Forums - General Discussion - Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread

You concerned yet?

Yes 88 48.62%
 
No, but I will be followi... 50 27.62%
 
No, its being overblown 43 23.76%
 
Total:181
SvennoJ said:
Hiku said:

Which asian countries are having trouble?

I thought things were fine in South Korea, Singapore, China, etc.

It's a mix, all over the place.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Select Asia plus yesterday and sort on new cases, top 15:

India leads by a mile but also has a bit more people to deal with.

Just a tiny bit more people. And somehow they're still not nearly as bad as USA.



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Hiku said:

Just a tiny bit more people. And somehow they're still not nearly as bad as USA.

Yep, growing steady though, but also not as fast as the USA is currently growing.

Less than an hour to go before the numbers roll over, 207K for the world atm, 54K for the USA.

Canada is stagnating a bit, the big ones


It's hot and social distancing is just a nuisance after all

The heat wave shows no signs of passing any time soon, over 30c for the next 7 days with up to 40c with the humidex.



Hiku said:
SvennoJ said:

It's a mix, all over the place.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Select Asia plus yesterday and sort on new cases, top 15:

India leads by a mile but also has a bit more people to deal with.

Just a tiny bit more people. And somehow they're still not nearly as bad as USA.

Tbf they might not be testing on the same level as the US.





7/3 Charts:

Back to back to back 50k+ days for the US.  It was supposed to go away with the heat.  When we had 15 cases it was supposed to be 0 very soon. It's supposed to just be a hoax.  Supposed to be just like the flu. 

That's 112k cases in just 2 days.  That's more cases than 195 nations and territories total. Only 17 have more than 112k total.  It is amazing how we have monumentally screwed this up.  Past 3 days...now we are encouraging on our total cases charts.  US past 3 days - 163,231. France total - 166,960.



Massimus - "Trump already has democrat support."

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jason1637 said:
Hiku said:

Just a tiny bit more people. And somehow they're still not nearly as bad as USA.

Tbf they might not be testing on the same level as the US.

True, India has only done 1/4th of the tests the USA has done. Tbf, India also started almost a month later.

USA: 36.3 million tests, 8.0% positivity rate
India: 9.3 million tests, 7.0% positivity rate

Not as many tests per million, but actually even better when it comes to positivity rate. India also has far less deaths (14% of the USA) and still less deaths per day (despite growing) but that's also partly because of the different age demographics.


Anyway, both not looking good at all.

The world is still at +12.5% growth week over week, 2 days in a row with 209K

The USA had its peak on Thursday this week (57K), but still 55K added today.
Daily reported deaths in the world are slowly heading upwards again. The USA is still declining but falling further behind Europe.

The continents

North and South America are having a race, NA stays ahead this week.
Africa's avg daily reported cases passed Europe's today.
Oceania is back on the board thanks to Australia's recent setback.

The different strategies

USA secured its lead over Brazil, India keeps climbing steadily.
Iran is staying exactly level, pretty much the same for Canada despite some delayed reporting.
Japan and Australia are back in trouble, South Korea can't shake off their latest outbreak.

Week over week

USA is growing the fastest and nobody made it under the 100% line :/
At least the rate of growth is going down a bit, maybe Brazil will finally start getting things under control.



I feel like US death rates haven't increased to what it was cause people are getting hospitalized at a much lower rate than before. Hospitalizations have been increasing but right now were at mid to late May levels of hospilaztion. It would probably take April levels of hospilaztion for deaths to spike.



jason1637 said:
I feel like US death rates haven't increased to what it was cause people are getting hospitalized at a much lower rate than before. Hospitalizations have been increasing but right now were at mid to late May levels of hospilaztion. It would probably take April levels of hospilaztion for deaths to spike.

It can take like 2-3 weeks for people to "die" to this virus.
So thats "June 13th to June 20th",  ei the people who are dying now, are mostly from before the "spike" of infections kicked off in the USA.

Give it 2-3 weeks and numbers should climb to reflect the 50k+ cases pr day.
If 19-22k daily cases from 2-3 weeks ago gives 600-700 deaths today.
Then 50k+ daily cases should in 2-3 weeks give 1400-1600 deaths pr day at some point.

