Why is pokemon less likely to hit 25 mil? Last nintendo shipment update to dec 31 had SSBU at 17.68M BOTW at 16.34M and Pokemon SW/SH at 16.06
Pokemon was the last to release and is almost catching up to the others. In the Famitsu numbers it has outsold the other two in january and february so at least in japan is still selling faster and if the ww numbers are similar in ratio it should be above zelda in the next update.
Zelda BOTW is at 18.01M
The answer is North America market where Zelda BOTW has charted 32 months out of 34 months since it was released on the market.
In some European countries Zelda BOTW is already charting above Pokemon SwSh in weekly basis.
There's no doubt in Japan Pokemon SwSh outsells BOTW greatly but on the ROTW Zelda BOTW is remaining strong while SwSh is already struggling to keep up with the pace.
Pokemon is also very front load seller.
That exactly what happened during SMO vs BOTW in 2018.
SMO had opened at 9M while BOTW switch+WiiU was at 8.2, fast forward SMO is at 16.59M even with official bundled + Mario theme sales promotion while BOTW is at 18.01 without having none of SMO kind of sales deal.
If 3D Mario failed to keep up with BOTW's legs then Pokemon with much worse reputation in that part will performs much worse.
Smash Ultimate, on the other hand, is performing insanely well in NA and doing greatly in Japan.
I agree that Pokemon is usually really frontloaded but i think it is, recently, due to GF releasing 1 game a year, so people were waiting on the third version or passing for a year if the game wasn't appealing. But now, not only will it have 2 years atleast but also is being supported with more content and might get a definitive version including the DLC for the holidays.
That said, SMO will not cross 25 millions, Zelda has moderate chances, pretty good ones if we count the Wii U version but here it's Switch only i'm assuming or else MK8 would have like 30 millions. It will depend if the sequel will sink the sales or boost them, which i assume it's the latter since it's a direct sequel but who knows. It's still almost 9 millions away.
Even Smash could not reach it tbh and it is actually not disappointing, 25 millions for games like Smash and Zelda would be really crazy.
Animal crossing tho, the game on 3DS sold pretty well and it will obviously surpass it. Thing is, there hasn't been a mainline AC game in like 8 years so it's hard to measure at which point the franchise is more popular now. It got huge presence in Smash, it's mobile game did good and just word of mouth online is pretty crazy. I think 20 millions i pretty likely tho