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Forums - Politics - Official 2020 US Presidential Election Thread

Cyran said:
Rab said:

It didn't work when Biden said it, Biden had virtually no voter enthusiasm for him and his "policies" during the primaries, It was all Bernie at that point, bernie had by far the most money from donations, he had by far the most individual donors, he had the biggest rallys, he had the most endorsement amongst those that needed the Dems the most, his ideas were the most popular like Universal Health Care, he was on a roll

But the Establishment turn on him hard when it looked as though he would win, one candidate after another quit to back Biden, who at that point was looking very weak, but the Establishment Dems were rooting for him and they made it happen, one after another all the other candidate pulled out and turned on Sanders, dashing the hopes of his enthusiastic campaign to finally change the system to one that better suited the working class and young  

A little revisionist history there.  Biden looked bad in a grand total of 3 states Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada and everyone wrote him off before any major state had voted.  He then won south Carolina by a huge margin and this was before anyone dropped out of the race.  It was only after South Carolina where every other establishment candidate did horrible did they start accepting Biden as the represented and started dropping out.

So yeah all the establishment candidate backed Biden after dropping out but what did you expect them to do? Of course they backed the candidate they agreed with.  Also if you look at the super Tuesday states Biden would beat Bernie+elizbeth in most states.  My point there is Biden did not win because the establishment vote came together and the liberal vote was split.  He won because more primary voters support his approach over Bernie.

Except you miss a lot that gave the impression Biden didn't have the enthusiasm (very poor doner turn out numbers, most donors by far being super packs and corporates including wall street, very small and I mean small lack luster rallies, very low campaign funding, weak policies, all in stark contrast to Bernie) with voters but was supported by the Establishment Media and Dems to make him appear to be the chosen one and only choice, could have been Bernie if the Dems backed him

Biden had next to no one excited about his Status quo almost no policies bland talking points, yet he was put on a pedestal by the Establishment, he got boosted in the electorates eyes, again this could have been Bernie with the same support 

The fact you said the Est Dems choose their man because they agreed with him speaks the loudest against Biden, it's the Est Dems status quo, "don't change anything" ideas  that the young and working class hate about them, this will bite them on the ass come 2024, the Dems have no mandate or vision and are seen by new voters as Republican "lite" 

Last edited by Rab - on 06 December 2020

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Always Money For WAR -- Congress Won't Help People (i.e. Universal Healthcare), But Passes War Budget

Jimmy Dore in his famous blunt and honest way pulls apart the hypocrisy and how out of touch the Establishment really are, the establishment suit themselves at the expense of what the people actually want by keeping their narrative the only one that is heard   

Last edited by Rab - on 06 December 2020

Actually nvm. Got work to do, can't get into this now.



Rab said:
Cyran said:

A little revisionist history there.  Biden looked bad in a grand total of 3 states Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada and everyone wrote him off before any major state had voted.  He then won south Carolina by a huge margin and this was before anyone dropped out of the race.  It was only after South Carolina where every other establishment candidate did horrible did they start accepting Biden as the represented and started dropping out.

So yeah all the establishment candidate backed Biden after dropping out but what did you expect them to do? Of course they backed the candidate they agreed with.  Also if you look at the super Tuesday states Biden would beat Bernie+elizbeth in most states.  My point there is Biden did not win because the establishment vote came together and the liberal vote was split.  He won because more primary voters support his approach over Bernie.

Except you miss a lot that gave the impression Biden didn't have the enthusiasm (very poor doner turn out numbers, most donors by far being super packs and corporates including wall street, very small and I mean small lack luster rallies, very low campaign funding, weak policies, all in stark contrast to Bernie) with voters but was supported by the Establishment Media and Dems to make him appear to be the chosen one and only choice, could have been Bernie if the Dems backed him

Biden had next to no one excited about his Status quo almost no policies bland talking points, yet he was put on a pedestal by the Establishment, he got boosted in the electorates eyes, again this could have been Bernie with the same support 

The fact you said the Est Dems choose their man because they agreed with him speaks the loudest against Biden, it's the Est Dems status quo, "don't change anything" ideas  that the young and working class hate about them, this will bite them on the ass come 2024, the Dems have no mandate or vision and are seen by new voters as Republican "lite" 

To say that Biden's policies wouldn't change anything is fundamentally nonsense. It may not change as much as you want, but if all of Biden's policy proposal were put into place, we would be looking at a radically different America. 

And for as popular as some of Bernie's policies are, when it comes to the tagline, Biden's "Medicare for All Who Want It" largely polls better than "Medicare for All", so again, you cannot simplify this as much as you want to. Bernie wasn't just popular because he embraced popular policies, just as Biden didn't only win because the "establishment". 

