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Forums - General Discussion - Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread

Yesterday I read that Mink farms have been infected in at least 6 countries already. The new mutation that can re-infect humans is at least not more deadly, but believed to be less hampered by anti bodies for the older strains for which vaccines are being made.

This shows how dangerous it is to go for herd immunity or have these soft measures and letting hospital capacity decide when to put the brakes on. Viruses mutate and change continually, the bigger the 'active pool' the faster it can mutate into something new. At the rate we're keeping this virus going, vaccines might not be able to stop it.


Lovely November day here today, 19c, no wind, blue skies. Never have I seen so many people out. Record numbers, record crowds, everywhere. I waded across the river with my kid to social distance lol. We had a lot of fun climbing over the rocks while watching waves of people go by on the trail on the other side. And this is in a small town, in the city nearby police started closing parks because of the crowds, which simply made the crowds move on to the next park to get even closer on top of each other. We're doomed.

The headlines today

Canada sets new COVID-19 record with 4,248 cases reported in one day
Quebec reports its highest ever daily increase of COVID-19 cases: 1,397 new cases and nine deaths
Ontario breaks another COVID-19 record with more than 1,300 new cases

On a Sunday....

Last edited by SvennoJ - on 08 November 2020

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LurkerJ said:

Not bad. But how many percent of the frogs were turned gay?



If you demand respect or gratitude for your volunteer work, you're doing volunteering wrong.

RolStoppable said:

I look at the poll and see that I selected "it's overblown" when this whole thing started. Now that the second lockdown is in progress, my stance is that the whole thing is overblown. Many months of data weren't properly considered, so this is a rushed decision to get the situation to settle down before Christmas. That's all this is about.

Restaurants had to close again despite the data not showing any high rates of COVID transmissions in those locations. The government could have kept them open with limited capacity (i.e. every other table has to remain free) and reduced opening times (i.e. have to close at 8 PM). Unsurprisingly, the biggest hazards are when people party hard, be it in private or in a pub or the like. That's what needed to be clamped down, but I suppose restaurants had to bite the bullet for the sake of solidarity with the pubs. At least school and major sports leagues continue, so the government hasn't gone full stupid.

EDIT: Paragraphs.

Here most of the outbreaks are in schools, and they stay open. Restaurants get restricted while they are least responsible for the second wave. We're following our roadmap to full lockdown, currently at stage orange, heading for red. New records every day.

The biggest hazards are when people are indoors together for a long time period. Schools are the worst for that as well as parties, crowded bars, night clubs. Yet restaurants have to close...

As long as there are still ICU beds available, we'll keep walking off that cliff.




LurkerJ said:

Good news, but it's still preliminary data.

"The company did not provide more details about those cases, and cautioned the initial protection rate might change by the time the study ends."

Soucy says its unclear whether it protects against asymptomatic cases because only those with symptoms were tested in the trial.

Dr. Gerald Evans, an infectious disease expert with Queen's University, is skeptical of the 90 per cent efficacy rate, since he expects trial participants would have been told to continue with other safety measures -- like keeping two metres distance from others and wearing masks -- after receiving their vaccine.

"It could be that those in the vaccine group were better at following the rules and that's why they didn't get COVID," Evans said. A full breakdown of participants in the trial would be helpful to see, he added.



While Soucy expects Pfizer's vaccine to gain approval soon, actually rolling it out will take time.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Monday he hopes to see a vaccine rollout in Canada early next year. But he noted some of the initial doses will require special handling that could complicate distribution efforts.

The Pfizer vaccine specifically needs to be stored at an ultra-low temperature. It's also dispensed in two doses, which requires people go back to a pharmacy or doctor's office to receive a second shot weeks after the first.


So keep social distancing and keep wearing masks, since this will still go on well into next year and possibly 2022. The good news, another 10 candidates are in stage 3, plus this certainly looks promising.



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Hiku said:
SvennoJ said:
LurkerJ said:

Good news, but it's still preliminary data.

"The company did not provide more details about those cases, and cautioned the initial protection rate might change by the time the study ends."

Soucy says its unclear whether it protects against asymptomatic cases because only those with symptoms were tested in the trial.

