACNH FTW!