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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Staring into the abyss of a world where Nintendo has no games scheduled for release. Edit: The Time of Darkness Has Arrived

RolStoppable said:
javi741 said:

Nintendo does owe everyone something because we're the ones that keep them alive, if they don't give us anything we desire they die, simple.

Yes evergreen games help sell a system even well after release I'm not arguing that. However, you can't live off of evergreen titles to sell your system on its own because in most cases, people interested in that game already purchased the system around launch. There's a reason why no one is going out buying a Wii for Mario Galaxy in 2020. Nintendo can't let the excitement of there brand slip again, they need to come out with new unveilings and game releases for the future to keep consumer engagement again, I'm sure potentially millions of potential purchasers are currently holding off buying a Switch because they currently don't see much of a future for it.

So very overdramatic. The only reasonable reason why there would be millions of potential purchasers holding off right now is that Switch is supply constrained.

The reason why this thread here is so dumb is because a single day of Nintendo action constitutes a slap into the face of all the doubters. When the "Time of Darkness" (thread title edit) arrived the first time, Animal Crossing just came out. Shortly after there was a Direct that had release dates for upcoming Nintendo games. The second time the "Time of Darkness" had arrived, Paper Mario was announced shortly after. What we see in hindsight is a first party release schedule that has been just as robust as the comparable timeframe in previous years, so excuse the reasonable people for not joining you and others in beating the drama drum.

The Switch console itself was unveiled late as well. Nintendo didn't do a proper presentation until under two months before its launch. Back then in 2016, a lot of people were upset and claimed that Nintendo is doing it wrong because you can't build hype and properly market video game products in a short time. All of them were proven to be complete idiots, because today we live in the age of the internet where information gets to potential customers very fast.

I get it, people would like to know about games they can't play. But maybe you guys should ask yourself what's the point of it. Is it anything more than anticipation and hype, two feelings with a definite expiration date on them? Switch is three years old and has nothing to prove anymore; it doesn't need to sell on promises, because it already has more than enough reasons to be worth a purchase. Would the most recent release Paper Mario have been any cooler if it had had a leadup time to its launch twice or thrice as long? We know that Breath of the Wild 2, among other long announced titles, is in development, but that's not satisfying the complaints in this thread either.

Why?

Because it isn't really about what Nintendo does or does not do. It's about the desire to complain, all reason be damned.

"This porridge is too hot."
"This porridge is too cold."
"This porridge doesn't taste exactly like I want it to."

The above is this thread in a nutshell.

I'm not supporting the thread bashing Nintendo for not unveiling anything for the 2020 Holiday Season in March since things were uncertain with Covid-19 and we were still months away from the holiday season when a lot could happen between this time. 

However, when we're literally 1-3 months away from the holiday season at this point, even with this Covid lockdown situation Nintendo should at this point be near or at 100% completion for there games this holiday season and should be certain what games should be releasing this holiday season. Nintendo minimum needs to give a 30 day notice between reveal and release of a major game to setup pre-orders with retailers beforehand. There is literally no way Nintendo is not certain of their release schedule at this time and that a game releasing this holiday is still far from completion, especially since Nintendo isn't known for crunching. Not revealing any information at this point is just silly and only hurts Nintendo by limiting the awarenesses of a game.

You bring up the example of the Switch having a short period between reveal and release and still being a success, while that is true, however the Switch had a 5 months of people knowing about it's its release compared to this situation where we're likely only going to get a 1-3 month notice for games this Holiday season, and that's a major difference especially when it comes games since games often don't have as much marketing behind it as an entire console, to have only a 1-3 month window to advertise a game is extremely short and consumers might not realize the game exists until after it launch where the game loses a lot of it's hype compared to launch limiting the potential sales of hype of a game. We know that a launch of a game is vital in determining how successful a game turns out to be, limiting your launch by only having a 1-3 month Advertising window is just stupid. Also, not everyone are gaming nerds like us who watch Nintendo Directs or game trailers the day they release, most gamers are casual compared to us and there are still people to this day who don't know what the Switch is and thinks Nintendo is only making Wii games still, I'm sure if Nintendo gave the Switch a longer time of marketing before launch it could've sold EVEN BETTER than it is right now.  The more marketing for a longer time= the better, this should be a simple concept to understand. 



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Shaunodon said:
VideoGameAccountant said:
I'm planning on writing an article on this, but the issue is that Nintendo is going into their earnings release with no titles and no prospects for the future. They can't really blame COVID because their peers (Sony and Microsoft) have no trouble showing off their upcoming titles. And they can't just get away with "We have numerous titles in development." If they have nothing, then investors should sell the stock because there is no reason to think 2020 can beat 2019, even with the initial boost in sales in April and May (Nintendo still makes most of their money in Calendar Q4).

I think it's one thing for fans to moan and groan. It's another for investor. Nintendo needs to get on the ball and show something, even if they don't think it can make FY 2021. That said, I think there is some massive structural issues that are causing these delays and COVID just revealed them, but perhaps a story for another day.

Actually I'm glad someone mentioned this, because what Sony and Microsoft have shown actually help justify Nintendo's actions.

