Trumpstyle said:
You can't base your numbers on comfirmed cases, as I said we don't do many tests at all, a math professor here (Tom britton) said about 30% in stockholm right now has been affected by the virus and 50-60% will be affected in May, so it looks indeed we will achieve herd immunity in Stockholm by May.
"- The day when most people became infected occurred quite recently, in my opinion. Maybe five days ago, Britton, professor of mathematical statistics at Stockholm University, told SvD. He estimates that about a third of the capital's residents carry or have carried the virus today, and that flock immunity - then around 60 percent are sick or have become immune - is achieved in May." "- In a month's time, we might be around 50 percent. But there is no razor sharp border. When half of the inhabitants have or have had the virus, the spread becomes slower." Swedish version: https://www.svd.se/professor-stockholm-kan-na-flockimmunitet-i-maj We shall see, but I expect pretty much every country will mimic us here in sweden, there's no need for mass testing, surveillance/tracing or face masks. Just let the virus spread but not to fast as you get an situation like Italy than. |
Listen to this interview with him: https://sverigesradio.se/sida/artikel.aspx?programid=2054&artikel=7443833
(I googled after your posting)
Tom britton
A mathematical calculation following his models, assumeing 1million swedes are already infected.
(I wrote down his words here:)
"this has to do with looking at the death numbers, but... then the people that die now, they were infected 3 weeks earlier, but then through others infected as well, and then you project forwards in time. If you run a projected model, and see what happends, were you sort of calibrate it too what has happend up to now, and then if you due that.. and then your conclusion is now..... these curves, the curves you know, it has a peak, a middle, and then it starts dropping again, and this peak in the middle, is during april. April is the time when most detections will happend, and after april the rate of new infections will start declineing. The one day where most people will get infected is PROBABLY sometime in ah... mid april, ofcourse there is uncertainty with my statements, so it could be april 5, april 10, april 15, april 20, april 25.... Im not... errh... theres definately some uncertainty, but I will be very surprised if the actual peak does not happend in april. Sometime in april the peak day will be, and my good guess would be april 15."
- Tom Britton
At this point I stopped listening.
Maybe its just because hes bad at english..... maybe its because he sounds sooooooo damn uncertain about everything.
I wouldnt place my "life" into this mans hands, and his theories.
I dont believe theres already 1m+ in sweden infected.
This mans mathematical models are flawed, from this point alone, imo.
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