The only positive is their saying that more of the confirmed cases are a younger demographics.
So maybe it doesn't rise nearly as much as that. It depends on when the younger gen, pass it onto their parents/grand parents.


"I feel like US death rates haven't increased to what it was"

Thats because daily cases used to be 40-45k at its peak in the USA.
Also back then, they didnt have any medicines to give, or know how to treat the virus. So naturally the people dieing was higher.

The deaths today (due to covid19) are from weeks ago, from before the effects of ending lockdowns resulted in spread increasing.
Thats why we say "death lags".

This virus doesnt kill you instantly.
Its not like  you go get tested, find out you have it, and instantly die.
Its a slow process, of you loseing a drawn out battle to it, potentially lasting like 3 weeks.

Last edited by JRPGfan - on 04 July 2020

JRPGfan said:
jason1637 said:
I feel like US death rates haven't increased to what it was cause people are getting hospitalized at a much lower rate than before. Hospitalizations have been increasing but right now were at mid to late May levels of hospilaztion. It would probably take April levels of hospilaztion for deaths to spike.

It can take like 2-3 weeks for people to "die" to this virus.
So thats "June 13th to June 20th",  ei the people who are dying now, are mostly from before the "spike" of infections kicked off in the USA.

Give it 2-3 weeks and numbers should climb to reflect the 50k+ cases pr day.
If 19-22k daily cases from 2-3 weeks ago gives 600-700 deaths today.
Then 50k+ daily cases should in 2-3 weeks give 1400-1600 deaths pr day at some point.

The only positive is their saying that more of the confirmed cases are a younger demographics.
So maybe it doesn't rise nearly as much as that. It depends on when the younger gen, pass it onto their parents/grand parents.


"I feel like US death rates haven't increased to what it was"

Thats because daily cases used to be 40-45k at its peak in the USA.
Also back then, they didnt have any medicines to give, or know how to treat the virus. So naturally the people dieing was higher.

The deaths today (due to covid19) are from weeks ago, from before the effects of ending lockdowns resulted in spread increasing.
Thats why we say "death lags".

This virus doesnt kill you instantly.
Its not like  you go get tested, find out you have it, and instantly die.
Its a slow process, of you loseing a drawn out battle to it, potentially lasting like 3 weeks.

Yep dying quickly is a rarity, avg time to death is 18.5 days after symptoms onset which is avg 4.5 days after getting infected. Then there's a delay in reporting after confirming it was covid-19. It can take far longer as well and even pulling through eventually doesn't mean its over

76 year old, on a ventilator for a month, she was in hospital for another seven weeks, and had to re-learn how to walk.
https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/i-had-to-fight-covid-19-sends-ontario-woman-on-87-day-battle-for-survival-1.5009124


And you're left with damaged lungs :(

https://www.wusa9.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/broadway-actor-nick-cordero-may-need-double-lung-transplant-after-covid-19-battle/507-1ca51c09-373e-43ce-8dfa-aa7766822edf


Women in her 20's...
https://globalnews.ca/news/7066642/coronavirus-lung-transplant-damage/
https://www.nm.org/healthbeat/medical-advances/covid-19-advances-in-care/double-lung-transplant-saves-patient-after-covid-19
That was what was left of one of her lungs...


Anyway, we'll see in 3 weeks what the CFR is for today's 50K+ daily cases. Testing is also improved nowadays compared to the previous peak, the percentage of missed cases should be lower nowadays thus also a lower CFR. Together with better treatment options and lower average age of newly infected the amount of reported deaths per day hopefully won't go back up to 2200.

Atm USA is a bit under 600 a day, same level as Mexico. Brazil is just over 1,000 a day, India passed the 400 a day.
For reference, Italy peaked at 813 7-day avg, Spain 866, UK 943, USA 2255.



SpokenTruth said:

It was supposed to go away with the heat.  When we had 15 cases it was supposed to be 0 very soon. It's supposed to just be a hoax.  Supposed to be just like the flu. 

The same geniuses that tell us climate change is nothing to worry about, btw. Just throwing that out there.