For Sony, the only upcoming game they have for the holidays is a short standalone-expansion for Spider-Man. It'll probably be good, but it's still only a short experience built upon a previous game.

For Microsoft, their Halo Infinite demo is the perfect example of why you shouldn't reveal or announce any games before they're ready, cause all they've done is hurt expectations for that title. Halo Infinite does not look like a game ready to release this year.

In contrast, if Nintendo feel like they should wait until the last minute to decide what big titles they can realistically have (properly)finished these holidays, I'm more than happy to wait. At least they're making sure whatever they have should be worth the wait.

It doesn't justify Nintendo's action. Both Sony and Microsoft are both releasing titles and new hardware in 2020. Both Sony and Microsoft have shown their line up for at least the near future, even if everything doesn't have a release date. That's more excusable when you have a new generation. Nintendo's issue is they can't even get one title out for the rest of the year. Nintendo had three years of strong earnings and cash flow and is only making for a single system, so they're inability to produce anything makes them look bad. Nintendo can't even do the bare minimum. 

Also, we're 5 months to the end of the year. If Nintendo doesn't know what they can or can't release now, than they have way bigger problems than the virus. 

Marth said:
VideoGameAccountant said:
I'm planning on writing an article on this, but the issue is that Nintendo is going into their earnings release with no titles and no prospects for the future. They can't really blame COVID because their peers (Sony and Microsoft) have no trouble showing off their upcoming titles. And they can't just get away with "We have numerous titles in development." If they have nothing, then investors should sell the stock because there is no reason to think 2020 can beat 2019, even with the initial boost in sales in April and May (Nintendo still makes most of their money in Calendar Q4).

I think it's one thing for fans to moan and groan. It's another for investor. Nintendo needs to get on the ball and show something, even if they don't think it can make FY 2021. That said, I think there is some massive structural issues that are causing these delays and COVID just revealed them, but perhaps a story for another day.

Except Nintendo is not predicting to beat FY2019. Their forecast is roughly the same as last year and the report next week will show that they are way ahead thanks to Animal Crossing, Ring Fit and the corresponding hardware sales.

Investors won't care much because the cash flow is there. And pretty sure many of them have no idea what Nintendo actually does.

Nintendo makes most of their sales in the last quarter of the year. Being up in April and May doesn't means much. And sure, Nintendo may have projected fewer sales (I haven't looked into their most recent projects), but not having content for their biggest sales season doesn't help much. As an investor, why not just take those good results and sell your shares. Given everything, this seems like the best bet for investors right now. Nintendo isn't giving them any reason they'll even meet their projections.

Last edited by VideoGameAccountant - on 30 July 2020

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VideoGameAccountant said:
Shaunodon said:

Actually I'm glad someone mentioned this, because what Sony and Microsoft have shown actually help justify Nintendo's actions.

For Sony, the only upcoming game they have for the holidays is a short standalone-expansion for Spider-Man. It'll probably be good, but it's still only a short experience built upon a previous game.

For Microsoft, their Halo Infinite demo is the perfect example of why you shouldn't reveal or announce any games before they're ready, cause all they've done is hurt expectations for that title. Halo Infinite does not look like a game ready to release this year.

In contrast, if Nintendo feel like they should wait until the last minute to decide what big titles they can realistically have (properly)finished these holidays, I'm more than happy to wait. At least they're making sure whatever they have should be worth the wait.

It doesn't justify Nintendo's action. Both Sony and Microsoft are both releasing titles and new hardware in 2020. Both Sony and Microsoft have shown their line up for at least the near future, even if everything doesn't have a release date. That's more excusable when you have a new generation. Nintendo's issue is they can't even get one title out for the rest of the year. Nintendo had three years of strong earnings and cash flow and is only making for a single system, so they're inability to produce anything makes them look bad. Nintendo can't even do the bare minimum. 

Also, we're 5 months to the end of the year. If Nintendo doesn't know what they can or can't release now, than they have way bigger problems than the virus. 

It's not hard to know what Sony and Microsoft have in the near future, when it's literally one game each. For Sony, just a standalone-expansion even. For Microsoft, it may get delayed anyway. So if Nintendo just announced one game you'd stop losing sleep at night?

Stop talking about their inability to produce anything for the rest of the year, as if it's already set in stone. We're barely over half way through the year, and their current pattern has been to announce games shortly before release.

The games they've released so far this year have already been more than satisfactory. Most people already have a huge backlog on Switch to begin with. The Switch keeps selling out everywhere for a reason.

The only 'problems' are the ones you're creating for yourselves.



Shaunodon said:
VideoGameAccountant said:

It doesn't justify Nintendo's action. Both Sony and Microsoft are both releasing titles and new hardware in 2020. Both Sony and Microsoft have shown their line up for at least the near future, even if everything doesn't have a release date. That's more excusable when you have a new generation. Nintendo's issue is they can't even get one title out for the rest of the year. Nintendo had three years of strong earnings and cash flow and is only making for a single system, so they're inability to produce anything makes them look bad. Nintendo can't even do the bare minimum. 

