Forums - General Discussion - Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread

You concerned yet?

Yes 85 48.02%
 
No, but I will be followi... 50 28.25%
 
No, its being overblown 42 23.73%
 
Total:177

vivster said:
Looks like the US has infected Germany with a different kind of virus.

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-europe-52426378/coronavirus-berlin-march-against-lockdown-measures

Perfect example how irresponsible it is to teach "freedom" as an inherently positive human right without any nuance.

It will only get worse, people of Germany will take 1 look at sweden and wonder why they haft to wear face masks or be locked in their homes.

Believe me, before any German looks at Sweden and tries to emulate them we will eat our own babies. In Germany most people still rightfully trust politicians.



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Too much work needed, and it is less and less interesting as the situation is flattening in Europe.

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Trumpstyle said:
SvennoJ said:

The USA has brought back the earliest detected death in the states to Februari 6th
https://globalnews.ca/news/6856758/coronavirus-california-early-deaths/
That's in California though, first death on the east coast was end of Februari.

Februari 6th is still a month too late, while assuming the warnings in early March and the lock down on March 20th in NY didn't do anything in the beginning.

It's pretty certain there are far more undetected cases, yet 10 times more is stretching it to its limits. That's why I think that new 75x under reported estimate in Sweden is bollocks imho.


For those graphs: lockdown, 20 days later deaths are stabilized as expected.

It's progressing slower in Sweden, the current doubling rate for deaths is 10 days in Sweden. This does not support that anti body estimate at all.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/
The steepest slope in reported deaths in Sweden is from April 13th to April 16th (likely counting missed deaths since it went almost flat before that) that's a doubling rate of 5.6 days, the fastest that can be observed in the Swedish data.

So all evidence points to a slower progression of the virus in Sweden than R0 2.2 suggests, not faster!

1.3 million infected (75x current total reported) in Sweden would have taken 113 days to reach at the fastest observed doubling rate in the data (which is most definitely skewed due to under counting during Easter) That means the virus must have already been present in Sweden before Januari 3rd, yet the first reported death in Sweden was on March 11th.

It doesn't fit! Perhaps the early infections were all young and healthy people, last straw to grasp to make this work.

That's why I said speculating, I saw headlines saying they found the first covid victim in the US in Feb and they now gonna start looking in jan/dec months to see if the might have been earlier victims. Just because haven't been reported doesn't mean it hasn't happened.

About the R2.2 number, don't you need to know how long it takes for that person to spread it to 2.2 person. If it takes 1 or 5 days can make big different I saw a math model suggesting the infection can increase 256x each month. Our math dude here suggesting an R1.6 for stockholm to reach 30% infected at ~10 april.

"According to the curve that Tom Britton believes is most likely every virus-carrying person on average infects about 1.6 people when the spread was greatest, ie when the curve was at its steepest."

This is just a google translated quote from him.

For our daily dead, you can't look at reported numbers you see in the international media, as they are not when people died, here a correct graph for how many died at what date, it's the latest reported today. As you can see it started stabilise ~6 april and might peak around ~15 april.

Mars = March, apr is short for april.

vivster said:
Looks like the US has infected Germany with a different kind of virus.

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-europe-52426378/coronavirus-berlin-march-against-lockdown-measures

Perfect example how irresponsible it is to teach "freedom" as an inherently positive human right without any nuance.

It will only get worse, people of Germany will take 1 look at sweden and wonder why they haft to wear face masks or be locked in their homes.

Dude, it's been proven that Sweden is in for a spike, just because it hasn't happened yet early in the pandemic doesn't mean the virus which spreads for months before it explodes doesn't mean Sweden is safe. Sweden is ready to blow any day now.



 

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vivster said:

It will only get worse, people of Germany will take 1 look at sweden and wonder why they haft to wear face masks or be locked in their homes.

Believe me, before any German looks at Sweden and tries to emulate them we will eat our own babies. In Germany most people still rightfully trust politicians.

Hehe you guys will have no choice, you will mimic us :)

John2290 said:

Dude, it's been proven that Sweden is in for a spike, just because it hasn't happened yet early in the pandemic doesn't mean the virus which spreads for months before it explodes doesn't mean Sweden is safe. Sweden is ready to blow any day now.

Whatever happens, I will never wear a face mask, that is for certain.



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Trumpstyle said:

That's why I said speculating, I saw headlines saying they found the first covid victim in the US in Feb and they now gonna start looking in jan/dec months to see if the might have been earlier victims. Just because haven't been reported doesn't mean it hasn't happened.

About the R2.2 number, don't you need to know how long it takes for that person to spread it to 2.2 person. If it takes 1 or 5 days can make big different I saw a math model suggesting the infection can increase 256x each month. Our math dude here suggesting an R1.6 for stockholm to reach 30% infected at ~10 april.

"According to the curve that Tom Britton believes is most likely every virus-carrying person on average infects about 1.6 people when the spread was greatest, ie when the curve was at its steepest."