Dr. Gerald Evans, an infectious disease expert with Queen's University, is skeptical of the 90 per cent efficacy rate, since he expects trial participants would have been told to continue with other safety measures -- like keeping two metres distance from others and wearing masks -- after receiving their vaccine.

"It could be that those in the vaccine group were better at following the rules and that's why they didn't get COVID," Evans said. A full breakdown of participants in the trial would be helpful to see, he added.



While Soucy expects Pfizer's vaccine to gain approval soon, actually rolling it out will take time.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Monday he hopes to see a vaccine rollout in Canada early next year. But he noted some of the initial doses will require special handling that could complicate distribution efforts.

The Pfizer vaccine specifically needs to be stored at an ultra-low temperature. It's also dispensed in two doses, which requires people go back to a pharmacy or doctor's office to receive a second shot weeks after the first.


So keep social distancing and keep wearing masks, since this will still go on well into next year and possibly 2022. The good news, another 10 candidates are in stage 3, plus this certainly looks promising.

I figured they would be injected with Covid? Because there are people who volunteer for that.

But I'm also skeptical about this 90% rate for a different reason.
Did they state how long this lasts? Because a few months ago we heard that several researchers had observed a sharp decline in anti bodies after a few months. Would drop by 70-90% in 2-3 months.

So if that's the case here, and it's only effective for a month or two, it's going to be near useless I imagine.

It's not as cut and dried as that; antibodies naturally diminish over time as they're no longer needed once an infection is cleared; what's more important to lasting immunity are Memory T Cells and B Cells as these last much much longer and 'remember' past pathogens so that a fast and effective immune response can be mounted if it is ever encountered again.

It's still not quite clear how long Acquired Immunity lasts for COVID, including after vaccination, but there is some evidence for lasting and durable immunity thanks to these memory cells.

https://www.news-medical.net/news/20200908/Memory-B-cells-indicate-durable-immunity-in-COVID-19.aspx

Last edited by curl-6 - on 09 November 2020

Hiku said:
curl-6 said:

It's not as cut and dried as that; antibodies naturally diminish over time as they're no longer needed once an infection is cleared; what's more important to lasting immunity are Memory T Cells and B Cells as these last much much longer and 'remember' past pathogens so that a fast and effective immune response can be mounted if it is ever encountered again.

It's still not quite clear how long Acquired Immunity lasts for COVID, including after vaccination, but there is some evidence for lasting and durable immunity thanks to these memory cells.

https://www.news-medical.net/news/20200908/Memory-B-cells-indicate-durable-immunity-in-COVID-19.aspx

I don't recall those cells being mentioned in the article, so hopefully that's good news. But it did say that some of them had begun shifting away from working on a vaccine, and instead focused treatments, because of the rapid anti body decline.

It's good to cover your bases just in case, but I also think it's too early to give up hope for lasting immunity as ultimately we won't know how long it lasts until people have been vaccinated for long enough that it either wears off or persists. Antibodies dropping off fast isn't proof that immunity will be similarly short lived as ultimately its memory cells rather than antibodies that maintain long term immunity.

It could just be something you get a booster shot for every 10 years like Tetanus.

Last edited by curl-6 - on 09 November 2020

It's Pfizer, so I don't trust anything they say by default. It's obvious that whatever vaccine will hit the market first will be rushed. Not rushed because of dead people, but because of ungodly amounts of money. And with that kind of main motivation it can only end in drama.



If you demand respect or gratitude for your volunteer work, you're doing volunteering wrong.

It wasn't developed by Pfizer, they just finance (together with the German government), manufacture and distribute. The vaccine was developed by Biontech located in Mainz, Germany.



okr said:
It wasn't developed by Pfizer, they just finance (together with the German government), manufacture and distribute. The vaccine was developed by Biontech located in Mainz, Germany.

The only issue with this vaccine is for it to not go bad, it needs to be kept around -70 degree celcius.
Needing to be kept cold, to this degree actually makes distribution and handling alot more difficult.
If the plan is to vaccinate 100's of millions of people, the logistics of such a thing are a issue.