Bofferbrauer2 said:
Cyran said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:
Cyran said:
Here the problem for democrats. Cultural issues is an advantage for republicans because of how people on the right view them vs people on the left. What I mean is that people on the left will vote financial over cultural. People on the right is much more likely vote culture over financial. What then happens is poor people who the left policy might be more beneficial for them will vote republican because of cultural reason and middle class/rich who more concern about there taxes since they already got decent health care and food on table will also vote republican even if they might agree with the left on cultural issue. This not a 100% thing but it enough of this going on is why I believe elections are soooo close always because many working Americans that agree with the left financial policy vote republican. See Florida where Minimum wage passed easily but trump also won the state by multiple percentage points (but still significantly less then what Minimum wage increase passed by). |
Which makes updating the hopelessly outdated voting systems in the US even more urgent than it already is. |
I see this brought up a lot and it not that I disagree but it not going to happen so I rather focus on stuff that in the realm of possibility. I mean there a very off chance we could one day get popular vote for president if enough states agreed but even that will have a ton of legal objections in the courts if enough states passed it. I would still bet against it anytime in the next 20 years or maybe more. Changing the constitution in the current climate is basically imposable. Doing it on a state by state basis does not work. An example of what I mean is if California agreed to break there electoral college votes up proportional but no red state did then all you did was make it way easier for republicans to win and nothing else. There is 0 path for major reform of the kind people talking about. People are welcome to try but I just don't see how it possible with the state of politics in the USA and the mind set of many Americans when it come to these kind of things. |
Changing the constitution is not absolutely necessary - all that's needed is that the electoral votes don't go winner-takes-all, which can be decided at state level. Maine has actually changed to Ranked Choice Voting for the 2020 election, which means putting a third party or independent candidate as your first choice is not wasted anymore, though the winner still takes it all. But since Maine is cut up into districts, that only affects Maine at large's 2 EVs. There's nothing that could hinder a state to switch to a more proportional distribution of their electoral votes if they wanted to implement this. That would already be a huge step forward, especially for smaller parties, as they would get some representation and 270 could only be reached with a coalition most of the time, which would remove the animosity between the parties. I mean, you never know if you maybe need them after the election to form a government, so better not tell them off and then be barred from a possible coalition because of it... |
There's nothing legally to prevent that, but politically it's a different story.
Let's say California thought it was a really good idea, and decided to allocate on a strict popular vote. In that case, Biden would receive about 36 electoral votes, and Trump 19 (assuming that voting patterns did not change).
So, we're not at Trump 251 and Biden at 287.
Let's say that Pennsylvania also decides to do that. There's basically an even split there, but since Biden won more, we'll call that 11-9. That means Trump 260 and Biden at 278.
Let's suppose Georgia also likes the plan and is split 8-7. Trump 267 Biden 271.
And lastly, we'll do the same for Connecticut, which was around 60-40. That would be roughly 4-3 We're not at 270 for Trump, and 268 for Biden.
Obviously this example stacked the deck by having only states Biden won using the system. But, it shows why most states which are considered "safe" for either side would be reluctant to change. Unless there were a corresponding number of safe states from the other party, it would lead to the result they presumably don't want.
On the other hand, states like Pennsylvania or Florida may be more willing to go for proportionality. The parties may both agree to this as it allows them to essentially hedge their bets. However, it is not in the state's interest to do so. Unlike safe states, which get ignored because they're seen as either guaranteed or unwinnable, a state like Pennsylvania gets tons of attention from presidential candidates, and it becomes more important for candidates to please them. So, the status quo actually benefits the state and their unlikely to adopt a proportional method.
There are tons of better ways of doing things, but any change will almost inevitably benefit one party or the other, and both parties are too powerful to let that happen.