Forums - General Discussion - Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread

You concerned yet?

Yes 85 48.02%
 
No, but I will be followi... 50 28.25%
 
No, its being overblown 42 23.73%
 
Total:177
JRPGfan said:
Okay Teequz, after reading your last post, it sounds like we mostly just talking past each other.
Also ofc the economy matters, and this wont go on forever.
So naturally there comes a point, where you have to ask weather its time to open things back up.

We're still not anywhere close to that point though.

Oh no, we certainly disagree as well, but the discussion will be fruitless (at least not worth the time it takes to research and formulate coherent arguments).

100 jobs gone per life saved is more than acceptable? I'm sure you have good intentions, but you haven't actually thought this through.

There are 150 million people employed in the US. This virus killing 1.5 million (~0.5% of the population) in America if it spreads unabated is very possible - and a huge tragedy. But if every single American has to lose their job to avoid it it is decidedly not worth it. 

Saving the economy is also a matter of saving lives. It's just less obvious than saving people from Covid-19. You and I are lucky to live in countries with strong social nets, and we were both probably very sheltered from how serious the Great Financial Crisis was - I know I was at least. In fact both of my parents are government employees and I'm a student so I'll be sheltered from the financial effects of this crisis as well. But the GFC caused millions of personal bankruptcies, homes were foreclosed. That affects your financial wellbeing - and your personal wellbeing - for the rest of your life. The economic fallout will lead to people not being able to afford proper health insurance, a good education, not to mention a decent quality of life.

Furthermore, we are currently in need of a huge transition to renewable energy and green technology. A massive financial downturn will drastically reduce both governments' and private companies' ability to do the required investments for that transition. The most accepted estimate is 200 million climate refugees by 2050. Which in turn will lead to huge conflicts and millions of lives lost every year (and further economic damage).

It's frustrating to see so many completely lose perspective, but I'm not going to spend any more of my evening arguing about this.



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RolStoppable said:
JRPGfan said:

I am not putting any stock in what Dr. Fauci says because the truth is that even experts make a lot of guesses. And of course the number of confirmed cases is growing when the number of tests is growing as well with each passing day.

The lost job to death ratio is well above 1,000:1, so your "even if 100 people lose their jobs for every 1 death" shows that you aren't aware of the numbers. You thought you are highballing, hence the "even if", but your statement was actually significant downplay of the magnitude. And no, people won't get their jobs back in a month or two when your side of the argument is that the lockdown shouldn't be reduced after Easter. That's the main point of contention here, after all. If you propose that the same strict measures have to continue because we are nowhere near the point to open things back up again, then the people who have lost their jobs won't have an opportunity to get rehired because businesses will continue to be closed.

"It's about saving lives" is something that the majority goes along with because it sounds morally good. I've touched on this in my prediction post yesterday. But such solidarity has limits and when living standards drop in both monetary value as well as social life, then people will begin to think more about themselves than anyone else. There are people who already had a hard time going through two weeks of measures and the next two weeks will feel even longer and more depressing. An outlook of an extension is bound to make them change their mind on solidarity, and the longer the measures continue, the louder the cries for a different approach will be.

1) I actually didnt know numbers of job losses, but ment to write 1000 pr deaths.

2) "get their jobs back in a month or two"  (after the shutdown ends, thought this part didnt need to be said)

3) "solidarity has limits and when living standards drop in both monetary value as well as social life, then people will begin to think more about themselves than anyone else. There are people who already had a hard time going through two weeks of measures and the next two weeks will feel even longer and more depressing. An outlook of an extension is bound to make them change their mind on solidarity, and the longer the measures continue, the louder the cries for a different approach will be."

This is the sad part... even if its unsafe, risks killing yourself or others, or surviveing with damaged organs... people will likely still reach that point.
Virus sucks.



LurkerJ said:
JRPGfan said:



If you are too lax on preventing spread, those numbers could climb drastically.

But even the experts are telling you we're trying to flatten the curve rather than stop the spreading. The same number will be infected in both scenarios, more people will manage to survive if the curve is flattened. Flattening the curve will NOT alter the course of the disease or change the total number of infected individual.

Almost all of those who will get their lungs scarred by the virus will get their lungs scarred in both scenarios (flattening the curve or letting it peak), almost all of those who will end up damaged kidneys will get damaged kidneys regardless of how flat the curve is, so on so forth. The ONLY medical intervention that could benefit from flattening the curve as of now is artificial ventilation, which only helps a SUBSET of people and mostly the elderly. One could argue flattening the curve would buy us some time to get more ventilators and hospital space ready but at what cost? 

