The 538 forecast trends more and more for Biden. Currently it has a 13% chance of a Trump-reelection and 87% for Biden (there is always a thin chance for a stalemate in the electoral college).

So from the standpoints of voters preference this election seems clear. But there are always factors that could influence elections beyond actual votes:

https://www.ocregister.com/2020/10/11/unofficial-ballot-drop-boxes-popping-up-throughout-the-state-worry-elections-officials/

Nah, that's not Trump, you're giving him way too much credit here. That's just the Modus Operandi of the GOP for decades now, trying to hinder people who they know probably won't vote for them to go vote as much as legally or illegally possible. 

And they have to do so too, as their membership numbers are faltering for years. 20 years ago the GOP still had close to 50M members, but in the last winter, it dropped to 32M and got surpassed by registered independent voters in the process. Meanwhile, the democrats still have over 45M members, and while their numbers are dropping, too, they don't do so nearly as fast as the GOP membership does. in the time the GOP lost over 15M, the Democrats lost maybe 4M members.

TFW you forgot to clean you hard drive before giving it to the nerd squad

Sleep well Mr. little crackhead Biden, you've earned these Burisma millions. P.s. Rudy got your pics now.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=La63fShAj0s

User has been warned for content - axum

What could go wrong with polling?

That doesn't show anything wrong with the polling... more of a misunderstanding of statistics.

If I asked you to pick a number between one and 10, you have about the same chance of getting the number correct as Trump has at winning. If you in fact do guess the correct number, that doesn't mean I was wrong in saying you had a 90% chance of being wrong.

For the record, fivethirtyeight gave Donald Trump a 1/3 chance of winning. So, it wasn't really that unlikely that the polls could be off enough for him to win, which he did by very narrow margins in a few states that mattered. This time around, it would have to be a much larger error, which is less likely.

Yep. That's the end of it. I encourage you to buy your champagne already.

Whelp, I voted today, which is the second day of in-person early voting in Texas. Straight-ticket Democrat, as usual. Easiest vote of my life.

Texas saw record-breaking first-day turnout yesterday. I don't think turnout will be a problem this year.

And...?  What does this have to do with the election?  This kinda crap is disgusting.  Joe is running for president, not his family, leave them out of the politics please.

Feeling a lot more confident that Biden will win Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. Would be amazing if he wins Arizona and Florida as well but they aren't needed if he gets the three previously mentioned states (assuming he holds what Hilary won in 2016 as well).

Florida would be awesome since it might get called on election night. If Florida, Arizona, and North Carolina get called for Biden, he actually has a good chance of reaching 270 on election night with safe states included.

I'm still a little iffy in the midwest. It's less logical, and more to do with trauma from 2016. The data seems to show that Clinton actually didn't lose much support over the last couple of weeks, but undecided voters broke strongly in favor of Trump. That's less likely to happen this year, as fewer voters are undecided. The Trump campaign is trying to make Hunter Biden the Comey letter 2.0, but I just don't see it happening. Too much other shit going on, the matter has already been investigated, and unlike the email issue it didn't have much traction in the first place. And, again, even if so, it wasn't so much that the Comey letter convinced people to drop Hillary, it more got undecideds to vote for Trump. Polls have also adjusted since 2016, and it's hard to square the idea of the national polls showing such a huge shift without those states shifting one point.

But despite all of that, I'm still nervous. 

I'm actually a bit more confident in Florida, since the polling there was accurate in 2016, and the civil unrest, particularly in Wisconsin, seems like a bit of an X-factor. Again, not logical necessarily, but just how I feel.


On a side note the long lines for voting piss me the fuck off.

Obviously, I don't begrudge anyone for exercising their right to vote. What upsets me is that this is a pandemic. Instead of complaining that the process for mail in voting was so terrible and shouldn't be trusted, the people in charge should have been making huge investments to make sure everyone could vote by mail and do so with confidence. If there were problems with mail in voting, which have not been demonstrated, they had months to solve them. Instead they did the exact opposite. Glad people are making sure they can cast their vote anyway, but it shouldn't have come to that.