Even with 500k and a 20% advantage for Trump it won't be enough. it give a split of ~ 225k vs 275k for trump.

So a 50k swing, not enough to overcome the 90k+ Biden lead as of now.  

Hopefully Arizona will hold.

Pennsylvania gap is down to ~460k. This is the PS3 vs 360 gap war all over again.

Rumor has it Trump might still win Arizona, allegedly due to the ballots cast at the end of early voting favoring him in Maricopa County. I don't believe that for a second, but I ran the numbers anyway. Of the 433,327 expected remaining votes (nbc.com), Trump would need to win 60.8% of them to reach a tie, assuming the 3rd party percentage remains the same. Maybe there's some election day vote that hasn't been counted, which would favor Trump a lot. But e-day votes are supposed to have been counted quickly, so there shouldn't be many left. I don't think he'll catch up.

EDIT: Looks like I was on the late freight on this one, and my numbers seem to be off. lol

EDIT 2: Oh, it's Data Orbital. Unless they kept an eye on the late vote and ran the numbers (which they didn't provide), I don't know where they're getting that 20% Trump late early vote margin, or why it would be different in AZ vs everywhere else.

If Arizona goes to Trump, then whoever wins Pennsylvania wins the election. Except if Georgia really goes to Biden, but I am doubtful.

EDIT: For the record - I am also doubtful Arizona really goes to Trump, Biden leads with 100K there.

AP: Democrat Sara Gideon conceded to Republican U.S. Sen. Susan Collins in a hard-fought U.S. Senate race in Maine

— Jesse Rodriguez (@JesseRodriguez) November 4, 2020

I’m not American, nor do I like him as a person. If I were I’d vote Trump purely because he isn’t a democrat. Say what you will about his personality, he did a lot of things in his term. The economy was surging under his term. He is an alternative to the increasingly socialist policies of the dems. Russia/North Korea aren’t active threats anymore. Iran has been defanged with the general being assassinated along with pulling out of the nuclear deal. Killing the ISIS leader, reaching a stepping stone to peace with Israel and countries it conflicts with. 

Economy and foreign policy were his strengths. Covid response and border policy are his major faults...along with every unfiltered thing he says lol. 

Biden got ~73% of the votes in that second "weaker" batch (ignoring 3rd party).

For the remaining ballots this would mean 791k for Biden, 292k for Trump. 499k in favour of Biden, meaning he would win the state with 50k.
If the following batches are just between that "first" batch and the following batch, the lead will be quite comfortable.

The mail in votes that came in from Wisconsin and Michigan were much heavier democratic than that. They're not only mail in ballots, but they're mail in ballots mainly in counties where Biden was already winning the in person vote. Toss up right now.

Collins winning Maine is a HUGE relief to me. I was more concerned about the Senate than the Presidency, what with Democrats threatening to expand the Supreme Court (because they are used to the Court going there way for decades on major issues, such as abortion and Obamacare, and they can't tolerate it being origanalistic-leaning for once) and threatening to add states to the union just to give themselves a perpetual advantage going forward in the Senate (D.C. and Puerto Rico). D.C. should just rejoin a state if they are so desperate to be counted towards the senate. Their lands were literally taken out of existing states, not like they were settlers moving into untamed lands, so if they want statehood they should vote to remerge with another state like Maryland, where they will have other like-mindedly liberal individuals and they can all be happy together. And Puerto Ricans are pretty divided on what they want to do so I doubt they could all get behind that anyway.

Anyway, with Alaska and the two Georgia races going Republican (at least I'm assuming based on numbers so far), looks like Republicans will keep control of the Senate with at least 51, possibly up to 52 or 53. Collins is a moderate, so she will no doubt confirm Biden appointed justices (which, worse case for conservatives, means 50-50 tie in the Senate with Harris being the tie breaker). What this means going forward, if Biden wins (which I expect him to at this point):

1) Biden won't get anything done that isn't bipartisan for at least 2 years. Honestly he's probably happy with that. I don't think Biden particularly likes Sanders/Warren/AOC. I get the impression, on core issues, he feels more in line with moderates in his party (regardless of what he says on TV to appease the socialists). And the only way he is getting anything done is if he can get Collins on board, and not lose vulnerable votes from democrats in red/purple states concerned about their own re-election chances in 2-4 years (Manchin, Sinema, Tester). That's at least 4 moderates he will have to appease to get things done. None of those four do I anticipate voting for huge environmental reform bills, or massive government spending on new programs. Because of this, I suspect Biden's first 2 years, and possibly his entire first term, will be mostly a "chill" presidency, which may be what we all need anyway haha. 4 years of nothing happening would probably calm people down some.

2) The chances of Harris invoking the 25th amendment just decreased. She won't have the backing of the Senate to enact extremely liberal policies, which will make losing moderate Democrats support when she runs for re-election (by betraying Biden) less "worth it" in the short term, as she won't be able to accomplish much. Unless Biden literally can't do the job, I don't think he will be removed from office. And if he does get removed, I suspect Harris to nominate a moderate as her VP to balance it out. If Democrats had picked up enough of the Senate to give them, say, a 53-47 lead with Harris, I suspect Harris would 25th amendment Biden, nominate an ultra liberal as her VP, and do whatever she wants for at least 2 years.