There is some truth in what you are saying, but it just becomes so muddled in oversimplifications and talking points that it starts to sound like nonsense the more you dig in your heels. 



Rab said:
sundin13 said:

If it worked against Bernie when Biden said it, I'm not sure why you think it wouldn't work against Bernie when Republicans say it. That is my point here. There is virtually no evidence that embracing Bernie's policies would improve the Left's chances in federal elections, because the question is so much more complicated than "Is this policy popular".

It didn't work when Biden said it, Biden had virtually no voter enthusiasm for him and his "policies" during the primaries, It was all Bernie at that point, bernie had by far the most money from donations, he had by far the most individual donors, he had the biggest rallys, he had the most endorsement amongst those that needed the Dems the most, his ideas were the most popular like Universal Health Care, he was on a roll

But the Establishment turn on him hard when it looked as though he would win, one candidate after another quit to back Biden, who at that point was looking very weak, but the Establishment Dems were rooting for him and they made it happen, one after another all the other candidate pulled out and turned on Sanders, Dashing the Hopes of his enthusiastic campaign to finally change the system to one that better suited the working class and young

Sanders to his great credit kept his word and campaigned very strongly for the eventual nominee Biden in the 2020 Election 

If the Dems had gotten behind the popular Sanders as the nominee and rejected every Rep talking point, Sanders would have won just as easily against Trump, particularly as much of the motivation to vote was simply to get rid of Trump

Arguably Sanders could also have won in 2016 if the Dems didn't try so hard to stop him to prop up the very unpopular Hillary, and instead embraced him as the future of the Dem parties new and young voters that will eventually replace the old conservative guard   

If Sanders would have been supported, he would have won, and America today would look at a string of massive reforms that would benefit so many generations to come, instead the Est Dems conspired to keep the tired old and damaged system alive for at least a while longer  

Your first two paragraphs are factually incorrect: Biden won the vast majority of polls during the primaries, and the candidate with the second most poll wins was Elizabeth Warren - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_2020_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries

Bernie Sanders didn't lose because this mysterious "establishment" turned on him - seriously, that sounds like some kind of QAnon deep state level conspiracy theory. He lost because more people voted for Biden in the primaries, and it wasn't even close.

Why would the Democratic party back Bernie when Biden defeated him?

A better argument is that Sanders would have done worse because he had less support among Democratic voters than Hillary Clinton, and was also more hated by right-wingers.

Of course Sanders would have won if had more supporters, but he didn't, that's why he lost. That's kind of the point of voting.

It's naive to think Sanders would have automatically been able to implement all these massive reforms. That's not how democracy works in Western nations.

Also, what conspiracy? Are you seriously suggesting the election was fraudulent? Do you have any proof of that?

One of the biggest problems is this sort of zealotry on the right, but it clearly occurs on the left, too. Just because your candidate of choice isn't as popular as you think they should be doesn't mean there's a conspiracy.



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Jumpin said:

One of the biggest problems is this sort of zealotry on the right, but it clearly occurs on the left, too. Just because your candidate of choice isn't as popular as you think they should be doesn't mean there's a conspiracy.

This is the story of the US.  Most of the talking points from most of the Trump supporters I know is how can Biden get so many votes when we had these big rallies etc.  We even have people that did not vote for President Trump that say how did he get 74 million votes.  Both sides cannot believe that so many people supported each candidate or hate/disapprove that much of the other.  



Machiavellian said:
Jumpin said:

One of the biggest problems is this sort of zealotry on the right, but it clearly occurs on the left, too. Just because your candidate of choice isn't as popular as you think they should be doesn't mean there's a conspiracy.

This is the story of the US.  Most of the talking points from most of the Trump supporters I know is how can Biden get so many votes when we had these big rallies etc.  We even have people that did not vote for President Trump that say how did he get 74 million votes.  Both sides cannot believe that so many people supported each candidate or hate/disapprove that much of the other.  

And yet the turnout is still pretty low honestly.



Barozi said:
Machiavellian said:

This is the story of the US.  Most of the talking points from most of the Trump supporters I know is how can Biden get so many votes when we had these big rallies etc.  We even have people that did not vote for President Trump that say how did he get 74 million votes.  Both sides cannot believe that so many people supported each candidate or hate/disapprove that much of the other.  

And yet the turnout is still pretty low honestly.

Still pretty high for an anti-democratic country.



