Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread

[Trumpstyle]

JRPGfan said:

Then lets look at Stockholm numbers, as a exsample:

When other countries talk about "dark numbers" (infection you dont know about) its usually by around a factor of 10 or so.

In stockholm sweden claims it has ~5400 confirmed cases of coronavirus (out of the 13,000+).

This is a area with a population of 975,000+.
If ~10% of your population there, really had the virus, the confirmed cases numbers would be much much higher than just the ~5400 reported now.

5%-10% of 975k = ~49,000 to ~97,500 infected.

Going by the factor of 10, rule, Stockhold might actually have around 5% there infected with the virus.

That still means infection needs to spread atleast 10 times as much as it currently has (more other places in sweden).

Stockholm has like 820 deaths to coronavirus (probably slightly higher, since no country has 100% right numbers).
Stockholm has ~440 in the ICU, and probably half of these people will die to it.

Lets say thats the "base" rate now, around 1000 deaths.

To reach 50% infected numbers, that means your 5% rate -> 50% which is a factor of 10.
Those 1000 deaths -> 10,000 deaths in stockholm before 50% rate is hit.

Stockholm is around 1/10th of sweden (975k out of 10,3m).
If the same numbers play out in the rest of sweden (and why wouldnt it, if your allowing herd immunity to reach 50%+).

10,000 x 10 = 100,000+ deaths.

Also with 50% herd immunity your only "half" safe.
Thats when infection start to drop.

This means deaths will keep on going up, for abit even after 50% rate is reached.

Sweden is basically allowing 100k+ people to die, by chooseing this methode, that it might have saved the vast majority off.

You can't base your numbers on comfirmed cases, as I said we don't do many tests at all, a math professor here (Tom britton) said about 30% in stockholm right now has been affected by the virus and 50-60% will be affected in May, so it looks indeed we will achieve herd immunity in Stockholm by May.

"- The day when most people became infected occurred quite recently, in my opinion. Maybe five days ago, Britton, professor of mathematical statistics at Stockholm University, told SvD.

He estimates that about a third of the capital's residents carry or have carried the virus today, and that flock immunity - then around 60 percent are sick or have become immune - is achieved in May."

"- In a month's time, we might be around 50 percent. But there is no razor sharp border. When half of the inhabitants have or have had the virus, the spread becomes slower."

Source: https://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=auto&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.svd.se%2Fprofessor-stockholm-kan-na-flockimmunitet-i-maj

Swedish version: https://www.svd.se/professor-stockholm-kan-na-flockimmunitet-i-maj

We shall see, but I expect pretty much every country will mimic us here in sweden, there's no need for mass testing, surveillance/tracing or face masks. Just let the virus spread but not to fast as you get an situation like Italy than.

Last edited by Trumpstyle - on 19 April 2020