The coronavirus and the rhinovirus have been causing the common cold for so long, the flu has been around since forever, no effective medication was ever effective against those. Humans are terrible at making medications against viruses, but sometimes brilliant at making vaccines. How long until one is ready though? 

I think you're confusing mitigation with flattening the curve. to flatten it enough so the health care system can cope would mean to drawn it out over a decade or more.
https://medium.com/@joschabach/flattening-the-curve-is-a-deadly-delusion-eea324fe9727

The hammer and dance is what we're looking at as the best strategy: (but called flattening the curve by the media, better soundbite)
https://www.rappler.com/thought-leaders/255968-analysis-beating-coronavirus-covid-19-hammer-and-dance

Currently we're in the suppression phase to get the spread under control. Then it becomes a matter of managing it until widespread vaccines are available. It is not the goal to flatten the curve so it can spread through the entire population while the healthcare system tries to keep up. That would take far too long. The goal is to minimize infections and work out a balance between getting on with life while keeping the virus under our thumb until a vaccine can end it.

https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2020/3/6/21161234/coronavirus-covid-19-science-outbreak-ends-endemic-vaccine

A vaccine will take between 9 and 18 months, depending on success and red tape obstacles. There is also promising research in anti bodies that can fight this virus, however while that can be ready much sooner, it will also be a lot more costly to produce than a vaccine. Thus it's still necessary to keep the nr of infected low.

The same number will be infected in both scenarios
Absolutely not. If that happens we will have failed completely.



1 million is so bad, I wonder what the ceiling is for this 10-15 million!?! 50 milloon?? 



PortisheadBiscuit said:

1 million is so bad, I wonder what the ceiling is for this 10-15 million!?! 50 milloon?? 

Cases? The ceiling is at least 50% of the planet and likely three quarters. Cases sick enough to realise they need testing is another story. 



 

China Numba wan!!

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^ italy officals admit, that they only counted at hospitals, anyone who died at home/nurseing homes, wherent included.

Same thing basically played out everywhere, spain, franch, even the UK.
Actual deaths caused by this are much higher than the reported numbers, basically everywhere.



trunkswd said:
John2290 said:

It looks like China is getting their second wave altough it's not confirmed, it just looks like they are taking measures again. If this is the case @vivster might be able to go to Japan in October unless there is a third wave, or the first and second waves weren't big enough or a countless amount of other factors but I'll say i've never wanted someone to be allowed into Japan so much in my life, I hope you get that trip Vivster, I'm honeslty routing for ya, Your Japan Trip means a better future for us all. 

I hope Vivster is able to go to Japan. It is an amazing country from what I've seen. I'm an American that spent 6 months in the UK from August to February of this year. I got the chance to see a decent amount of the country. It's a beautiful place that is similar and yet very different from my home in New York. 

Don't worry, it would be my 3rd visit and I have already planned trips there for the next 3 years.



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vivster said:
trunkswd said:

I hope Vivster is able to go to Japan. It is an amazing country from what I've seen. I'm an American that spent 6 months in the UK from August to February of this year. I got the chance to see a decent amount of the country. It's a beautiful place that is similar and yet very different from my home in New York. 

Don't worry, it would be my 3rd visit and I have already planned trips there for the next 3 years.

Oh okay. Good to know. I've never been. Though I did spend 6 months in the UK. For an American it was interesting seeing a culture so similar and yet so different. 



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LurkerJ said:
JRPGfan said:



If you are too lax on preventing spread, those numbers could climb drastically.

But even the experts are telling you we're trying to flatten the curve rather than stop the spreading. The same number will be infected in both scenarios, more people will manage to survive if the curve is flattened. Flattening the curve will NOT alter the course of the disease or change the total number of infected individual.

The asian countries were able to contain the epidemic. That includes even China. They had to lock down the Hubei province, but the rest of the country had taken way milder actions and therefore wasn't bogged down economically that hard. So why only try to spread the time for infections, if we can defeat it completely?



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trunkswd said:
vivster said:

Don't worry, it would be my 3rd visit and I have already planned trips there for the next 3 years.

Oh okay. Good to know. I've never been. Though I did spend 6 months in the UK. For an American it was interesting seeing a culture so similar and yet so different. 

Well, I knew Japan is the best country long before I went there and when I first visited 2 years ago it just confirmed that fact. Now it's a yearly tradition and if all goes well I'll be living there some day.



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