By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - General Discussion - Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread

chakkra on 12 November 2020
vivster said:
curl-6 said:
SvennoJ said:
curl-6 said:

It's not as cut and dried as that; antibodies naturally diminish over time as they're no longer needed once an infection is cleared; what's more important to lasting immunity are Memory T Cells and B Cells as these last much much longer and 'remember' past pathogens so that a fast and effective immune response can be mounted if it is ever encountered again.

It's still not quite clear how long Acquired Immunity lasts for COVID, including after vaccination, but there is some evidence for lasting and durable immunity thanks to these memory cells.

https://www.news-medical.net/news/20200908/Memory-B-cells-indicate-durable-immunity-in-COVID-19.aspx

Unfortunately there is also evidence that people can get re-infected and even someone who died after getting covid-19 for a second time.

The problem is, it simply takes time to find this out.

There have been instances of reinfection yes, but given how few they are in relation to the tens of millions of people who've contracted COVID, it's still quite probable that immunity applies in the vast majority of cases, otherwise surely we'd be seeing far more reinfections in places where the virus is rampant. But yes, time will tell.

I still maintain it is far too early to give up on immunization when we have dozens of vaccines in trials, using a wide variety of different methods, several of which have shown promising early data. 

There are a number of factors why we're seeing very few cases of reinfection.

1. The majority of covid cases have happened very recently

2. covid survivors are more likely to take measures to prevent another infection

3. a second infection may be less likely to have strong symptoms

4. some new infections may already be reinfections but are impossible to detect as such

Certainly not in my country. All the people I know that have been infected are walking around truly confident that they cannot be reinfected.



Around the Network
curl-6 on 12 November 2020

A vaccine from Canada-based Medicago starts combined Phase 2/3 trials: https://www.gsk.com/en-gb/media/press-releases/medicago-and-gsk-announce-start-of-phase-23-clinical-trials-of-adjuvanted-covid-19-vaccine-candidate/

vivster said:

There are a number of factors why we're seeing very few cases of reinfection.

1. The majority of covid cases have happened very recently

2. covid survivors are more likely to take measures to prevent another infection

3. a second infection may be less likely to have strong symptoms

4. some new infections may already be reinfections but are impossible to detect as such

There would still be way more verified cases of reinfection than there have been if it didn't confer any real immunity.



SvennoJ on 12 November 2020
curl-6 said:

A vaccine from Canada-based Medicago starts combined Phase 2/3 trials: https://www.gsk.com/en-gb/media/press-releases/medicago-and-gsk-announce-start-of-phase-23-clinical-trials-of-adjuvanted-covid-19-vaccine-candidate/

vivster said:

There are a number of factors why we're seeing very few cases of reinfection.

1. The majority of covid cases have happened very recently

2. covid survivors are more likely to take measures to prevent another infection

3. a second infection may be less likely to have strong symptoms

4. some new infections may already be reinfections but are impossible to detect as such

There would still be way more verified cases of reinfection than there have been if it didn't confer any real immunity.

Would it really?

Take Italy, they had found some 250K cases from the first wave. There are a bit over 60 million people in Italy. Chance to have been found positive from the first wave was about 0.4%.  Based on that, the chance to catch it twice is 0.0017%.

By now Italy has found another 750K cases, 0.4% or about 3,000 people could have been reported with Covid during the first wave. So yes, maybe we should have heard more about re-infections now.

Actually we did
https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/more-sars-cov-2-reinfections-reported-but-still-a-rare-event-68089

In his team’s analysis of hospital records of 100,432 individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2 between March and July 2020, only 285 (0.26 percent) presented signs that they’d contracted the virus twice.

Rare, yet the first wave was not that long ago and during the first wave most of the people that were tested already had severe symptoms triggering a bigger immune response. Plus the waves aren't necessarily hitting the same area twice.

As long as the vaccines last long enough to stop the circulation we should be good.



curl-6 on 12 November 2020
SvennoJ said:
curl-6 said:

A vaccine from Canada-based Medicago starts combined Phase 2/3 trials: https://www.gsk.com/en-gb/media/press-releases/medicago-and-gsk-announce-start-of-phase-23-clinical-trials-of-adjuvanted-covid-19-vaccine-candidate/

vivster said:

There are a number of factors why we're seeing very few cases of reinfection.

