Using the 2.62mil figure and say 180k were ship to end quarter.... here are estimates we can see combining digital
15% = 800k (3.70mil)
20% = 1.04mil (3.85mil)
25% = 1.30mil (4.10mil)
30% = 1.56mil (4.35mil)
35% = 1.82mil (4.60mil)
40% = 2.08mil (4.90mil)
I think it has a shot even if very small to do close to 5mil in its first quarter..... o.O
Amazing Q1 Results for Switch Software, due to the launch of Animal Crossing New Horizons, Switch Top 10 Software have already sold over 4.5M, thats an increase of 89% compared to Q1/2019. For the entire 2019 Switch Top 10 titles sold 8.2M TOTAL. So Switch Software Top 10 Software Sales in 2020 are already close to 55% compared to last year's total, with three quarters left to go.
Also this doesn't paint the full picture since Animal Crossing is likely to have at between 1M to 1.5M Digital Sales in Japan in the past three weeks. No doubt the game has shipped over 4M for Q1 with digital.
Animal Crossing has already sold what Pokemon Sword / Shield - 2019's Top Selling physical game did in just two weeks. It will easily surpass 4.5M physical + 6M physical + digital this year in Japan due to its wide demographical appeal and historic legs. I cannot even predict how high it will end up but its going to be the Top Selling Japanese Game of all time by 2022 if digital is counted. Constant updates/events and price cuts to the Switch HW in the future will ensure multiple Switch devices with Animal Crossing per household in Japan.
TOP 10 2020 Switch Famitsu Q1:
TOTAL: 4.555.642(+89%)
TOP 10 2019 Switch Famitsu Q1:
TOTAL: 2.406.766(+19.7%)
TOP 10 2018 Switch Famitsu Q1:
TOTAL: 2.009.251
TOP 10 Switch Famitsu 2019:
TOTAL: 8.289.437
Pokemon vs Smash vs Splatoon 2
Pokemon Sword / Shield hasn't performed as well as Smash did in Q1/2019 but considering the additional content and the big expansion of player base, it won't be suprising if it ends up selling over 1.25M in 2020. Which would be a 25% increase compared to what Smash Ultimate did in 2019.
Ring Fit Adventure is shaping up to be the third biggest game for the first half of this year. Impacted by shortages since launch, it is not even close to saturation. Couple of positive and negative factors to consider:
+ More Stock for Ring Fit Adventure in Q2
+ New Demographic buying Switch HW due to Animal Crossing
- No digital
- Reliant on peripheral
- Not optimal on Switch Lite
Overall I expect Ring Fit to easly sell over 600K first half of 2020 but only if shortages are resolved. That type of results would place it in the Top 5 Switch Games for 2020. But personally I think it has a great chance to sell >1M this year in Japan.
Lifetime sales could easily put it close to the Top Selling Wii Sports game which sold 3.7M. I expect Ring Fit to contiue selling into 2021/2022. But I also think we should expect Switch Dance, Switch Sports type of games in 2020/2021.
| noshten said: The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 95.347 Zelda:Breath of the Wild - 192.209 |
It's painful to see how underappreciated is Zelda in Japan
They pick even easy-made remasters before this masterpiece
| IcaroRibeiro said: It's painful to see how underappreciated is Zelda in Japan They pick even easy-made remasters before this masterpiece |
Not really BOTW is the second best selling game in the series over there after the original Zelda with a total of around 1.5m at retail.
Wyrdness said:
Not really BOTW is the second best selling game in the series over there after the original Zelda with a total of around 1.5m at retail. |
It’s already number 1. 1.92mil+
Thanks RolStoppable,
MK8D vs Zelda:
Its a bit difficult to compare Zelda & Mario Kart, few games have never reached the heights of Mario Kart.
As mentioned Breath of the Wild will end up the best selling game in the franchise in Japan. Prior to the release few expected for it to do as well as it has done in Japan.
To me Zelda is no doubt one of the best games on the Switch, but Mario Kart with its capability to support 4 players locally, online modes, most well know racing game in the World has much greater demographic appeal. It's the type of game that people buying Switch will always have on the top of their list, whether they are buying a Switch for Animal Crossing, Splatoon 2, Odyssey, Ring Fit Adventure. Zelda doesn't have the same appeal, and it's not a knock on Zelda - there is a reason why CoD sells more than Witcher for example.
Still it's very much speaks to the strenght of Switch's launch year line up: Zelda was a reason for hardcore Nintendo fans to buy the Switch, Mario Kart 8 Deluxe was a reason for casual players to buy the Switch, Splatoon 2 was a reason for Japanese Market to continue buying Switch in the summer/Obon and finally Super Mario Odyssey was a reason for the Switch to continue selling strongly in the holiday months.
These games don't dissapear, even this year Zelda Breath of the Wild has sold 69.378, Splatoon 2 has sold 103.649, Mario Kart 8 Deluxe 181.921. Only Super Mario Odyssey has dissapeared from the charts but that's probably because it's also compeating with a lot of other Platformers. Zelda, Splatoon 2 and MK8D don't have competition on the Switch until their sequels come out.
Considering the expanded demographics on the Switch this year and the release of BotW2, I won't be suprised to see these 3 titles actually do as well as they did in 2019. This year will easily see a huge increase in Switch Hardware and more importantly new demographics in Japan picking up evergreens as their second games. This will be especially easy to see when Nintendo releases their results, because vouchers basically mean that new people purchasing something like Animal Crossing are pickingup a second game digitally. Digital has only grown for Nintendo since vouchers, so physical sales don't paint the full picture. Every time Nintendo has a big game releasing or a sale of 30% for MK8D, Splatoon 2, BotW a bunch of new users are potentially downloading those games.
2019 Physical Results:
So with shortages happening for awhile and selling out everything, can you imagaine this quarter for hardware sales? Already at 1.7mil in Q1
Q2:
W14 120k
W15 145k (AC Switch restock)
W16 100k
W17 85k
W18 120k (GW part 1)
W19 105k (GW part 2)
W20 60k (shortages really bad)
W21 45k
W22 75k (XC DE and others release)
W23 45k
W24 45k
W25 45k
W26 75k (end of quarter)
Total 1065k
Too much? That’ll put it at 2.7mil+
IcaroRibeiro said:
It's painful to see how underappreciated is Zelda in Japan They pick even easy-made remasters before this masterpiece |
its more about taste.
BOTW is more like a western acton adventure game, a genre that isn't as appealing to japan as the west, over in the west its a fully mainstream genre.
meanwhile japan's definition of mainstream is JRPGs.
just to give you a perspective from numbers almost 3 decades ago:
zelda, LTTP: 1.15 mil, holiday 1991
Fire emblem 3: 0.7 mil, january 1994
Fire emblem 4: 0.58 mil, may 1996
Fire emblem, even though its less of a niche in japan compared to the west(and didn't exist at this point in the west), sold half as much on its main SNES realese and did it again teo years later on its main SNES games (FE5 realesed in 1999, a bit too late to be a fair comparison).
another example is how metroid sales went from niche to near non-existance levels when metroid prime came out.
so yeah, zelda selling less is becasue they, in general, don't like the genre as much.
remember that dragon quest is thier equivilant to god of war or something in terms of popularity.
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