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| Trumpstyle said: Are you using face mask, I don't think you are. Face masks isn't a long term solution, we don't know when a Vaccine will arrive, I learned 2-3 days ago that the vaccine from Oxford/astrazeneca might not be good. In the Phase 1 trial all the monkeys actually got infected, we now know this after they made all the data public and they are running phase 2/3 simultaneously. The mers/sars virus has been around for 17 years and no vaccine has still been develop for it, and even if it is immunity might only last 3-6 months anyway. We getting more signs that the covid virus will basically be like the cold virus, everyone will get infected by it once or twice per year when things go back to normal. But we will have better medicine though. But it is accurate that in Germnay face masks are mandated in shops/public transportation, that why we are comparing Germany to Denmark/norway/Finland and probably soon Sweden to see how good face masks are. Our countries are pretty similiar. Well our government don't often update our R number, I think it was updated today even though it says it was released June 12. Last update was in one of my previous post back in April/may. The R number has been below 1 for a good time, that was I has been trying to say, the increase in confirmed cases is because of extra testing in healthcare personal and testing for people with lighter symptons, the spread of the virus is declining. We had some really good numbers today, 69 reported dead and 2889 new cases, this includes friday, saturday and sundays numbers. I was expecting over 4k new cases. As for more young people getting infected is confirming one of my idea, that the fatality rate of this virus will decline to 0.2-0,3% from 1% based on those antibody tests. If you can protect nursing homes better you can almost reduce the fatality rate by 50%, add in that the more vulnerable people will be extra careful we will see another decline in fatality rate. And with better remedies/medicine we will see another decline in fatality rate. There has been some talk about steroids from UK and plasma saving lives. That's why I think Texas/Arizona/Florida will be fine, unless they overload their hospital system. Our testing is a bit complicated, but from what I understand testing never stopped in Stockholm last week, they rolled out a new system last week where anyone can get tested without doctor/nurse approval or with any symptons. This was the first time we have done this in Sweden and the demand was just to high so they stopped testing that part. They still tests people with heavy symptons and randomly healthcare personal in Stockholm. Before we were just testing healthcare people, people with heavy symptons. And recently people with lighter symptons which happens in primary care (primärvården) which you mention in one of your previous post. So no region stopped testing last week, this is why we might beat Germany soon in confirmed cases per capita. We are testing so much that when someone get sick he/she can just get tested and self-isolate. For the charts you posted, we don't report numbers on weekends anymore and last friday was a holy day for us (midsummer) so no report last friday either. |
Last Friday+Saturday+Sunday+Monday was 2833, so 2889 is still higher while last week had that computer glitch added...
Sweden's normal was at 2,000 cases for Friday+Saturday+Sunday+Monday (it's been on that level for 5 weeks straight)
You can spin it all you want but the spread is not declining.
Sure, younger people have a much lower risk of death, yet they still get sick and can infect others, especially now those states are opening up work places again. Plus they can infect their parents and grandparents.
Btw Sweden is #57 for tests per million, Germany #40, 38K per million in Sweden, 60K per million in Germany.
Face masks will have to do for now, a working vaccine will be found. Yep that Astrazenaca virus might not be the best one:
The researchers found a single dose of the vaccine prevented all six vaccinated monkeys from developing pneumonia, but did not prevent infection outright. Some scientists not involved in the study welcomed the results as promising, but others also raised concerns that, if the results were replicated in humans, those vaccinated would probably still be able to transmit Covid-19.
Some context
However, the paper’s co-author Neeltje van Doremalen, of Rocky Mountain Laboratory, suggested that the monkeys had been exposed to a far higher viral load than most humans would be in real life. “I think people don’t realise how much virus we challenge with and how amazing it is to see none in the lungs. After a single shot of vaccine,” Prof Van Doremalen said on Twitter.
Immunologist Florian Krammer also added: “None of the vaccines in development will work with one shot (that’s just not how vaccines work). This was after one shot. The lung was protected. Two shots might be pretty solid.”
However, award-winning virologist Paul Bieniasz, said: “To be honest, the magnitude of the immune responses in macaques is a little underwhelming – what will protection be like six or 12 months post vaccination?” It is “unlikely” any potential Covid vaccine will be able to stop infection and offer life-long protection, said Prof Babak Javid, a infectious diseases consultant at Cambridge University Hospitals.
And good news
Others welcomed the fact that the macaque trials had found no evidence of immune-enhanced disease – a phenomenon that sees vaccinated people who do become infected end up suffering more severe illness. The phenomenon is a hazard of vaccines for respiratory viruses, and was one of the main obstacles to a successful Sars vaccine. “This was a definite theoretical concern for a vaccine against Sars Cov-2 and finding no evidence for it in this study is very encouraging,”
There are 125 other candidates in development as well.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
The mers/sars virus ran out of test bed when the virus was defeated. You can't do any efficacy tests (phase 3 trial) when nobody gets infected anymore! The vaccine wasn't needed anymore but work on the old vaccines have been picked back up.
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