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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Does Anybody Believe the NSW can sell around 150mil lifetime?

 

Does NSW have a Chance at 150mil Lifetime?

Yes 39 28.89%
 
130-140mil max 7 5.19%
 
120mil around 29 21.48%
 
110mil around 38 28.15%
 
100mil cuz I’m pessimistic 22 16.30%
 
Total:135
globalisateur said:
No. It won't even reach 100 million.

That comment is so 2017!



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Impossible, there will be a switch 2 way before that.



Slownenberg said:

No. Around 110 million or 120 million is most likely. 0% chance of 150 million.

Lol. 4 years later and we were all so wrong.

We were either all agreeing that there was no chance it reaches 150M (Many of our reasoning being the Switch won't have that same mass appeal to DS/PS2 did due to smartphones taking over)

While others said the only way it could be even remotely possible is if Nintendo makes the Switch dirt cheap and releases a ton of new models.

Looking back now 4.5 years later the Switch is going to hit 150M without a single price cut, which is pretty insane and never in our wildest theories did we think it was possible.



tbone51 said:
JWeinCom said:

Assuming it has a traditional console life cycle, no chance.  Unless Nintendo just stops doing generations and just does continuous incremental upgrades, and even then it's iffy.

Im asking cuz I don’t think it will have the typical life cycle. I think it’ll have a healthy 8year cycle with year soft drops after 2021 

no way did you just perfectly predict this.

Last edited by firebush03 - on 23 September 2024

Some of these comments aged like sour milk.



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This is a very fun read in 2024.
Around 3/4 of voters said it wouldn't reach 150m, with the most popular option being 110m, lmao



This thread is great because of how recent it is.  We were watching Switches fly off the shelves due to COVID, but I think the reasoning of most posters at the time is that COVID would have a small sales blip with Switch sales returning to 2019 levels shortly thereafter.

In reality Switch was still on an upward trajectory, and COVID gave it an even bigger boost while on that upward trajectory.



I voted yes but my reasoning was a bit off.

UnderwaterFunktown said:

It would need one or more great new models, multiple price cuts (down to $200 for the base model at some point) and 7-8 years before its replacement at minimum.
Hitting a low enough pricepoint is the thing that seems least likely to me, because its just not necesarrily in Nintendo's interest to cut the price and keep strongly pushing the hardware by the time its successor is around the corner.
Basicly I don't think its impossible, but currently I don't see it as likely. I do expect it to land closer to 150 mil than 100 mil though (so basicly above 125).

It didn't get any great new models (calling OLED great is a stretch) or any price cuts (though I kinda expected that), but it did however get an 8 year lifespan from how things are looking right now.

I don't blame anybody for not predicting just how bonkers 2020 (and 2021) would be back in april though, we had probably only just gotten the crazy Animal Crossing march numbers.



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