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Deep (Safe) colors: >20%
Solid (Likely) colors: 10 - 19.9%
Light (Lean) colors: 5 - 9.9%
Very light (Tilt) colors: 2 - 4.9%
Brown (Toss Up): <2%

What you guys are seeing here is a projection of the 2036 Electoral College Map (with 2020 Electoral Vote distribution, it will be updated for 2024) based on current voting % trends, as listed below:

StatesEC - 2024 (2020, +/-)20042020Trend2036 (Projection)
Alabama8 (9, -1)R - 25.7R - 25.5Left - 0.2R - 25.3
Alaska3 (3, 0)R - 25.6R - 10.1Left - 15.5D - 5.4
Arizona12 (11, +1)R - 10.5D - 0.3Left - 10.8D -11.1
Arkansas6 (6, 0)R - 9.9R - 27.6Right - 17.7R - 45.3
California54 (55, -1)D - 9.9D - 29.2Left - 19.3D - 48.5
Colorado10 (9, +1)R - 4.7D - 13.5Left - 18.2D - 31.7
Connecticut7 (7, 0)D - 10.4D - 20.1Left - 9.7D - 29.8
Delaware3 (3, 0)D - 7.5D - 19Left - 11.5D - 30.8
D.C.3 (3, 0)D - 79.9D - 87.6Left - 7.7D - 95.3
Florida31 (29, +2)R - 5R - 3.3Left - 1.7R - 1.6
Georgia16 (16, 0)R - 16.6D - 0.2Left - 16.8D - 17
Hawaii4 (4, 0)D - 8.7D - 29.4Left - 20.7D - 50.1
Idaho4 (4, 0)R - 38.2R - 30.8Left - 7.4R - 23.4
Illinois19 (20, -1)D - 10.3D - 16.9Left - 6.6D - 23.5
Indiana11 (11, 0)R - 20.6R - 16.1Left - 4.5R - 11.6
Iowa6 (6, 0)R - 0.6R - 8.2Right - 7.6R - 15.8
Kansas6 (6, 0)R - 25.4R - 14.8Left - 10.6R - 4.2
Kentucky8 (8, 0)R - 19.8R - 25.9Right - 6.1R - 32
Louisiana8 (8, 0)R - 14.5R - 18.6Right - 4.1R - 22.7
Maine4 (4, 0)D - 9D - 9.1Left - 0.1D - 9.2
Maryland10 (10, 0)D - 13D - 33.4Left - 20.4D - 53.8
Massachusetts11 (11, 0)D - 25.2D - 33.6Left - 8.4D - 42
Michigan15 (16, -1)D - 3.4D - 2.8Right - 0.6D - 2.2
Minnesota9 (10, -1)D - 3.4D - 7.2Left - 3.8D - 11
Mississippi6 (6, 0)R - 19.7R - 16.5Left - 3.2R - 13.3
Missouri10 (10, 0)R - 7.2R - 15.4Right - 8.2R - 23.6
Montana4 (3, +1)R - 20.5R - 16.3Left - 4.2R - 12.1
Nebraska5 (5, 0)R - 33.3R - 19.1Left - 14.2R - 4.9
Nevada6 (6, 0)R - 2.6D - 2.4Left - 5D - 7.4
New Hampshire4 (4, 0)D - 1.4D - 7.4Left - 6D - 13.4
New Jersey14 (14, 0)D - 6.8D - 15.9Left - 9.1D - 25
New Mexico5 (5, 0)R - 0.8D - 10.8Left - 11.6D - 22.4
New York28 (29, -1)D - 18.1D - 23.1Left - 5D - 28.1
North Carolina16 (15, +1)R - 12.5R - 1.4Left - 11.1D - 9.7
North Dakota3 (3, 0)R - 27.4R - 33.6Right - 6.2R - 39.8
Ohio17 (18, -1)R - 2.1R - 8Right - 5.9R - 13.9
Oklahoma7 (7, 0)R - 31.2R - 33.1Right - 1.9R - 35
Oregon8 (7, +1)D - 4.2D - 16.2Left - 12D - 28.2
Pennsylvania19 (20, -1)D - 2.5D - 1.2Right - 1.3R - 0.1
Rhode Island3 (4, -1)D - 20.7D - 20.9Left - 0.2D - 21.1
South Carolina9 (9, 0)R - 17.1R - 11.7Left - 5.4R - 6.3
South Dakota3 (3, 0)R - 21.5R - 26.2Right - 4.7R - 30.9
Tennessee11 (11, 0)R - 14.3R - 23.2Right - 8.2R - 31.4
Texas41 (38, +3)R - 22.9R - 5.6Left - 17.3D - 11.7
Utah*6 (6, 0)R - 46.3R - 20.5Left - 25.8D - 5.3
Vermont3 (3, 0)D - 20.1D - 35.6Left - 15.5D - 51.1
Virginia13 (13, 0)R - 8.2D - 10.2Left - 18.4D - 28.6
Washington12 (12, 0)D - 7.2D - 19.4Left - 12.2D - 31.6
West Virginia4 (5, -1)R - 12.9R - 38.9Right - 26R - 64.9
Wisconsin10 (10, 0)D - 0.4D - 0.7Left - 0.3D - 1
Wyoming3 (3, 0)R - 39.9R - 43.7Right - 3.8R - 47.5
Electoral Count538 (Actual Results)R - 298-240 (286-251)D - 302-236 (306-232)D - 349-189

R = Republican
D = Democrat
* = Bullshit (Trump was so unpopular among Mormons that I really doubt that Utah is flipping left THAT much, if at all. If the GOP gets ANY other candidate on the ballot, it'll swing right back the other way.)

