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Forums - Sales Discussion - March NPD 2020 Thread: Switch > 1 million

Bofferbrauer2 on 21 April 2020
src said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

Or the "Nintendo always peaks early" myth

Not a myth at all. Nintendo systems have so many cases of sharp drop off.

Many cases =/= always



The Nintendo eShop rating Thread: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=237454 List as Google Doc:  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aW2hXQT1TheElVS7z-F3pP-7nbqdrDqWNTxl6JoJWBY/edit?usp=sharing

The Steam/GOG key gifting thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/242024/the-steamgog-key-gifting-thread/1/ 

Free Pc Games thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/248138/free-pc-games/1/

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Oneeee-Chan!!! on 21 April 2020
src said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

Or the "Nintendo always peaks early" myth

Not a myth at all. Nintendo systems have so many cases of sharp drop off.

Don't really expect it to happen to the switch.



jenpol on 21 April 2020
Shadow1980 said: 

It does help that this was a 5-week sales period, and during tax season to boot. Still, that's one hell of an accomplishment. It's only the third time a system averaged over 200k units per week in a single non-holiday month (the aforementioned April 2009 for the DS and Oct. 2008 for the Wii being the others). And while I haven't crunched the numbers yet, it has to be one of the largest year-over-year and month-over-month increases to date (the latter including only non-holiday months), which is saying something considering its long-term non-holiday baseline, which had never gotten to Wii or DS levels in the U.S. So, this probably makes this accomplishment all the more impressive. However, I still remain somewhat bearish on Switch in the long-term, though my assessment could change depending on how sales over the next year look, especially once the pandemic is behind us.

What do you mean by bearish in the long run?  

I'm just intrigued  



jenpol on 21 April 2020

Thanks 

I know the nomenclature. I was just wondering what was your bearish case. (Selling a little less than the PS4, if I follow) 

It's still a good number for the console (100 millions). 

Before the covid, I felt that Nintendo would cut short the life of the switch (with a 2022 release for the next hardware). But now, I believe that they'll stretch the switch to the limit. Even the PS5 and the XSX launch may struggle because of the virus/economy.



src on 21 April 2020

Covid has also given 7 year old systems a 20%+ boost. No doubt its had a bigger effect on the newer SW.



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newwil7l on 21 April 2020

Hasn't it been proven that recessions don't really impact entertainment sectors like gaming or movies?

2008-2010 was one of the strongest periods for console gaming.

XSX and PS5 will be fine, same with the Switch going forward. Although 2020 really does feel like the peak year. Hard to follow up to Animal Crossing, unless they have a Mario Kart 9 up their sleeves.



TheBraveGallade on 21 April 2020
Shadow1980 said:
jenpol said:

What do you mean by bearish in the long run?  

I'm just intrigued  

It's a term originating in stock market lingo. It basically means I'm not expecting significant future growth, and that we're likely at the system's peak. If someone was being bullish on the system, it would mean they're expecting continued growth and therefore don't think the system has peaked yet. Some people think that the Switch will potentially sell as much as the PS2 or DS globally. I doubt it will sell much more than the PS4 globally.

Launch aligned its surprizingly keeping pace with the DS, so Id say unless they cut it early, selling more then the wii is pretty much set, and by extention, the ps4 which will end up just abouve the wii.

i currently estimate it ending up on the 130milion mark, in the middle of wii and ds/ps2 (its honestly up to debate which sold more, its like a sub 1mil difference out of 154 mil)



animegaming on 22 April 2020
newwil7l said:
Hasn't it been proven that recessions don't really impact entertainment sectors like gaming or movies?

2008-2010 was one of the strongest periods for console gaming.

XSX and PS5 will be fine, same with the Switch going forward. Although 2020 really does feel like the peak year. Hard to follow up to Animal Crossing, unless they have a Mario Kart 9 up their sleeves.

Yup a good example is Avatar releasing in late 2009 and going on to become the highest grossing movie until the release Avengers Endgame and The Dark Knight releasing in 2008 manage to make a billion back when that is pretty rare to happen in the Box office. 



TruckOSaurus on 22 April 2020
animegaming said:
newwil7l said:
Hasn't it been proven that recessions don't really impact entertainment sectors like gaming or movies?

2008-2010 was one of the strongest periods for console gaming.

XSX and PS5 will be fine, same with the Switch going forward. Although 2020 really does feel like the peak year. Hard to follow up to Animal Crossing, unless they have a Mario Kart 9 up their sleeves.

Yup a good example is Avatar releasing in late 2009 and going on to become the highest grossing movie until the release Avengers Endgame and The Dark Knight releasing in 2008 manage to make a billion back when that is pretty rare to happen in the Box office. 

This time around though the movie industry isn't doing so good. Last weekend's total box office was $5,245.



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Ryng on 22 April 2020
RolStoppable said:
Amazing sales for Switch. Certainly puts the console on pace to sell 7m+ this year.

I predicted 6.8m early in January, i now predict 7.5m.