Amazing Q1 Results for Switch Software, due to the launch of Animal Crossing New Horizons, Switch Top 10 Software have already sold over 4.5M, thats an increase of 89% compared to Q1/2019. For the entire 2019 Switch Top 10 titles sold 8.2M TOTAL. So Switch Software Top 10 Software Sales in 2020 are already close to 55% compared to last year's total, with three quarters left to go.
Also this doesn't paint the full picture since Animal Crossing is likely to have at between 1M to 1.5M Digital Sales in Japan in the past three weeks. No doubt the game has shipped over 4M for Q1 with digital.
Animal Crossing has already sold what Pokemon Sword / Shield - 2019's Top Selling physical game did in just two weeks. It will easily surpass 4.5M physical + 6M physical + digital this year in Japan due to its wide demographical appeal and historic legs. I cannot even predict how high it will end up but its going to be the Top Selling Japanese Game of all time by 2022 if digital is counted. Constant updates/events and price cuts to the Switch HW in the future will ensure multiple Switch devices with Animal Crossing per household in Japan.
TOP 10 2020 Switch Famitsu Q1:
- Animal Crossing: New Horizons - 2.608.417
- Pokemon Sword / Shield - 554.390
- Ring Fit Adventure - 249.488
- Pokemon Mystery Dungeon: Rescue Team DX - 218.394
- Minecraft - 185.900
- Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 181.921
- Smash Ultimate - 170.222
- Dr. Kawashima's Brain Training for Nintendo Switch - 151.351
- Super Mario Party - 118.077
- Luigi's Mansion 3 - 117.482
TOTAL: 4.555.642(+89%)
TOP 10 2019 Switch Famitsu Q1:
- Smash Ultimate - 631.721
- New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe - 547.987
- Pokemon: Let's Go, Pikachu! / Let's Go, Eevee! - 225.481
- Super Mario Party - 220.392
- Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 206.568
- Minecraft - 182.522
- Splatoon 2 - 146.463
- Dragon Quest Builders 2 - 97.061
- The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 95.347
- Super Mario Odyssey - 53.224
TOTAL: 2.406.766(+19.7%)
TOP 10 2018 Switch Famitsu Q1:
- Splatoon 2 - 417.920
- Kirby Star Allies- 372.882
- Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 305.204
- Super Mario Odyssey - 297.817
- Zelda:Breath of the Wild - 192.209
- Mario + Rabbids - 187.675
- 1-2 Switch - 71.591
- Arms - 68.842
- Dragon Ball: Xenoverse 2 for Nintendo Switch - 48.010
- Dragon Quest Builders - 47.101
TOTAL: 2.009.251
TOP 10 Switch Famitsu 2019:
- Pokemon Sword / Shield - 2.744.658
- Smash Ultimate - 1.057.012
- Super Mario Maker 2 - 774.102
- New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe - 735.437
- Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 587.829
- Minecraft - 579.998
- Super Mario Party - 464.208
- Dragon Quest XI: Echoes of an Elusive Age S - 456.426
- Luigi's Mansion 3 - 446.649
- Ring Fit Adventure - 443.118
TOTAL: 8.289.437
Pokemon vs Smash vs Splatoon 2
- Smash Ultimate - 631.721
- Pokemon Sword / Shield - 554.390
- Splatoon 2 - 417.920
Pokemon Sword / Shield hasn't performed as well as Smash did in Q1/2019 but considering the additional content and the big expansion of player base, it won't be suprising if it ends up selling over 1.25M in 2020. Which would be a 25% increase compared to what Smash Ultimate did in 2019.
Ring Fit Adventure is shaping up to be the third biggest game for the first half of this year. Impacted by shortages since launch, it is not even close to saturation. Couple of positive and negative factors to consider:
+ More Stock for Ring Fit Adventure in Q2
+ New Demographic buying Switch HW due to Animal Crossing
- No digital
- Reliant on peripheral
- Not optimal on Switch Lite
Overall I expect Ring Fit to easly sell over 600K first half of 2020 but only if shortages are resolved. That type of results would place it in the Top 5 Switch Games for 2020. But personally I think it has a great chance to sell >1M this year in Japan.
Lifetime sales could easily put it close to the Top Selling Wii Sports game which sold 3.7M. I expect Ring Fit to contiue selling into 2021/2022. But I also think we should expect Switch Dance, Switch Sports type of games in 2020/2021.