1. The majority of covid cases have happened very recently

2. covid survivors are more likely to take measures to prevent another infection

3. a second infection may be less likely to have strong symptoms

4. some new infections may already be reinfections but are impossible to detect as such

There would still be way more verified cases of reinfection than there have been if it didn't confer any real immunity.

Would it really?

Take Italy, they had found some 250K cases from the first wave. There are a bit over 60 million people in Italy. Chance to have been found positive from the first wave was about 0.4%.  Based on that, the chance to catch it twice is 0.0017%.

By now Italy has found another 750K cases, 0.4% or about 3,000 people could have been reported with Covid during the first wave. So yes, maybe we should have heard more about re-infections now.

Actually we did
https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/more-sars-cov-2-reinfections-reported-but-still-a-rare-event-68089

In his team’s analysis of hospital records of 100,432 individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2 between March and July 2020, only 285 (0.26 percent) presented signs that they’d contracted the virus twice.

Rare, yet the first wave was not that long ago and during the first wave most of the people that were tested already had severe symptoms triggering a bigger immune response. Plus the waves aren't necessarily hitting the same area twice.

As long as the vaccines last long enough to stop the circulation we should be good.

It is still a rare event though, and we know from looking at the blood of people who've been infected that the body doesn't just retain antibodies for several months after infection but also shows Memory B and T Cells which are key components of long lasting immunity.

Not everyone will gain an immunity, but that applies to most vaccines anyway, you don't need 100% immunity within a population to achieve herd immunity.

For example, the Herd Immunity Threshold, (HIT) or the percentage of the population that needs to be immune to prevent spread, is 80-86% for Smallpox and Polio.

The HIT for COVID-19 is not yet known, but one study suggests it could be as low as 43% to 60%, so vaccinating just two thirds of the population could be sufficient to prevents its spread. https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/06/200623111329.htm

Last edited by curl-6 - on 12 November 2020

SvennoJ on 12 November 2020

We're likely moving on to a new lock down

Ontario Premier Doug Ford said he "will not hesitate" to move forward to the next stage in the lockdown system and will make a decision on whether to do so by Friday after new COVID-19 modelling showed the province could see 6,500 new cases per day by mid-December.

Asking people to be more careful isn't working. 1575 new cases in the province today, over a 1.5x increase compared to last Thursday. He has been hesitating for weeks now, I wonder if he'll finally do it on Friday. Canada has just under 5,000 new cases today, every day a new record.



Around the Network
JRPGfan on 13 November 2020

Holy F***! US had ~162,000 cases yesterday, seeing numbers climb in 47 states?

thats alot of new infections pr day.



vivster on 13 November 2020
JRPGfan said:

Holy F***! US had ~162,000 cases yesterday, seeing numbers climb in 47 states?

thats alot of new infections pr day.

That's not corona, they're actually just sick of all that election fraud going on.



If you demand respect or gratitude for your volunteer work, you're doing volunteering wrong.

curl-6 on 13 November 2020

15 days in a row now with zero COVID-19 cases here in Victoria.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-14/victoria-coronavirus-15-days-of-zero-covid-cases-deaths/12883908

Masks and lockdowns work.



vivster on 13 November 2020

Meanwhile in Germanyland we have a new record in daily cases. Pretty sure we're gonna reach a new death record next week.Though I still don't know how our neighbors have even crazier numbers. I would've though the first wave already wiped out half of their population.



If you demand respect or gratitude for your volunteer work, you're doing volunteering wrong.

EricHiggin on 13 November 2020
vivster said:
JRPGfan said:

Holy F***! US had ~162,000 cases yesterday, seeing numbers climb in 47 states?

thats alot of new infections pr day.

That's not corona, they're actually just sick of all that election fraud going on.

Street protests + street celebrations are a recipe for covid disaster.

On a side note, saw in a clip that Elon Musk apparently tweeted he got 4 covid tests in a row, 2 showing positive and 2 showing negative?