Also, we're 5 months to the end of the year. If Nintendo doesn't know what they can or can't release now, than they have way bigger problems than the virus. 

It's not hard to know what Sony and Microsoft have in the near future, when it's literally one game each. For Sony, just a standalone-expansion even. For Microsoft, it may get delayed anyway. So if Nintendo just announced one game you'd stop losing sleep at night?

Stop talking about their inability to produce anything for the rest of the year, as if it's already set in stone. We're barely over half way through the year, and their current pattern has been to announce games shortly before release.

The games they've released so far this year have already been more than satisfactory. Most people already have a huge backlog on Switch to begin with. The Switch keeps selling out everywhere for a reason.

The only 'problems' are the ones you're creating for yourselves.

As I said on the outset, launching new hardware is far and beyond more difficult. Numerous systems have had a few releases early one and then the bulk of the new games people want come the following holiday. So their situation is more forgivable and they've actually announced other titles beyond 2020. Even still, Sony and Microsoft still have more titles than Nintendo has right now, which is none. 

And of course I'm going to keep pointing out their inability to release anything this year because thus far they have yet to prove me wrong. We are 5 months till the end of the year and 4 months till the start of the shopping season and we have nothing. In 2017, 2018 and 2019, we knew what titles Nintendo was going to release in the end of the year by this point. So sitting here in 2020 and Nintendo has nothing to show this late in the game, my assumption is going to be "they don't have anything." Why would I think otherwise.

Lastly, most games sell the most close to their release and that is true of Nintendo's games as well. Animal Crossing has likely sold most of what it will sell. All of Nintendo's other titles wont do  better than they did last year. 

And this brings me back to my initial point. If you are an investor, and you want to know what products the company plans to release in the fiscal year, and management just shrugs, then there is a problem. Saying "We're just going to keep selling Animal Crossing" isn't going to build confidence that management has any plans to keep the Switch selling. So they're just going to sell off. This is the reason Nintendo has to announce something, to show there are some future prospects. Right now, there aren't any prospects for the Switch and its looking more and more like Nintendo doesn't have any plans to change that. So no, it's not a me problem, it's a investor problem, and a problem for senior management. 

Last edited by VideoGameAccountant - on 01 August 2020

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Perhaps Rol is right. Maybe Nintendo is just sitting back watching the Switch fly off the shelves, and going... "Well shit, we could release or announce more games, but why do that when we could just hold off until Switch sales dip below 300K a week? The second Switch is finally back in stock at most retailers we can quickly release another system seller and watch it fly off shelves again! Mwhahahahahahahahaha!!!"



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I'm pretty confident (at this point) a Full Direct will be held in early September.
We just need to wait a bit more.



I’m a real gamer, so I will always have something to play on the Switch. You should be the same.



I am a Nintendo fanatic.

Marth said:
Cerebralbore101 said:
Perhaps Rol is right. Maybe Nintendo is just sitting back watching the Switch fly off the shelves, and going... "Well shit, we could release or announce more games, but why do that when we could just hold off until Switch sales dip below 300K a week? The second Switch is finally back in stock at most retailers we can quickly release another system seller and watch it fly off shelves again! Mwhahahahahahahahaha!!!"

I don't know if you are serious or not but Switch does still have severe stock issues all over the world. Another game that can push hardware sales would be very much overkill.

I'm serious though. It doesn't make any sense to advertise or do anything to push sales, when you can't keep up with the demand you already have. I'm sure sales will dip below 300K a week by Jan 2021. If Feb-May 2021 has 0 to 1 big new titles from Nintendo, that's when I'll start to worry.



Stellar_Fungk said:
I’m a real gamer, so I will always have something to play on the Switch. You should be the same.

That's a pretty ridiculous assumption. What if you've played hundreds of games in your life on over a dozen different consoles? That would certainly reduce some of the third-party possibilities on Switch. And some people would rather drop $60 on one exciting new game to play than buying cheaper games just to have something to play. 

And even if Switch has plenty of quality first and third-party games, there's a ton of bloat and shovelware. 



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 151 million (was 73, then 96, then 113 million, then 125 million, then 144 million)

PS5: 115 million (was 105 million) Xbox Series S/X: 57 million (was 60 million, then 67 million)

PS4: 120 mil (was 100 then 130 million, then 122 million) Xbox One: 51 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)

3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)

"Let go your earthly tether, enter the void, empty and become wind." - Guru Laghima

NightlyPoe said:
Cerebralbore101 said:

I'm serious though. It doesn't make any sense to advertise or do anything to push sales, when you can't keep up with the demand you already have. I'm sure sales will dip below 300K a week by Jan 2021

I feel like I'm stating the obvious, but money from software sales count.  Software is where the real money is after all.  Goosing hardware sales for a couple weeks in March is nice and all, but ignoring the supercharged sales environment an entire holiday cycle for it is a rather self-destructive strategy that could potentially cost Nintendo $100s of millions.

If Feb-May 2021 has 0 to 1 big new titles from Nintendo, that's when I'll start to worry.

So, we're officially lowering the bar to Nintendo releasing a single big title over the next 10 months to when we can start to worry?


Oof. You're right. Can I take that post back?