Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread

[haxxiy]

JRPGfan said:

Trumpstyle said:

Prof. John Giesecke believes that mortality is 0.1% (he says so in the video).

Theres about ~6000+ nurseing home deaths in the UK, that are likely Covid19.
Ontop of the 16,000+ deaths the UK already has.

This means that a country like the UK with a population of 66million, if 0.1% mortality is true, already has 1/3 of its population infected?

Do you actually believe that?

Wouldnt this be easy to prove? in the UK just go test 10,000 random people and see if 1/3 of them have it.
If they do, John Giesecke is right.
If they dont, John Giesecke is wrong.<

(66million 0.1% (0.001) = 66,000+, with their current ~22,000 deaths, (60k/22k = 1/3rd))

Not necessarily, since the people getting the virus might be a biased sample that leans older than the average population, as it would be the case if it spread through retirement homes. That's what happened in some towns in Lombardy and Veneto.

That being said, 0.1% is probably too low, unless viral load is a huge factor and these people in hospitals, retirement homes, ships etc. are getting a far more severe disease than what would be expected for the average Joe. That can happen with other diseases like tuberculosis, where prison outbreaks can be very dangerous to the individual because of the effects of overcrowding.

OT - that is Milan yesterday:

SMH at the old dude, come on, he isn't even trying. The woman on the background also wearing a mask on the chin... I'll never understand.