I never alleged the virus was engineered. It got out into the open because of a lab accident, helped in part by shoddy safety protocols.

This story is not going away - time will tell what the actual truth is.

Then lets look at Stockholm numbers, as a exsample:

When other countries talk about "dark numbers" (infection you dont know about) its usually by around a factor of 10 or so.

In stockholm sweden claims it has ~5400 confirmed cases of coronavirus (out of the 13,000+).

This is a area with a population of 975,000+.
If ~10% of your population there, really had the virus, the confirmed cases numbers would be much much higher than just the ~5400 reported now.

5%-10% of 975k = ~49,000 to ~97,500 infected.

Going by the factor of 10, rule, Stockhold might actually have around 5% there infected with the virus.

That still means infection needs to spread atleast 10 times as much as it currently has (more other places in sweden).

Stockholm has like 820 deaths to coronavirus (probably slightly higher, since no country has 100% right numbers).
Stockholm has ~440 in the ICU, and probably half of these people will die to it.

Lets say thats the "base" rate now, around 1000 deaths.

To reach 50% infected numbers, that means your 5% rate -> 50% which is a factor of 10.
Those 1000 deaths -> 10,000 deaths in stockholm before 50% rate is hit.

Stockholm is around 1/10th of sweden (975k out of 10,3m).
If the same numbers play out in the rest of sweden (and why wouldnt it, if your allowing herd immunity to reach 50%+).

10,000 x 10 = 100,000+ deaths.

Also with 50% herd immunity your only "half" safe.
Thats when infection start to drop.

This means deaths will keep on going up, for abit even after 50% rate is reached.

Sweden is basically allowing 100k+ people to die, by chooseing this methode, that it might have saved the vast majority off.

We dont even have proof you get immunity yet (most assume you do though).
We dont know how long it lasts (in general) if it does.
Even if immunity works, if the virus mutates, then next year, your "herd immunity" might not mean anything.... same problem can hit again.

Thats why I think Sweden is takeing a huge risk.

You can't base your numbers on comfirmed cases, as I said we don't do many tests at all, a math professor here (Tom britton) said about 30% in stockholm right now has been affected by the virus and 50-60% will be affected in May, so it looks indeed we will achieve herd immunity in Stockholm by May.

"- The day when most people became infected occurred quite recently, in my opinion. Maybe five days ago, Britton, professor of mathematical statistics at Stockholm University, told SvD.

He estimates that about a third of the capital's residents carry or have carried the virus today, and that flock immunity - then around 60 percent are sick or have become immune - is achieved in May."

"- In a month's time, we might be around 50 percent. But there is no razor sharp border. When half of the inhabitants have or have had the virus, the spread becomes slower."

Source: https://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=auto&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.svd.se%2Fprofessor-stockholm-kan-na-flockimmunitet-i-maj

Swedish version: https://www.svd.se/professor-stockholm-kan-na-flockimmunitet-i-maj

We shall see, but I expect pretty much every country will mimic us here in sweden, there's no need for mass testing, surveillance/tracing or face masks. Just let the virus spread but not to fast as you get an situation like Italy than.

Let's not forget reports of "recovered" people with massive (and possibly permanent) damage to their lungs. That alone speaks volumes against the herd mentality. As long as we don't know the long term effects (how many of the recovered people have damaged systems? Do they need medical care for years?), I think it is simply gambling without even knowing the odds.

Okey guys, I just recently found out why we here in sweden are doing completely the opposite what the rest of the world is doing.

There was some kind of math model called Imperial college london which had very pessimistic numbers, it was from this model Donald trump got his 2.2 million people in america would die if he did nothing. But it seems the entire world is basing their decisions on this model.

Our virus dude (Anders Tegnell) throw this model in the garbage can when he saw it, and don't follow it at all, he follows something called evidence based medicine. Now I know why he was so far ahead of everyone else and only our previous virus dude could rival him.

Having watched Johan Giesecke explain the #COVID19sweden strategy the situation feels very clear to me: @SwedishGov has chosen to trust in evidence based medicine. The rest of the western world has put it's trust in #science instead. #svpol #svmed https://t.co/OfeSBK3nBM

— Björn Smedman (@bjornsing) April 18, 2020

Edit: you need to click on the "date" to get to the tweet link!

Prof. John Giesecke believes that mortality is 0.1% (he says so in the video).

Theres about ~6000+ nurseing home deaths in the UK, that are likely Covid19.
Ontop of the 16,000+ deaths the UK already has.

This means that a country like the UK with a population of 66million, if 0.1% mortality is true, already has 1/3 of its population infected?

Do you actually believe that?

Wouldnt this be easy to prove? in the UK just go test 10,000 random people and see if 1/3 of them have it.
If they do, John Giesecke is right.
If they dont, John Giesecke is wrong.<

(66million 0.1% (0.001) = 66,000+, with their current ~22,000 deaths, (60k/22k = 1/3rd))

Well, with 40 thousand American souls lost going into extended lockdowns, I'd say he chose the wrong model esspecially when most countries are saying they've only got half the mortality data. I don't know what the end result is here, wheter it's the high end or the low end but we KNOW it's not the low end already and if it's even in the middle, 150 thousand Swedes will die should the virus gind it's way into every nook and cranny. So say, one third of the population gets infected this year which would seem likely in this middle of the road look at things and 50k dead. Problem is, once the hospitals start to triage, even if it falls to something more optimistic on the virus side the death rate will rise within hospitals from other occurances as well as a narrowing of the recovery rate and not to mention the effect this will have on society and the economy in the form of a lack of a loss of essential workforce, the collapse of knots along the supply line, a loss of essential services like electricity, water, etc.

We are all fucked, every country in the world is fucked by this to some degree, Sweden just chose to be a little more fucked than others. 

Prof. John Giesecke believes that mortality is 0.1% (he says so in the video).

Theres about ~6000+ nurseing home deaths in the UK, that are likely Covid19.
Ontop of the 16,000+ deaths the UK already has.

This means that a country like the UK with a population of 66million, if 0.1% mortality is true, already has 1/3 of its population infected?

Do you actually believe that?

Wouldnt this be easy to prove? in the UK just go test 10,000 random people and see if 1/3 of them have it.
If they do, John Giesecke is right.
If they dont, John Giesecke is wrong.<

(66million 0.1% (0.001) = 66,000+, with their current ~22,000 deaths, (60k/22k = 1/3rd))

Not necessarily, since the people getting the virus might be a biased sample that leans older than the average population, as it would be the case if it spread through retirement homes. That's what happened in some towns in Lombardy and Veneto.

That being said, 0.1% is probably too low, unless viral load is a huge factor and these people in hospitals, retirement homes, ships etc. are getting a far more severe disease than what would be expected for the average Joe. That can happen with other diseases like tuberculosis, where prison outbreaks can be very dangerous to the individual because of the effects of overcrowding.

OT - that is Milan yesterday:

SMH at the old dude, come on, he isn't even trying. The woman on the background also wearing a mask on the chin... I'll never understand.