Staring into the abyss of a world where Nintendo has no games scheduled for release. Edit: The Time of Darkness Has Arrived

[VideoGameAccountant]

Shaunodon said:

VideoGameAccountant said:
I'm planning on writing an article on this, but the issue is that Nintendo is going into their earnings release with no titles and no prospects for the future. They can't really blame COVID because their peers (Sony and Microsoft) have no trouble showing off their upcoming titles. And they can't just get away with "We have numerous titles in development." If they have nothing, then investors should sell the stock because there is no reason to think 2020 can beat 2019, even with the initial boost in sales in April and May (Nintendo still makes most of their money in Calendar Q4).

I think it's one thing for fans to moan and groan. It's another for investor. Nintendo needs to get on the ball and show something, even if they don't think it can make FY 2021. That said, I think there is some massive structural issues that are causing these delays and COVID just revealed them, but perhaps a story for another day.

Actually I'm glad someone mentioned this, because what Sony and Microsoft have shown actually help justify Nintendo's actions.

For Sony, the only upcoming game they have for the holidays is a short standalone-expansion for Spider-Man. It'll probably be good, but it's still only a short experience built upon a previous game.

For Microsoft, their Halo Infinite demo is the perfect example of why you shouldn't reveal or announce any games before they're ready, cause all they've done is hurt expectations for that title. Halo Infinite does not look like a game ready to release this year.

In contrast, if Nintendo feel like they should wait until the last minute to decide what big titles they can realistically have (properly)finished these holidays, I'm more than happy to wait. At least they're making sure whatever they have should be worth the wait.

It doesn't justify Nintendo's action. Both Sony and Microsoft are both releasing titles and new hardware in 2020. Both Sony and Microsoft have shown their line up for at least the near future, even if everything doesn't have a release date. That's more excusable when you have a new generation. Nintendo's issue is they can't even get one title out for the rest of the year. Nintendo had three years of strong earnings and cash flow and is only making for a single system, so they're inability to produce anything makes them look bad. Nintendo can't even do the bare minimum. 

Also, we're 5 months to the end of the year. If Nintendo doesn't know what they can or can't release now, than they have way bigger problems than the virus. 

Marth said:

VideoGameAccountant said:
I'm planning on writing an article on this, but the issue is that Nintendo is going into their earnings release with no titles and no prospects for the future. They can't really blame COVID because their peers (Sony and Microsoft) have no trouble showing off their upcoming titles. And they can't just get away with "We have numerous titles in development." If they have nothing, then investors should sell the stock because there is no reason to think 2020 can beat 2019, even with the initial boost in sales in April and May (Nintendo still makes most of their money in Calendar Q4).

I think it's one thing for fans to moan and groan. It's another for investor. Nintendo needs to get on the ball and show something, even if they don't think it can make FY 2021. That said, I think there is some massive structural issues that are causing these delays and COVID just revealed them, but perhaps a story for another day.

Except Nintendo is not predicting to beat FY2019. Their forecast is roughly the same as last year and the report next week will show that they are way ahead thanks to Animal Crossing, Ring Fit and the corresponding hardware sales.

Investors won't care much because the cash flow is there. And pretty sure many of them have no idea what Nintendo actually does.

Nintendo makes most of their sales in the last quarter of the year. Being up in April and May doesn't means much. And sure, Nintendo may have projected fewer sales (I haven't looked into their most recent projects), but not having content for their biggest sales season doesn't help much. As an investor, why not just take those good results and sell your shares. Given everything, this seems like the best bet for investors right now. Nintendo isn't giving them any reason they'll even meet their projections.

Last edited by VideoGameAccountant - on 30 July 2020