sundin13 said:
Insta-calls are usually based on exit polling and state history/polling. Basically they are saying that counting the votes is a formality because all signs point to an easy victory. If you look at county level data, you see that the cities have a very small margin reporting. Expect a huge swing. |
Mnementh said:
Maryland has been called for Biden with exactly no vote counts reported. Probably some states are seen as safe enough, and if exit polls show no big surprises it gets called by the media outlets. Probably in Virginia more democratic leaning counties are expected later. |
jason1637 said:
Virginia is a democratic state. Current projections had Biden winning and the current Trump votes doesn't seem to have a big enough effect to change that. |
shikamaru317 said:
My guess would be that most of the counties and cities they have already counted are ones that Trump won in 2016, and they're not seeing a big enough increase in those counties and cities compared to his performance in 2016 to offset the expected Biden lead in the remaining counties and cities. Personally it seems suspect to me, I know that Trump took all of the counties in my area of Virginia by a higher percentage than he did in 2016, Trump gained 13% in my county compared to 2016, from 71% up to 84%. I think they may have called Virginia too early but we'll have to wait and see. |
Thanks all for replying to me.
It is an interesting approach, calling it before hand.
I looked further into the county data, there seems to be probably well over 50 counties (didn't count them). What I find interesting is that say for the whole state, all the seats go to one party. Here in Aus, we have electoral regions in each state. So using Virginia as an example who appear to have 13 seats? In Australia, if Virginia was part of it, there be 13 unique electoral regions (one for each seat) voted by only the people in that electoral region. Our smaller suburb regions (which I guess are similar to the counties) would be aggregated into 13 electoral regions. It would then be possible for say republicans to win 5 seats and democrats say win the remaining 8 seats in the one state.
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