This is just a google translated quote from him.

For our daily dead, you can't look at reported numbers you see in the international media, as they are not when people died, here a correct graph for how many died at what date, it's the latest reported today. As you can see it started stabilise ~6 april and might peak around ~15 april.

Mars = March, apr is short for april.

vivster said:
Looks like the US has infected Germany with a different kind of virus.

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-europe-52426378/coronavirus-berlin-march-against-lockdown-measures

Perfect example how irresponsible it is to teach "freedom" as an inherently positive human right without any nuance.

It will only get worse, people of Germany will take 1 look at sweden and wonder why they haft to wear face masks or be locked in their homes.

Tom Britton should be taken with a huge grain of salt as he himself admits that his model has a high level of uncertainty, and that the virus is spreading slower than his model estimated.

And I very much doubt that a significant amount of Germans are looking at us and thinking "scheisse, if only we did as well as those damn Swedes".



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Trumpstyle said:

That's why I said speculating, I saw headlines saying they found the first covid victim in the US in Feb and they now gonna start looking in jan/dec months to see if the might have been earlier victims. Just because haven't been reported doesn't mean it hasn't happened.

About the R2.2 number, don't you need to know how long it takes for that person to spread it to 2.2 person. If it takes 1 or 5 days can make big different I saw a math model suggesting the infection can increase 256x each month. Our math dude here suggesting an R1.6 for stockholm to reach 30% infected at ~10 april.

"According to the curve that Tom Britton believes is most likely every virus-carrying person on average infects about 1.6 people when the spread was greatest, ie when the curve was at its steepest."

This is just a google translated quote from him.

For our daily dead, you can't look at reported numbers you see in the international media, as they are not when people died, here a correct graph for how many died at what date, it's the latest reported today. As you can see it started stabilise ~6 april and might peak around ~15 april.

Mars = March, apr is short for april.

Those corrected graphs (adding deaths to the day they happened, not the day the were reported) are not accurate for the back end. When later deaths get identified they get added to past columns, so you can't say that April 15th looks like a peak, since the data for 17 to 26 is still very incomplete.

What you can tell is that the spread of the virus is indeed a lot slower in Sweden. I wonder what math he used to get to 30% infected by April 10th with a R0 of 1.6. That's about a doubling rate of 7.5 days, which that graph supports.

Taking 1 million population for Stockholm, 300k infected by April 10th, it would take 6 infected people in Stockholm on December 12th to pull that off. Even though the incubation period is variable, just like quantum mechanics, over plenty time these systems behave in a very predictable way.

I wonder what kind of math he used? But who knows how long this virus has been around. Suspicious pneumonia cases were around in Italy in late November.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-timing/italian-scientists-investigate-possible-earlier-emergence-of-coronavirus-idUSKBN21D2IG

The mystery then becomes, why did it go undetected for so long.

Those earlier pneumonia cases could be something entirely different as well, for example 2018
https://www.thelocal.it/20180909/150-pneumonia-cases-spark-health-alert-in-north-italy
It definitely wasn't covid19 back then!



Trumpstyle said:

Hehe you guys will have no choice, you will mimic us :)

Whatever happens, I will never wear a face mask, that is for certain.

Why not? Wearing a mask is just a minor inconvenience and it can help stop the spread and ultimately save lives. 



Trumpstyle said:
vivster said:

Believe me, before any German looks at Sweden and tries to emulate them we will eat our own babies. In Germany most people still rightfully trust politicians.

Hehe you guys will have no choice, you will mimic us :)

John2290 said:

Dude, it's been proven that Sweden is in for a spike, just because it hasn't happened yet early in the pandemic doesn't mean the virus which spreads for months before it explodes doesn't mean Sweden is safe. Sweden is ready to blow any day now.

Whatever happens, I will never wear a face mask, that is for certain.

Well then you're a dick and putting others at risk. The mask isn't to protect you, it's to protect the people you drag you're ass around. I don't wanna wear them either put I've started to so incase I'm an asymptomatic spreader I keep my germs from spraying onto produce others will take into their homes or God forbid fill a room with Covid. You don't have to wear a mask but a time will come when you'll be seen as the trash of society for not doing so, don't be a dick and take it seriously for your country men and your family. 



 

China Numba wan!!

Trumpstyle said:
vivster said:

Believe me, before any German looks at Sweden and tries to emulate them we will eat our own babies. In Germany most people still rightfully trust politicians.

Hehe you guys will have no choice, you will mimic us :)

If at some point we start letting pure idiocy decide over life and death it won't be imported, it will be our own idiocy.



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last92 said:
Trumpstyle said:

Hehe you guys will have no choice, you will mimic us :)

Whatever happens, I will never wear a face mask, that is for certain.

Why not? Wearing a mask is just a minor inconvenience and it can help stop the spread and ultimately save lives. 

even if it only lowers the spread by ~10% it is more than worth the slight inconvenience