The reasons I went with 2004 as a comparison is because that was the last time a Republican incumbent was running for reelection (Bush Jr.) and I thought 4 elections and 16 years were nice even numbers to compare to. If we look at the table and how the 2024 Electoral Map would've effected the races in '04 and this year, it gets pretty clear why the Republicans want to keep the Electoral College. Because it's the best shot they have of winning the election. Because with how the vast majority of these states, 36 of them + D.C. to be exact, have been trending further to the left, they wouldn't stand a chance if it was decided via the popular vote. But, based on all these trends, it looks like it's not going to matter either way. Even if some or most of these states aren't actually trending they way the numbers say they are (Utah going blue? Are you kidding me?) It highlights what we have already known for a while, that the "Blue Wave" is coming. I thought this might give us a better idea of 'where' it's coming from. 

If these trends are accurate, the deep blue states like CA, WA, OR, CO, VA, NY CT, MA MD, RI, NJ, IL, etc. are going to keep getting bluer. Some of the deep red states like ND, SD, AR, MO, TN, and LA are going to keep getting redder. Some basic shit we already knew. 

What's interesting to see is some of the states that are projected to swing within the next 16 years. Assuming these are accurate, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, and Texas should all be solid blue by 2036. And ironically enough, those are the states where all the Electoral Votes are headed. While the states that are trending red a good chunk of the Rust belt such as Pennsylvania, Iowa, Ohio, and Michigan are LOSING Electoral Votes. Those 4 states altogether should be worth 57 Electoral Votes in 2024, Texas alone will be worth 41, add Georgia, North Carolina, and Arizona to that, and they'd be worth 85. I just find it funny how the very system that Republicans are trying to keep alive is the one that could very well screw them over for years and years to come. 

What made me raise an eyebrow is that some of these states that are deep red at the moment, might come close to being battlegrounds or even shift blue completely in the near future. States such as Kansas, Nebraska, South Carolina could become plausible for the Democrats in the near future and Alaska may even go blue. And some states like Alabama, Mississippi, Montana, and Indiana may not be too far out of reach in 16 years.

I'm not sure how these trends are going to go. If they keep continuing like they have been, or if some candidate catches fire from either side and completely throws a curveball into everything or what, but if all of these are accurate and continue down the paths they have been, well, I wouldn't want to be a Republican right now.



Rab said:
Cyran said:

A little revisionist history there.  Biden looked bad in a grand total of 3 states Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada and everyone wrote him off before any major state had voted.  He then won south Carolina by a huge margin and this was before anyone dropped out of the race.  It was only after South Carolina where every other establishment candidate did horrible did they start accepting Biden as the represented and started dropping out.

So yeah all the establishment candidate backed Biden after dropping out but what did you expect them to do? Of course they backed the candidate they agreed with.  Also if you look at the super Tuesday states Biden would beat Bernie+elizbeth in most states.  My point there is Biden did not win because the establishment vote came together and the liberal vote was split.  He won because more primary voters support his approach over Bernie.

Except you miss a lot that gave the impression Biden didn't have the enthusiasm (very poor doner turn out numbers, most donors by far being super packs and corporates including wall street, very small and I mean small lack luster rallies, very low campaign funding, weak policies, all in stark contrast to Bernie) with voters but was supported by the Establishment Media and Dems to make him appear to be the chosen one and only choice, could have been Bernie if the Dems backed him

Biden had next to no one excited about his Status quo almost no policies bland talking points, yet he was put on a pedestal by the Establishment, he got boosted in the electorates eyes, again this could have been Bernie with the same support 

The fact you said the Est Dems choose their man because they agreed with him speaks the loudest against Biden, it's the Est Dems status quo, "don't change anything" ideas  that the young and working class hate about them, this will bite them on the ass come 2024, the Dems have no mandate or vision and are seen by new voters as Republican "lite" 

Primaries and General elections are not the same thing.  Youth vote was actually way up this general election and Biden won it fairly handily.  Could Bernie have won it bigger maybe but there are many people like my self that believe it would not have compensated for the lost of suburban voters in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia.

Have to fight by the rules given not the one we want and the reality is running the score up in solid blue states even more would not won the election.

It impossible to know what would of happen but I know Biden won and I don't know and am very skeptical Bernie would have won.