By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Politics Discussion - Official 2020 US Presidential Election Thread

JWeinCom on 06 October 2020
Shadow1980 said:
JWeinCom said:

Not to nitpick on what's an overall great post, but I feel like the election probably won't end with no winner in those states. I'm guessing what happened was you copied the URL, and it just posted the neutral map before you made any changes.

I actually just snipped a screenshot and cropped it. The greyed out states in the second map are that way on purpose. As per the key, I consider them too close to call either way. I think NC is currently about 55/45 for Biden, while the others are close to 50/50. But odds are Biden will win at least 300 electoral votes, again assuming no chicanery from the GOP.

Ah. Sorry to question you then...

But on the other hand, grow a pair and predict Ohio.



Around the Network
JWeinCom on 07 October 2020
Shadow1980 said:
JWeinCom said:

Ah. Sorry to question you then...

But on the other hand, grow a pair and predict Ohio.

Biden by less than two percent, given the current trajectory of the polls and how consistently it votes with the winner (andBiden will almost certainly win).

Happy? :p

No North Carolina, but I suppose it'll do.

I still can't bring myself to say almost certainly no matter what the numbers say. My brain says one thing, but my anxiety says another.



haxxiy on 07 October 2020

Go big or go home?

Although to be fair, these tilt states will probably disappoint me on election day. And 2016 is a perpetual trauma, even after 2018.



 

 

 

 

 

Moren on 07 October 2020

For science sake, I wonder what the final margins will be like in Alaska and Montana. I know they'll go for Trump, but hopefully we get Bullock out of Montana.



Mnementh on 07 October 2020
Moren said:
For science sake, I wonder what the final margins will be like in Alaska and Montana. I know they'll go for Trump, but hopefully we get Bullock out of Montana.

Steve Daines is slightly favored in the forecast of 538:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/senate/montana/



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023

10 years greatest game event!

bets: [peak year] [+], [1], [2], [3], [4]

Around the Network
JWeinCom on 07 October 2020
haxxiy said:

Go big or go home?

Although to be fair, these tilt states will probably disappoint me on election day. And 2016 is a perpetual trauma, even after 2018.

Texas is slightly possible... but I'm not seeing the justification for South Carolina, Montana, or Alaska. 

It's kind of like you're predicting a reverse 2016.



haxxiy on 07 October 2020
JWeinCom said:
haxxiy said:

Go big or go home?

Although to be fair, these tilt states will probably disappoint me on election day. And 2016 is a perpetual trauma, even after 2018.

Texas is slightly possible... but I'm not seeing the justification for South Carolina, Montana, or Alaska. 

It's kind of like you're predicting a reverse 2016.

I wouldn't say a reverse 2016, albeit statistically speaking that's just as likely as 2016 itself was - more like a stronger 2008.

There have been some encouraging signs from House and Senate on South Carolina, Montana and Alaska. And, well, it's looking like a D+10 year, so it's not like some states need to be purple to flip. Even light red will do.



 

 

 

 

 

JWeinCom on 07 October 2020
haxxiy said:
JWeinCom said:

Texas is slightly possible... but I'm not seeing the justification for South Carolina, Montana, or Alaska. 

It's kind of like you're predicting a reverse 2016.

I wouldn't say a reverse 2016, albeit statistically speaking that's just as likely as 2016 itself was - more like a stronger 2008.

There have been some encouraging signs from House and Senate on South Carolina, Montana and Alaska. And, well, it's looking like a D+10 year, so it's not like some states need to be purple to flip. Even light red will do.

2008 was a bit different because Obama was a very strong candidate. Biden is not.

You can argue that Trump is a very weak candidate and that Biden is stronger relative to Trump than Obama was relative to McCain.

But... Trump won South Carolina by 14 points. Alaska by almost 15. Montana by 20. That's be a pretty big shift.

It's not impossible... but the odds are similar to Trump winning Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Which, of course, he did, but I don't think we should expect those things every year. 

If your map actually comes to pass though, that's the end of the republican party as we know it. 



Machiavellian on 07 October 2020

So, did anyone see this video clip from Joe Biden.  Nothing warms my heart during election time when I see each side playing these old dirty tricks.



JWeinCom on 07 October 2020
Machiavellian said:

So, did anyone see this video clip from Joe Biden.  Nothing warms my heart during election time when I see each side playing these old dirty tricks.

Eh, I'd like to hear a black person's take on this. But, I don't see that as offensive? He's pointing out how he's able to stay safe and comfortable because a lot of minorities are working.